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New IMF Deal ($6-6.5bn) Likely by December · Bangladesh Loses EU Apparel Share · Banks Propose 14 New Fees — ORAWEK Morning Brief, July 19
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ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 19 JULY 2026
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Top Story
New IMF Deal Likely by December · EU Apparel Share Loss Deepens · Banks Propose 14 New Fees
Bangladesh, IMF move toward $6-6.5bn deal; formal approval expected December, first tranche by February 2027
Following last week's five-day IMF mission, Bangladesh and the Fund are converging on a new loan facility worth $6-6.5bn, with the Executive Board's formal approval targeted for December and the first tranche release projected for February 2027, contingent on progress in structural reforms. Virtual technical talks run through August-September, high-level discussions happen on the sidelines of October's IMF-World Bank meetings, and a policy mission returns to Dhaka in November to lock in commitments. The five conditionality pillars: aggressive revenue mobilisation, a banking-sector NPL overhaul, inflation control, disciplined crawling-peg FX management, and more efficient public spending — alongside a mandate to protect social safety nets during the adjustment. The Fund's own FY27 growth call of 3.5% (against the government's 6.5% budget target) hangs over the negotiation.
Why Bangladesh is losing EU garment market share faster than every rival — buyers already repositioning ahead of LDC graduation
Eurostat data show Bangladesh's EU apparel exports fell 18.9% in January-May against a ~10% EU-wide import decline, with China (-4.2%), Vietnam (-1.51%), India (-13.33%) and Türkiye (-15.66%) all losing far less ground. BKMEA president Mohammad Hatem said buyers are "gradually building sourcing capacity in India" ahead of Bangladesh's loss of preferential access post-graduation. DBL Group's MA Jabbar pointed to Bangladesh's continued cotton dependence versus Vietnam's man-made-fibre strength, while Sparrow Group's Shovon Islam called it a clear market-share loss rather than a demand slump, urging urgent trade-agreement work and EU due-diligence readiness.
Benapole exports to India nearly halve in FY26 as reciprocal trade curbs bite; C&F agents, port workers under pressure
Exports through Bangladesh's largest land port fell to 189,358 tonnes in FY26 from 381,440 tonnes the year before — down from 456,672 tonnes in FY24 — as India's restrictions on jute, textiles, yarn and other categories since 2025 continue to bite. Daily export trucks have fallen below 100 versus a normal 250-300. Stakeholders are urging diplomatic action to lift the curbs and faster use of the Bangladesh-India-Nepal-Bhutan transit route to diversify away from a shrinking bilateral channel.
Banks propose new fees on 14 services — frequent withdrawals, dormant-account revival, LC fees — as customers and DCCI push back
The Association of Bankers, Bangladesh has asked Bangladesh Bank to approve charges on services long free, including a Tk100-300 fee on cash withdrawals beyond three a month, Tk500 to reactivate dormant accounts, and new fees across LC, guarantee and loan-processing services, citing six-to-seven years of unrecovered inflation and taka depreciation from Tk87 to about Tk123/USD. DCCI president Taskeen Ahmed called the timing "highly unreasonable" given already-high lending rates, while the Chittagong Chamber has formally asked BB to reject the proposal outright.
Govt halves its own vehicle-maintenance allowance and reviews study-leave perks — austerity push widens beyond banking reform
The Finance Division has asked Public Administration to cut civil servants' monthly vehicle-maintenance stipend from Tk50,000 to Tk25,000 and reclassify officials on foreign scholarships from full-pay "deputation" to standard education leave, ending the practice of drawing full government salary alongside external stipends — part of a wider FY27 austerity push that already froze new government-vehicle purchases and cut post-budget ceremonial spending. CPD's Mustafizur Rahman welcomed the signal but said real fiscal sustainability needs deeper procurement and tax-base reform.
Mixed signals in the economic zones: Beza's flagship Mirsarai water plan stalls on a stuck Tk10,553cr pipeline, even as a Chinese textile firm signs a fresh $30m lease
Beza's National Special Economic Zone in Mirsarai faces a water-supply crunch after its South Korean private partner backtracked on a Tk10,553cr, 150km Meghna pipeline over an unresolved tariff dispute — the proposed rate of Tk120/1,000 litres is nearly four times the current Tk32 rate. Demand is set to outstrip 1 billion litres/day by 2040 against a current 3 million litres from groundwater. Separately, China's Huarun Tex signed a land lease for a $30m textile plant in the nearby Bepza zone, expected to employ 580 people and produce 24,000 tonnes of yarn annually — a reminder that new capital keeps arriving even as infrastructure lags. Bangladesh Bank also issued operating guidelines this week for the country's first Free Trade Zone in Anwara, Chattogram, letting FTZ businesses import on consignment without opening LCs.

