ORAWEK
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TUESDAY, 26 MAY 2026 · WEEKDAY EDITION
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Top Story
ADB $5B Package · IMF Exit · FY27 Budget — 23 Days Away
ADB pledges $5 billion over five years — President Kanda calls Bangladesh "regional hub in the making"
ADB President Masato Kanda met PM Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Monday 25 May and formally announced a $5 billion, five-year financing package under the Integrated Growth Network Development Initiative. Annual sovereign lending rises 20% to ~$2.4 billion. The already-signed $1.4 billion (four projects) sits inside this envelope, not on top of it. ADB also increased budget support by $250 million to a total of $1 billion this year to cushion the Middle East shock on fuel, LNG, fertiliser, and shipping costs. Kanda confirmed $2 million in technical assistance for Bangladesh's medium-term reform framework. Private capital mobilisation — capital market strengthening, bankable project preparation, co-financing — was identified as the critical missing link.
Bangladesh officially exits AL-era $5.5B IMF deal — seeks fresh $5–6B programme under new terms
In a confirmed policy shift, Bangladesh has formally decided to exit the existing $5.5 billion IMF programme signed under the Awami League government in 2023. The decision was conveyed during a 21 May virtual meeting between Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury and IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke, and officially announced via Ministry of Finance press release on 25 May. Bangladesh has received $3.8 billion across five tranches; remaining undisbursed funds will be returned. The government is now negotiating a fresh $5–6 billion programme over 3–4 years with a revised conditionality structure. An IMF mission is expected in July–August to finalise terms. The Finance Ministry said both sides agree on a "realistic, implementation-focused" package. The IMF has withheld the sixth tranche since November, citing stalled reforms on revenue, banking, subsidies, and exchange rate.
FY27 budget 23 days away — new retailer taxes threaten Tk 6,000 crore collection target and consumer price hike
With budget day fixed for 18 June 2026, NBR's plan to impose new taxes on retailers — targeting a Tk 6,000 crore collection — is drawing criticism that the burden will pass directly to consumers via price increases. The Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies (BAPLC) and Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) have both warned the private sector's current priority is survival, not growth. Government bank borrowing has already crossed its annual target in nine months, crowding out private credit at a time when lending rates sit at 15–16%. The CPD estimates the FY27 revenue target requires ~42% growth from current collection — a figure widely seen as structurally impossible without significant structural reforms.
📌 ADB Signal — The $5B headline is a five-year envelope, not a cheque. The immediate lever is the $1B in budget support this year — that goes to reserves arithmetic directly. The PM–ADB meeting also anchored a reform framework discussion. Finance teams should note: ADB's credibility signal here partially offsets the IMF exit optics for external partners.
📌 IMF Exit — This is the bigger story. Exiting a live programme is unusual and signals the BNP government will not accept the original conditionalities. A July–August IMF mission means no new programme money before Q1 FY27 at earliest. In the gap: the ADB $1B budget support and remittance surge are the only cushions. Scenario-plan a 6–9 month window with tighter external financing.
Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 26 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
~122.76–122.90 ৳
BB interbank mid-market · Week of 18–25 May range: 122.75–122.90 · Taka broadly stable; 30-day band tight · 6-month average: 122.47
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.99–18.06 ৳
Cross-rate via USD/CNY · Stable for BD–China importers · CNY appreciated ~8% vs BDT over 12 months · China remains BD's #1 trading partner (21.21%)
DSEX — Last Close (Sun 24 May)
5,335.87 pts
▲ +7.51 (+0.14%) — Sun 24 May close · Up from Thu 21 May's 5,264.12 · Today Tuesday 26 May first session of new week (Sun 25 May was holiday)
Gold 22K / Bhori (BAJUS)
2,38,121 ৳
▼ Down from Tk 2,44,711 (effective 7 May) · BAJUS rate effective 16 May 2026 · Easing on Iran deal hopes pulling down international gold spot · Intl spot ~$3,200/oz
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% in Mar '26 · Food inflation easing to 8.24% · Brent below $100 today eases May upside risk · ADB FY26 forecast: 9.0%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Bank lending 15–16% · Tk 60,000cr stimulus at subsidised 7% (targeted relief) · IMF exit removes pressure for immediate subsidy/rate reform
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Partly rescheduling rule changes · Sector CRAR: −2.9% · BB restricts dividends for banks below Tk 2,000cr paid capital · IMF exit may ease reform pace on banking
GDP Growth FY26 (Forecasts)
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49% · LDC graduation Nov 2026 · IMF exit adds uncertainty to FY27 projections
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Tuesday Morning, 26 May
| Brent Crude — 26 May TradingEconomics · 26 May 2026 | ~$97.74/bbl ▲ +0.50% · Down sharply from ~$103+ last week. A US–Iran 60-day ceasefire MOU framework is reportedly on the table — if signed, the Strait of Hormuz would be de-mined and reopened within 30 days. Iran is still reviewing. Brent fell ~6% on Monday as the deal approached. BD implication: every $1 drop in Brent saves Biman and BPC crores monthly. |
| WTI Crude — 26 May TradingEconomics · 26 May 2026 | ~$91.39/bbl ▲ +0.45% · Also recovering from Monday's ~6% plunge. Today's range: $90.34–$93.54. Key unresolved issue: Iran demands authority over maritime traffic tolls — Washington has rejected that. Pakistan and Qatar mediating. No signed deal yet. |
| Wall St — Last Close Fri 22 May TradingEconomics · 22 May 2026 | Dow ▲ +294 pts (+0.58%) to 50,579.70 — record close · S&P 500 ▲ +0.37% to 7,473.47 · Nasdaq ▲ +0.19% to 26,343.97 · US markets reopened today Tuesday 26 May after Memorial Day (25 May) · S&P up 8 consecutive weeks — longest winning streak since Dec 2023. Futures were positive pre-open on Iran deal progress. PCE inflation data due this week. |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve · May 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC · Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed Chair on Fri 22 May — replacing Jerome Powell · Warsh arrives as 30-year bond yield hit near 19-year high this week · CME FedWatch pricing hike, not cut, for late 2026 if Iran inflation persists. First Warsh policy decision to set the tone. |
| Bitcoin — 25–26 May Yahoo Finance / CME · 25 May 2026 | ~$76,823 · Consolidating down from ATH ~$126,000 (Oct 2025) · Down 0.31% overnight · Gold spot at ~$4,551/oz · Fear & Greed Index: Fear zone · Iran deal hopes cut safe-haven premium from both gold and BTC near-term |
| Hormuz / Iran Deal Status WashPost / CNN / Reuters · 24–25 May 2026 | A 60-day ceasefire MOU framework has been developed — Hormuz would be de-mined and reopened within 30 days of signing. Iran is reviewing; no signature yet. Secretary Rubio on Monday said negotiations are "still a work in progress" with "a pretty solid thing on the table." Netanyahu called Trump to express Israeli concern over nuclear provisions. Full Hormuz reopening timeline: earliest late June if signed this week. |
| US–China & BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka / CNBC · May 2026 | US–China tariffs remain ~45% · BD–US: 19% base tariff in effect under Section 122 · BD is 2nd-largest US apparel supplier · Vietnam and Cambodia continue absorbing more China-diversion share. No BD-specific tariff breakthrough expected before FY27 budget. |
| India–Bangladesh Trade Dhaka Tribune · 22 May 2026 | India overtook the US as BD's 2nd-largest trading partner (8.47% vs 8.46% of total trade through Feb 2026). India exporting diesel via pipeline amid BD LNG shortage. EAM Jaishankar continuing engagement with the Tarique Rahman government. China remains #1 at 21.21%. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
Google launched Gemini Spark at I/O 2026 — an AI agent that can take actions across your apps. Here is what matters for Dhaka professionals right now. At Google I/O on 19 May, Google announced Gemini 3.5 Flash and Gemini Spark, a new general-purpose AI agent that works across Gmail, Calendar, Drive, and Docs — able to "take action on your behalf while under your direction." Spark is in beta, available first to Google AI Ultra subscribers. The practical significance: an AI agent that can draft and send emails, schedule meetings, summarise documents, and prepare reports without switching tabs is a genuine workflow shift, not just a chat upgrade. For Bangladeshi professionals managing a heavy pre-budget email and document load — ERD disbursement data, BB circulars, ADB project docs, NBR VAT notices — a tool that can cross-reference your Drive, surface relevant documents, and draft structured responses reduces real work time. The caveat: Spark is US-first rollout, and full Google Workspace integration for Bangladesh may lag 1–2 months. Watch for it in your Gemini app. The model race this month: Google Gemini 3.5, OpenAI GPT-5.5, and Anthropic Claude are all shipping updates at unprecedented speed.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Yesterday Bangladesh exited a $5.5 billion IMF deal and announced a $5 billion ADB package on the same day. The optics are clean. The math is messier. The ADB money is a five-year envelope — roughly $1 billion a year, much of it already counted in existing commitments. The IMF exit means no fresh programme money before late FY27 at the earliest. In that gap, the only real buffers are the $1 billion in ADB budget support already signed and the remittance surge running at 38% above last year. Both are real. Neither is structural. The budget on 18 June will tell us whether the government understands the difference between a signing ceremony and solvency.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka