ORAWEK
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SATURDAY, 23 MAY 2026 · WEEKEND EDITION
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Bangladesh Budget & Governance — 19 Days to June 11
Finance minister bans political appointments in financial sector — “strictly professional people only,” including BSEC
Speaking at a policy symposium titled “Post-Uprising Economy & Geopolitics of Budget” in Dhaka on 22 May, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury announced a blanket ban on political appointments across the entire financial sector — including the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC). “We are going to appoint strictly professional people. There will be absolutely no political appointments in the financial sector, including the BSEC,” Khosru said. The statement arrives 19 days before the June 11 budget and signals a governance shift that markets have demanded for years. The BSEC has long been criticised for regulatory capture; investor confidence remains depressed despite recent enforcement actions against listed companies for false financial reporting.
FY27 budget may revive money laundering amnesty — funds returned to industry & renewables get legal cover, but experts are divided
The government is planning to reintroduce an amnesty for repatriated laundered funds in the upcoming FY27 budget, allowing money sent abroad illegally to return without questioning its source, according to NBR officials. Under the scheme, funds reinvested in productive industries and renewable energy would receive legal protection on their origin. A slightly higher tax rate than the regular rate would apply. An estimated Tk 28 lakh crore was allegedly syphoned overseas during the 15-year Awami League era. Proponents say it could boost investment and jobs; critics — including CPD economists — argue such amnesties historically yield little, reward wrongdoing, and undermine legitimate investors. Bangladesh had previously tried offshore amnesties in prior budgets with limited results.
India overtakes US as Bangladesh’s 2nd-largest trading partner — China still dominates at 21% of total trade
According to the latest Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics trade data (through February 2026), India has narrowly surpassed the United States in Bangladesh’s overall trade rankings. India accounted for 8.47% of Bangladesh’s total external trade (roughly Tk 123.28 billion), while the US followed at 8.46% (Tk 123.17 billion). The margin is razor-thin but symbolically significant. China remains dominant at 21.21%, driven by Bangladesh’s deep dependence on Chinese industrial imports. The shift reflects growing bilateral trade under PM Tarique Rahman’s BNP government and India’s rising exports to Bangladesh — up over 64% year-on-year in April 2026 alone. India’s foreign minister Jaishankar has reiterated India’s desire to engage constructively with the new Dhaka government.
📌 Governance Signal — Khosru’s appointment ban is easy to say in a speech. The test is June 11: if the first BSEC chair named after this statement has a party card, the signal becomes noise. Dhaka’s professional community should track this closely.
📌 Amnesty Signal — Past amnesties in Bangladesh raised almost nothing. The real variable is whether returned funds can credibly clear AML/CFT due diligence at receiving banks. Without that mechanism, the money simply doesn’t come back — whatever rate is offered.
Economy Watch
H2 Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 23 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
~122.75–122.90 ৳
BB interbank · Stable band · 6-month range: 121.58–123.87 · BB continuing dollar purchases to cap taka appreciation
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.99–18.06 ৳
Mid-market · Stable for BD–China importers this week · Cross-rate via USD/CNY
DSEX Close — May 21
5,264.12 pts
▲ +41.74 (+0.80%) · Strong close Thu · DSE closed Fri 22 May · Next session: Sunday 24 May
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,38,121 ৳
▼ BAJUS rate eff. 16 May · Down Tk 4,374 from prior rate · International gold ~$3,250/oz; Iran deal hopes keep safe-haven demand subdued
Inflation Rate (Apr ’26)
9.04%
▲ Up from 8.91% (Mar) · Food inflation: 8.24% · Brent above $100 will pressure May print further · ADB FY26 forecast: 9.0%
Policy Rate (BB)
10.0%
BB repo rate · Unchanged · Bank lending rates running 15–16% · Next MPC review pending · Business lobby seeking relief
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec ’25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep ’25) · Partly reflects relaxed rescheduling rules · Sector CRAR: −2.9% (negative)
GDP Growth FY26
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Saturday Morning
| Brent Crude — Fri 22 May close OilPrice.com / TradingEconomics · 22 May 2026 | ~$103.94–105/bbl ▲ +1.33–2.31% · Climbed Friday after Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered enriched uranium to stay inside Iran — complicating US deal talks. Still down more than 6% week-on-week as markets price in eventual agreement. BD implication: Brent above $100 sustains LNG import cost pressure and Biman fuel cost headwinds through June. |
| WTI Crude — Fri 22 May close OilPrice.com · 22 May 2026 | ~$96–101/bbl · Rose above $98 Friday on Hormuz/Iran supply fears · US Sec State Rubio cited “slight progress” in Iran talks; Pakistani mediators set to travel to Tehran. No deal timeline. Week range: $87–$110+. |
| Wall St — Friday 22 May close TheStreet / TradingEconomics · 22 May 2026 | Dow ▲ +294 pts (+0.58%) to 50,579.70 — new record close · S&P 500 ▲ +0.37% to 7,473.47 · Nasdaq ▲ +0.19% to 26,343.97 · All sectors green except Communications · Health Care & Tech led gains · US markets closed Monday 25 May (Memorial Day); next session Tuesday 26 May. |
| US Fed Rate Fed / TradingEconomics · May 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC · FOMC minutes (released Wed 20 May) showed most officials see hikes as necessary if Iran war keeps inflation elevated · CME FedWatch pricing hike (not cut) for late 2026 / early 2027 · Kevin Warsh now chairs after Powell’s departure. |
| Bitcoin — 22–23 May Fortune / Yahoo Finance · 22 May 2026 | ~$76,860–77,500 · Stable range through weekend · Down sharply from Oct 2025 ATH of ~$126,000 · Macro headwinds (Iran, high Treasury yields) weighing · “CLARITY Act” passage improved long-term regulatory sentiment but near-term pressure persists. |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran War Reuters / Al Jazeera · 22 May 2026 | Iran announced intent to formalise a maritime “toll system” with Oman for Hormuz traffic; President Trump rejected it, insisting the strait must remain free. Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered enriched uranium to stay in-country — a major sticking point in nuclear talks. Pakistani mediators expected in Tehran. No ceasefire. Full Hormuz reopening still months away at minimum. |
| US–China Tariff / BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka / CNBC · May 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% · BD–US: 19% base tariff still in effect · Section 122 appeal live · BD now confirmed 2nd-largest US apparel supplier but capturing minimal China-diversion share; Vietnam & Cambodia gaining · No breakthrough this week. |
| India–Bangladesh Trade Dhaka Tribune / BBS · 22 May 2026 | India officially overtook the US as BD’s 2nd-largest trade partner (8.47% vs 8.46% of total trade through Feb 2026). India exporting diesel via pipeline amid BD LNG shortage; bilateral trade talks ongoing. China remains #1 at 21.21%. EAM Jaishankar reiterates engagement with Tarique Rahman government. |
| Israel–Lebanon / Middle East Reuters · 21–22 May 2026 | Netanyahu coalition under severe pressure — ultra-Orthodox draft dispute deepening; early elections increasingly discussed. G7 finance ministers: regional recovery requires “a lasting end to conflict.” Conflict in its 12th+ week with no ceasefire timeline. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
KPMG just gave its 276,000 employees access to Claude AI — and that is directly relevant to every Bangladeshi firm that works with a Big Four auditor or consultant. On 19 May, KPMG and Anthropic announced a global alliance embedding Claude into KPMG’s Digital Gateway platform across 138 countries. The initial focus is Tax & Legal and Private Equity. The practical implication: when a KPMG Bangladesh team sits across from your finance team for an audit or advisory engagement, they are now working with AI-assisted analysis and document drafting. This is already live. PwC made a similar move on 14 May. Deloitte has had AI integrations running for over a year. The concrete takeaway for Dhaka professionals: if you produce reports, memos, or financial summaries that go into these firms’ workflows, the quality bar for structured data and clear writing just went up — because AI is screening it first. A table with inconsistent formatting or ambiguous labels will now confuse both a human reviewer and an AI system simultaneously.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Two things happened on Thursday that deserve to be read together. The finance minister said there will be no political appointments in the financial sector. And the same government is planning an amnesty for Tk 28 lakh crore in laundered money. One statement says we will change how power moves through our institutions. The other says we will welcome back the people who broke them. I am not saying the second decision is wrong — I genuinely do not know if it will work. But I do think the two cannot coexist as a coherent signal to investors. A professional community watching from London or Singapore sees both, at the same time, and has to decide which one to believe. This Saturday morning, I find myself wondering: which one does Dhaka believe?
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka