ORAWEK
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SUNDAY, 24 MAY 2026 · WEEKDAY EDITION
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Bangladesh Economy — BB Stimulus, ADP Miss & RMG Pressure
BB launches Tk 60,000cr stimulus to reopen closed factories — targeting 2.5 million jobs
Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman unveiled a Tk 60,000 crore ($4.9 billion) stimulus package on Saturday 23 May at the central bank's Motijheel headquarters. The fund is split into two components: Tk 41,000 crore via a refinancing scheme sourced from commercial banks with excess liquidity (3-year deposits at 10%), and Tk 19,000 crore from BB's own funds under government guarantee. Large industries borrow at 7% interest (customer level), with a 6% government interest subsidy. The largest single allocation — Tk 20,000 crore — goes to reopening closed industries; followed by Tk 10,000 crore for agriculture, Tk 5,000 crore for CMSMEs, Tk 5,000 crore for pre-shipment credit, and targeted sub-funds for leather, frozen shrimp, startups, green finance, and youth employment. BB projects the package will create ~2.5 million direct and indirect jobs. This is the largest single countercyclical injection in Bangladesh's post-uprising economic recovery effort.
ADP spending edges up to 41.4% in 10 months of FY26 — but still Tk 6,908cr short of last year in absolute terms
Development spending under the Annual Development Programme reached Tk 86,516 crore in the first 10 months of FY26 (July–April), a 41.41% execution rate against the revised Tk 2.08 lakh crore allocation — marginally higher than the 41.31% rate in the same period of FY25. However, the absolute spending is Tk 6,908 crore lower year-on-year, because FY25's revised ADP was larger at Tk 2.16 lakh crore. Context: 10-month ADP execution was 49.26% in FY24, 50.33% in FY23, and 54.57% in FY22. The trendline is structurally declining. April alone recorded a 5.22% monthly spending uptick — a sign the new BNP government is trying to accelerate implementation with 18 June budget day approaching.
Bangladesh apparel exports to EU plunged in Jan–Feb 2026; ADB flags LDC graduation debt risks ahead of November transition
Eurostat data for January 2026 shows Bangladesh's garment exports to the EU dropped to €1.43 billion — a 25.25% fall in value, with a 17.49% volume decline and a 9.41% price drop per kg simultaneously. February overall merchandise exports also fell 12% to $3.49 billion (EPB). The ADB has separately flagged that Bangladesh's November 2026 LDC graduation will bring rising debt pressures: loss of concessional lending from IDA and ADB, exposure to market-rate financing, and potential export tariff shocks of 9–12% in EU markets from 2029. The World Bank is meanwhile raising $20 billion in fast-disbursing finance within FY26 to cushion LDC-graduating economies globally.
📌 Stimulus Signal — Tk 60,000 crore sounds large. The real test is disbursement speed and borrower eligibility verification. The last big refinancing push (COVID-era Tk 20,000cr package) suffered from slow last-mile delivery and ghost borrowers. Professionals in banking and industry should watch Q1 FY27 credit growth data — that will show whether this capital actually reaches closed factory floors.
📌 ADB Graduation Warning — November 2026 LDC graduation is now 6 months away. With no GSP-Plus agreement secured yet, every Dhaka CFO with EU-bound export revenue should be running post-2029 tariff scenarios now. The grace period ends — it does not extend automatically.