📌 Three stories, one reform clock — The IMF's December-to-February 2027 timeline gives Dhaka a real deadline: revenue mobilisation and bank clean-up have to show progress well before board approval. This week's austerity moves (halved vehicle allowances, frozen procurement) and the new FTZ rules read as early instalments on that reform bill — small, but directionally the kind of thing the Fund wants to see.

📌 Competitiveness is leaking out through two channels at once — The EU apparel share loss and the Benapole trade-curb collapse are different stories with the same effect: export volume moving elsewhere while Bangladesh negotiates. Meanwhile a $30m Chinese textile investment and a new FTZ show capital hasn't stopped arriving — but it's arriving despite the friction, not because of it.

Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 19 July 2026, 8 AM
USD / BDT — Interbank Rate
123.37
High/Low/WAR: 123.5500/123.0000/123.37 · Spot (till 5pm): 123.55 · Last set 16 Jul, unchanged over Fri-Sat weekend
YUAN / BDT
18.17-18.25
Bid: 18.17 · Bid: 18.25 · Last set 16 Jul 2026
DSEX — Last Close 16 Jul
5,900.00 pts
▼ -25.91 pts (-0.437%) · DSE reopens today for the trading week
Gold 22K / Bhori
219,808
Unchanged since 17 Jul · BAJUS rate, 8 AM
Inflation (Jun '26, Point-to-Point)
9.16%
▼ Down from 9.42% in May · No July print out yet
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Held · SLF 11.5% · SDF 7.5%
New IMF Facility (Under Negotiation)
$6-6.5 bn
Board approval eyed December · First tranche ~Feb 2027
Classified (Bad) Loans
32.26 % of total
▲ World's 2nd-highest after Ukraine · Tk5.89 lakh cr, end-March
Gross Forex Reserves (June, Monthly)
$37.58 bn
BPM6 basis: $32.93bn · June 2025-26
Remittances (FY26)
$35.6 bn
▲ Up from $30.3bn in FY25, per Fitch
RMG Exports to EU (Jan-May, YoY)
-18.89 %
▼ EU share down to 21.5% from 23.9% · Faster than all major rivals
Benapole Land-Port Exports (FY26)
189,358 tonnes
▼ Down from 381,440t in FY25 · Nearly halved on India trade curbs
Bank Fee Proposal: ABB seeks BB approval for new charges on 14 services, incl. withdrawal fees and dormant-account revival · DCCI, CCCI oppose  [Daily Star]  
·  Govt Austerity: Vehicle-maintenance allowance halved to Tk25,000/month · Study-leave rules tightened for scholarship officials  [Dhaka Tribune]  
·  Free Trade Zone: BB guidelines let Anwara FTZ businesses import on consignment without opening LCs · Storage up to 60 months  [Dhaka Tribune]  
·  Flood Watch: Death toll from ongoing floods rises to 59 nationally; Cox's Bazar worst hit  [Dhaka Tribune]
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Sunday Morning, 19 July 2026
First US Combat Deaths of the War: 2 Troops Killed, 1 Missing After Iran Strikes Jordan Base; Khamenei Warns of "Unforgettable Lessons" TBS / AP · 19 Jul 2026 CENTCOM confirmed two US service members were killed and one is missing after Iranian ballistic-missile and drone attacks on a Jordan base Friday — the first direct-fire US combat deaths since the war's opening days, bringing the total to 16 killed, 430+ wounded. Hours earlier, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called Trump's signature "worthless and invalid" and Tehran said it is suspending commitments under last month's interim deal. US strikes hit Iranian bridges, a power/desalination plant and infrastructure near Bandar Abbas for a seventh straight night; Iran struck a desalination plant and oil facility in Kuwait for the second day running. BD implication: an already-fragile de-escalation path has effectively collapsed, keeping shipping, insurance and fuel costs on an upward track into the new week.
Oil Up More Than 14% on the Week: Brent Near $88, Crude Near $82 as Hormuz Blockade Holds Trading Economics · 17 Jul 2026 Brent settled near $88.09/bbl (+4.58% on the day) and crude near $81.78-82.47/bbl Friday, both at one-month highs, as the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and commercial traffic through Hormuz stayed thin. Oil is up more than 14% this week. BD implication: a costlier landed fuel bill compounds an import book already strained by taka depreciation, just as the IMF negotiation gets underway.
Russia-Ukraine Trade Fresh Strikes: Kyiv Hits Moscow-Region Oil Depot and Warehouses; Seven Killed Bloomberg · 18 Jul 2026 Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in the Moscow region and two Wildberries logistics warehouses early Saturday, killing seven workers in the Tambov region, while Russia struck Ukrainian ports in return. Ukraine's Defence Ministry says its drones now hit roughly 90% of Russian targets. BD implication: a second active war keeps energy-market volatility layered on top of the Middle East risk premium, with no ceasefire in sight.
Lebanon's President Heads to Washington for First Such Visit Since 2009, as Israel Strikes Continue Near "Security Zone" Dhaka Tribune / AFP · 18 Jul 2026 President Joseph Aoun left Beirut for Washington to meet Trump on ceasefire enforcement and Israeli withdrawal, after Rome talks fixed the "structure and guidelines" for two pilot withdrawal zones. Lebanon's army has begun intensifying patrols near the zones; Israel struck two towns near Tyre and Nabatieh on Saturday despite the truce. Hezbollah continues to reject the framework outright. BD implication: limited direct trade exposure, but another marker of how fragile the region's multiple ceasefires remain.
Gaza: Strikes Continue Despite Ceasefire as Burnham Set to Become UK PM Monday Amid Mass Pro-Gaza Rallies Al Jazeera · 18 Jul 2026 Israeli strikes killed Palestinian militants in Gaza City and central Gaza on Friday as the death toll since October 2023 passed 73,000. Thousands rallied in London on Saturday demanding incoming PM Andy Burnham impose an arms embargo on Israel; Belgium separately banned imports from Israeli settlements. BD implication: limited direct trade exposure, but a continued marker of Western political realignment on the conflict.
Wall St — Last Close Fri 17 Jul CNBC / Yahoo Finance · 17 Jul 2026 Dow ▼ -0.77% (-406.55) to 52,146.42 · S&P 500 ▼ -1.01% (-76.08) to 7,457.69 · Nasdaq ▼ -1.40% (-361.70) to 25,520.24 — a chip-stock sell-off deepened after China's Moonshot AI released its Kimi K3 model, seen as competitive with frontier US systems, while Iran-war jitters added to the risk-off mood. BD implication: a softer global risk appetite heading into the week is a mild caution flag for export and outsourcing sentiment.
US Fed — Rate Held at 3.5%-3.75%; Next FOMC 28-29 July Federal Reserve · Jun 2026 minutes Rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% since June under Chair Kevin Warsh; markets widely expect another hold at the 28-29 July meeting, though Iran-driven inflation risk keeps a small chance of a hike alive. BD implication: an uncertain US rate path keeps dollar funding costs elevated for Bangladeshi borrowers just as the IMF talks intensify.
Bitcoin — Latest Yahoo Finance · 19 Jul 2026 Trading around $64,200, holding in the $60,000-$64,000 range it has occupied for much of the month after a sharp pullback from 2025's highs, broadly steady even as wider equity markets stayed risk-off.
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
A free, open-weight Chinese model just matched frontier AI performance — worth a second look before your team commits to a paid-only stack. Moonshot AI's new Kimi K3, released alongside a major AI speech from Chinese President Xi Jinping at Shanghai's World AI Conference, is being assessed by independent evaluators as competitive with leading proprietary systems, even as Moonshot itself says it still trails the top closed models. The launch was significant enough to weigh on Nasdaq chip stocks on Friday. The practical read for Dhaka: open-weight models that are genuinely close to frontier quality change the cost math for teams doing document processing, drafting or coding support — it's worth testing K3 or similar open models against whatever you're currently paying for before renewing licences, while keeping in mind that open Chinese models raise their own data-handling and governance questions worth thinking through for sensitive business data.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
Good morning, Dhaka. Notice how today's front page has a deadline in it for the first time in a while — December for board approval, February for the first tranche. That specificity changes the conversation: reform stops being a vague aspiration and starts being something with a calendar attached. What strikes me most is that the smallest item today, a Tk25,000 cut to a car allowance, is actually the most legible signal of intent — it's the kind of unglamorous move that either continues into the harder reforms or quietly stops. I'll be watching which one it is. See you tomorrow.
— Refat · Sunday morning · Dhaka
today's morning brief is ready || click me now ||
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