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Foreign investors quietly return to Dhaka stocks
Foreign investors bought around Tk250 crore in shares against Tk180 crore in sales in the first 24 days of September, DSE data show — the first sustained net-buying stretch in years. MSCI will resume regular index reviews for Bangladesh from November, ending a "special treatment" designation dating to the 2023 floor-price disruptions, while Bangladesh Bank has eased capital-repatriation and audit rules for non-resident investors.
Source: The Business StandardUN to weigh Bangladesh's LDC graduation deferral on 7 October
The UN General Assembly's Second Committee will discuss Bangladesh's request for a three-year deferral of its LDC graduation, currently set for 24 November. The UN Committee for Development Policy has confirmed Bangladesh meets all three graduation criteria, but the final call — and any grace period — rests with a General Assembly vote expected before the November deadline.
Source: The Business StandardInvestment warning: capital-machinery imports down 45% in four years
Imports of capital machinery, medical equipment and heavy machinery fell 45.1% between FY22 and FY25, economist Selim Raihan writes, citing political instability, high borrowing costs and unreliable energy supply. The warning lands the same week foreign tourist arrivals extended a second straight year of decline — down roughly 20% year-on-year in H1 2026 — underscoring a broader confidence gap even as portfolio flows tick up.
Source: TBS Thoughts / The Daily StarWhy it matters for Dhaka: Read together, this is a split picture rather than a clean turnaround: reforms and MSCI's return are pulling portfolio money back in, but real investment and tourism — the harder, stickier flows — are still shrinking. A Tk20/litre fuel-price hike this week (the third under this government) is also set to interrupt the disinflation trend just as Bangladesh Bank held its policy rate steady, so businesses budgeting on "inflation easing" should build in a near-term reversal.
| Brent Crudeoilprice.com, live | $104.30/bbl, down 2.14% today but still elevated on the Hormuz standoff; WTI at $92.82 (−1.89%). |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iranoilprice.com, CBS News | Tanker transits through Hormuz have crashed to single digits this week as the seven-month US-Iran war grinds on; Washington and Tehran are now reviving a June framework that would trade a phased reopening of the strait for sanctions relief. Bangladesh imports ~85% of its crude, so any easing would be the single biggest relief valve for local fuel prices. |
| Russia-Ukraine WarCBS News | Russia's FM Lavrov accused Europe of blocking US-backed peace talks at the UN General Assembly; Trump urged Zelenskyy to "settle" with Putin. Both sides escalated strikes this week in what officials call the deadliest summer since 2022. |
| Israel-Lebanon / GazaAl Jazeera | Hamas condemned the US-created Board of Peace for excluding UNRWA from Gaza operations; Israeli strikes killed seven Palestinians in Gaza over 48 hours and forces raided Birzeit University in the West Bank during exams. |
| US Fed RateFederal Reserve | The Fed raised its target range 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September — its first hike since 2023 — in a unanimous 12-0 vote under Chair Kevin Warsh, citing elevated inflation. |
| Wall Street CloseGoogle Finance, 25 Sept | Dow 51,828.62 (+0.93%); S&P 500 7,743.41 (+0.51%); Nasdaq 27,068.72 (+0.48%) — all higher into the weekend. |
| BitcoinYahoo Finance | $84,360, down 1.79% on the day and down about 25% over the past year. |
The story: Fresh workplace research this week (via TechCrunch and Business Insider) converges on the same point: as generative AI absorbs routine research, drafting and reporting, the skills gaining value are the ones AI still struggles with — framing the right question, judging which AI output to trust, and reading a room. On-device AI is also maturing fast enough to challenge cloud-only assistants for latency-sensitive, always-on tasks.
For Dhaka teams: If your team already uses AI for first-draft reports or customer replies, the next hire or promotion criterion worth testing for isn't "can they use ChatGPT" — it's whether they can spot a wrong AI answer and know what question should have been asked in the first place.
There's a strange split-screen quality to this morning's economy: foreign investors are quietly buying Dhaka stocks again, and reserves keep climbing — yet the same week brought a Tk20 fuel-price hike and a UN committee deciding our LDC timeline. Recovery here rarely arrives as one clean signal. It comes in pieces, and reading them together is the job.
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| Brent Crude | $112–115 ▲ +55% Mar |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 ▲ +53% Mar |
| USD / BDT | 122.70 ▲ Taka weak |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% — held |
| BD Jet Fuel | Tk 202/L ▲ +80% Mar |
| US–China Tariff | 33.9% ETR ▲ probe on BD |
| RMG Export YTD | $10.69B ▲ Jan '26 |
Morning Brief March 31, 2026
TOP STORY
Bangladesh Business & Economy
US Trade Deal at Legal Risk — One Year After “Liberation Day” Tariffs
- Today marks one year since Trump’s April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs hit Bangladesh at a punishing 37% — since negotiated down to 19%, with garments using US cotton eligible for zero duty under the February 2026 bilateral deal.
Banking Sector NPLs Remain the Economy’s Biggest Internal Threat
- Non-performing loans stood at a staggering 35.73% of all disbursed loans as of September 2025 — far above South Asia’s 7.9% average — strangling credit access for businesses and suppressing private investment to a 5-year low of 22.48% of GDP.
Remittances Surging — The Economy’s Strongest Lifeline Right Now
- Remittances jumped from $21 billion in 2023 to $30 billion in 2025
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
- Key numbers- USD/BDT at 123.00, DSEX closed at ~5,231 (prev. close, 31 mar), inflation at 9.13% (10-month high), policy rate held at 10%.
- Gross Forex Reserves $34.2B IMF BPM6: $29.5B · 16 Mar), Gold (22-carat/bhori)- ৳2,44,711 (+৳3,266 · BAJUS 31 Mar).
Global Signal
What Happened Overnight That Affects Bangladesh
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Anthropic accidentally leaked details of a new AI model that poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks. (Fortune)
ORAWKE Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
Inflation rate is at an all-time high, AI is at it’s pick performance, ready to take over jobs, and also trying to lead humans. What kind of decision do you make for your future?
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