Economy Watch
H2 Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 24 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
~122.91 ৳
Mid-market 23 May · 30-day range: 122.70–123.03 · BB interbank · Taka stable; BB continuing dollar purchases to manage appreciation pressure
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.99–18.06 ৳
Mid-market · Cross-rate via USD/CNY · Stable for BD–China importers this week; note CNY has appreciated ~8% vs BDT over the past 12 months
DSEX — Last Close (Sun 24 May opens today)
5,264.12 pts
▲ +41.74 (+0.80%) — Thu 21 May close · DSE closed Fri 22 May (holiday) · First session of the week opens today Sunday 24 May
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,35,963 ৳
▼ Down Tk 4,374 from prior rate · BAJUS effective 16 May · International spot ~$3,230–3,250/oz · Iran deal optimism caps safe-haven demand
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% in Mar '26 · Food inflation easing · Brent above $100 creates upside risk for May print · ADB FY26 forecast: 9.0%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Bank lending at 15–16% · Next MPC review pending · New Tk 60,000cr stimulus at subsidised 7% rate suggests targeted rate relief rather than broad cut
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Partly reflects rescheduling rule changes · Sector CRAR: −2.9% (negative) · BB also restricts cash dividends for banks with paid-up capital below Tk 2,000cr
GDP Growth FY26 (Forecast Range)
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49% · ADB flags LDC graduation risks to near-term growth path
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Sunday Morning, 24 May
| Brent Crude — Fri 22 May close TradingEconomics / OilPrice.com · 22 May 2026 | ~$103.94/bbl ▲ +1.33% · Rose after Iran's Supreme Leader ordered enriched uranium to stay in-country — complicating US nuclear talks. Still down 6%+ week-on-week as markets price in possible eventual deal. Brent above $100 sustains LNG import cost pressure and Biman fuel headwinds through June. |
| WTI Crude — Fri 22 May close TradingEconomics · 22 May 2026 | ~$97/bbl · Climbed on Hormuz/Iran supply fears · Sec State Rubio cited "slight progress" in Iran nuclear talks; Pakistani mediators en route to Tehran · No deal timeline · Week range: ~$87–$110+ |
| Wall St — Friday 22 May close Investing.com / TheStreet · 22 May 2026 | Dow ▲ +294 pts (+0.58%) to 50,579.70 — new record close · S&P 500 ▲ +0.37% to 7,473.47 · Nasdaq ▲ +0.19% to 26,343.97 · All sectors green except Communications · US markets closed Monday 25 May (Memorial Day) — next session Tuesday 26 May |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve / TradingEconomics · May 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC · FOMC minutes (20 May) showed most officials lean toward hikes if Iran-linked inflation persists · CME FedWatch pricing hike (not cut) for late 2026 · Kevin Warsh chairs after Powell's departure |
| Bitcoin — 22–23 May Fortune / Yahoo Finance · 22 May 2026 | ~$76,860–77,500 · Stable range · Down sharply from Oct 2025 ATH ~$126,000 · "CLARITY Act" passage improves long-term regulatory outlook but macro headwinds (Iran, high Treasury yields) cap near-term upside |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran Reuters / Al Jazeera · 22–23 May 2026 | Iran-Oman "maritime toll" framework rejected by Trump; enriched uranium ordered to remain in-country — key sticking point in nuclear negotiations. Pakistani mediators expected in Tehran. No ceasefire. Full Hormuz reopening still months away at minimum. BD implication: every $1 rise in Brent costs Biman and state oil importer BPC additional crores monthly. |
| US–China Tariff / BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka / CNBC · May 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% · BD–US: 19% base tariff in effect · Section 122 appeal live · BD confirmed 2nd-largest US apparel supplier but capturing minimal China-diversion share; Vietnam & Cambodia gaining. No breakthrough this week. |
| India–Bangladesh Trade Dhaka Tribune / BBS · 22 May 2026 | India overtook US as BD's 2nd-largest trading partner (8.47% vs 8.46% of total trade through Feb 2026). India exporting diesel via pipeline amid BD LNG shortage. China remains #1 at 21.21%. EAM Jaishankar reiterating engagement with Tarique Rahman government. |
| Israel–Gaza / Middle East Reuters · 21–23 May 2026 | Netanyahu coalition under severe pressure — ultra-Orthodox draft dispute deepening; early elections increasingly discussed. G7 finance ministers: regional recovery requires "a lasting end to conflict." Conflict in its 12th+ week with no ceasefire timeline. Continued pressure on regional shipping and energy sentiment. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
PwC is training 30,000 professionals on Claude — and that changes what your consultants bring into the room. On 14 May, PwC and Anthropic expanded their global alliance: PwC will certify 30,000 US professionals on Claude Code and Cowork, then roll it out to its 364,000-person global workforce across 136 countries. A joint Center of Excellence has been established. Early results from PwC engagements show delivery timelines cut by up to 70% — insurance underwriting that previously took ten weeks is now completed in ten days. This follows KPMG's similar Claude integration (276,000 staff, 138 countries, announced 19 May). The practical implication for Dhaka professionals: when a Big Four team sits across your table for an audit, advisory, or due diligence engagement, AI agents are now co-reviewing your documents. Reports with inconsistent formatting, ambiguous labels, or mixed number formats will create friction in both AI and human workflows simultaneously. Clean, structured data is no longer just best practice — it is a prerequisite for being taken seriously in a Big Four-engaged deal process.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh Bank announced Tk 60,000 crore yesterday to reopen closed factories. The ADP is Tk 6,908 crore short of last year after ten months of the fiscal year. Both things are happening at the same time. One is a central bank trying to push capital into the economy. The other is the government unable to spend the capital it already planned to spend. I keep thinking: the bottleneck is not money. It is execution. We have capital sitting in refinancing windows. We have ADP allocations sitting unspent in planning ministry accounts. The factories that closed did not close because there was no money to lend. Most closed because of law and order, political uncertainty, or buyer confidence problems. I am genuinely unsure whether Tk 60,000 crore solves any of those three things. This Sunday morning, that is the question I would put to every banker and industrialist who will read this digest before the DSE opens.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka