By ORAWEK | ভোরের সংক্ষেপ — The Morning Brief for Dhaka’s Professionals

Published: Wednesday, 01 July 2026 | Business · Economy · AI | 8:00 AM Dhaka

This is the long-form version of our morning brief. For the shorter version, please visit:  Today’s Morning Brief

Bangladesh business news, economic policy analysis, and market data for July 1, 2026 — covering the FY2026-27 national budget, Bangladesh Bank’s monetary policy statement, banking sector reforms, DSEX stock market performance, currency and commodity rates, and global developments affecting Dhaka’s business community.

Bangladesh entered its new fiscal year today carrying one of the busiest 48-hour policy stretches in recent memory. Parliament’s Tk9.38 lakh crore FY27 budget took legal effect at midnight, Bangladesh Bank issued a sweeping new circular allowing banks to waive roughly Tk1 lakh crore in interest on default loans, a fresh monetary policy statement reset lending targets for the next six months, and the Dhaka Stock Exchange closed out FY26 with its strongest annual rally in years. Layered on top of that is a fragile Iran-US negotiation track in Doha and an oil market swinging on the outcome, both of which matter directly to Bangladesh’s import bill and inflation trajectory.

Below is a full breakdown of what happened, why it matters for businesses and professionals in Dhaka, and where to read the original reporting on each story.

1. Bangladesh Bank Allows Banks to Waive Tk1 Lakh Crore in Default Loan Interest

In a circular issued this week, Bangladesh Bank has permitted commercial banks to waive both charged and uncharged interest owed by loan defaulters, relaxing an earlier rule that required banks to recover the underlying cost of funds before granting any waiver. As of December 2025, roughly Tk1 lakh crore in uncharged interest was sitting in banks’ interest-suspense accounts against non-performing loans. If banks act on the new provision at scale, the industry’s headline non-performing loan (NPL) ratio — currently 30.6%, among the highest in South Asia — could fall to roughly 25%.

The policy also lets defaulters who used the special loan-rescheduling facility between August 2024 and June 2026 settle their debts by repaying only the principal, with no further interest liability. Former Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor Muhammad A. (Rumee) Ali cautioned that mass interest waivers “can affect the strength and stability of banks, and ultimately that affects depositors as well,” while former BIBM Director General Dr. Toufic Ahmad Choudhury called the move “highly unethical,” arguing that “no one has the authority to forgive depositors’ money.” Bank executives suggest the central bank is moving to clean up balance sheets ahead of renewed loan-package discussions with the IMF.

For businesses: if your company carries a rescheduled or classified loan, this circular may materially change your negotiating position with your bank this quarter.

Source: The Business Standard — BB to allow waiver of Tk1 lakh crore interest on default loans to clean balance sheet

2. Parliament Passes Tk9.38 Lakh Crore FY27 Budget — Now in Effect

Parliament passed the Tk9,38,000 crore national budget for fiscal year 2026-27 by voice vote, and it took effect today, July 1. The budget allocates Tk6,05,740 crore for operating expenditure and Tk3,16,075 crore for the Annual Development Programme and other development spending, against a projected deficit of Tk2,43,000 crore. Total receipts, including grants, are targeted at Tk7,01,150 crore, with 86.1% of government revenue expected to come from National Board of Revenue tax collection.

The budget followed the Finance Bill 2026, passed a day earlier, which raised the tax-free income threshold to Tk4,00,000 for FY27-28 (rising to Tk5,00,000 by FY31), scrapped a controversial requirement to hold a Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) to open most bank accounts, and dropped a proposed clause that would have allowed undisclosed money into real estate without scrutiny. In their place, Business Identification Number (BIN) registration is now mandatory for business bank accounts, loans, trade licence renewals, and utility connections.

Source: The Business Standard — Parliament passes Tk9.38 lakh crore budget for FY27

3. Bangladesh Bank’s H1FY27 Monetary Policy: Rate Held at 10%, Credit-Growth Target Cut, GDP Forecast Below Government’s Target

Hours after the budget passed, Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman unveiled the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for July–December 2026. The key decisions:

• The repo (policy) rate stays at 10%, unchanged since October 2024, after 11 consecutive hikes between May 2022 and October 2024.
• The Standing Lending Facility rate remains 11.5% and the Standing Deposit Facility rate remains 7.5%.
• The lending-deposit interest rate spread is re-capped at 4% to curb excessive bank charges.
• The private-sector credit growth target for December is cut to 6.8%, down sharply from the 8.5% target originally set for FY26; actual credit growth had fallen to just 5% in May, near a decade-low.
• Bangladesh Bank now projects GDP growth of only 6.1% for FY27 — notably below the government’s own 6.5% budget target. FY26 provisional GDP growth came in at 4.14%, up from 3.49% the year before.
• A new Tk60,000 crore stimulus package for agriculture, industry, and small and medium enterprises was unveiled, funded by Tk41,000 crore in banking-sector surplus liquidity and Tk19,000 crore sourced directly by the central bank — designed to bypass high borrowing costs for productive sectors specifically.

Inflation remains the central bank’s stated top concern: point-to-point inflation hit 9.42% in May 2026, the highest reading in 16 months, well above the government’s 7.5% inflation target for FY27.

Sources: The Business Standard — Bangladesh Bank projects 6.1% GDP growth for FY27, below govt’s 6.5% target · The Business Standard — Cenbank cuts private sector credit growth target to 6.8% for December · Dhaka Tribune — Explainer: Monetary policy for H2’26 presents high-stakes gamble

4. DCCI and Economists Warn of a Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mismatch

The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) publicly pushed back on the central bank’s decision to hold rates at 10% even as private credit growth collapsed to 5%. DCCI President Taskin Ahmed called the decision “deeply disappointing,” arguing that Bangladesh’s four-year run of contractionary monetary policy has failed to bring inflation under control while simultaneously starving the private sector of affordable credit — creating what he called a “clear mismatch” between an expansionary, pro-business FY27 budget and a still-tight monetary stance. DCCI did, however, welcome the new Tk60,000 crore stimulus fund, while calling for transparent implementation and easier access for CMSMEs and export-oriented industries.

Independent economists broadly echoed the concern. Mustafa K. Mujeri of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development noted that inflation’s persistence over three years suggests it isn’t being driven by excess demand alone, meaning a high policy rate “will not be enough” on its own. Fahmida Khatun of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said liquidity support for industries “could aid recovery” but risks undermining monetary tightening if funds aren’t directed toward genuinely productive investment.

Sources: The Business Standard — DCCI says tight monetary policy may blunt benefits of private sector-focused budget · The Daily Star — BB sticks to tight monetary policy as inflation stays high

5. Foreign Exchange Reserves Cross $37.56 Billion; Remittances Close FY26 at a Record ~$35.4 Billion

Bangladesh Bank data show gross foreign exchange reserves at $37.56 billion as of June 30, 2026, with reserves under the IMF’s stricter BPM6 accounting standard at $32.90 billion. Officials described the reserve position as reflecting external-sector stability amid ongoing global uncertainty.

Remittance inflows for the full FY2025-26 fiscal year reached roughly $35.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 17% — a fiscal-year record for Bangladesh, driven by streamlined banking channels and greater use of formal remittance transfer methods over informal (hundi) channels.

Sources: BSS — Foreign currency reserve stands at $37.56b · BSS — Remittance inflow rises 17.3pc till June 29 in FY26 · The Business Standard — Remittances grow 17.6% to record $35.34b in FY26

6. DSEX Closes FY26 Up 19% — Dhaka Stock Exchange’s Strongest Annual Rally in Years

The benchmark DSEX index closed fiscal year 2025-26 at 5,762.83 points, a gain of roughly 19% (924 points) for the year — its best annual performance in years. The blue-chip DS30 index rose 20%. Total market capitalisation increased by Tk36,421 crore to Tk6.98 lakh crore, and daily turnover more than tripled to Tk1,500 crore on the year’s final trading session, from Tk464 crore a year earlier.

The rally has been attributed to several structural reforms: the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission’s withdrawal of the long-standing floor-price mechanism that had artificially restricted share prices, new BSEC leadership under chairman Masud Khan, and a package of capital-market-friendly measures in the FY27 budget — including cuts to dividend-income tax, removal of the investment ceiling for mutual fund tax rebates, and eased listing requirements designed to encourage more companies to go public.

Not all news from the exchange was positive: 36 of 204 listed companies with financial years ending June 30, 2025, have still not published audited annual financial statements, a year after the reporting deadline, leaving investors without visibility into the financial health of firms including Beximco Ltd, Active Fine Chemicals, and several textile and ceramics companies. Market analysts have called for stronger penalties, noting that Bangladesh’s Tk5,000-per-day late fee is far weaker than delisting-based enforcement used on exchanges like the London Stock Exchange.

Sources: The Business Standard — DSEX surges 19% in FY26 as reform-led rally breathes new life into Dhaka bourse · The Daily Star — Three dozen listed firms still have not filed FY25 reports

7. Bangladesh Economy Watch — Key Metrics (as of June 30–July 1, 2026)

8. Global Signal: What’s Shaping Bangladesh’s Import Costs and Investment Climate

Iran-US Doha Talks — Mixed Signals, Talks Continuing: President Trump claimed US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha on Tuesday; Iran’s foreign ministry denied any formal negotiation meeting was scheduled but confirmed it is sending an expert delegation to Doha to pursue the release of frozen Iranian assets. Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatar’s prime minister in Doha, discussing both the US-Iran memorandum and the Lebanon ceasefire. A key sticking point is a proposed Omani plan for shipping “service fees” through the Strait of Hormuz, which US officials say would amount to an illegal toll on international waters. This remains the single biggest swing factor for Bangladesh’s fuel-import costs and freight rates heading into July.

Source: Al Jazeera — Are US and Iranian negotiators meeting in Doha? What we know about talks

Strait of Hormuz Shipping: 32 vessels transited the strait in the 24 hours to Tuesday — still well below the roughly 110 ships-per-day average that crossed before the war began. Iran has exported an estimated 50 million barrels of crude since a US naval blockade was lifted two weeks ago.

Source: CNN — Live updates: US envoys in Qatar for talks with mediators about Iran

Oil Prices: Brent crude traded around $73-74 per barrel and WTI around $70-71 per barrel on June 30, both easing as markets focused on the Doha talks. Brent is on track for its worst quarter since 2020, down roughly 20% for the month of June alone, as peace efforts and expectations of restored Gulf oil flows weigh on prices — a potential relief for Bangladesh’s state fuel importer, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), if the trend holds.

Source: OilPrice.com / TradingEconomics — Crude Oil Price Data

Wall Street: US markets closed out the second quarter of 2026 on a high note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 52,319.20, its second consecutive record close; the S&P 500 gained 0.79% to 7,499.36; and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.52% to 26,213.72. Q2 2026 was the strongest quarter for major US indexes since the 2020 pandemic rebound — a modestly positive signal for Bangladesh’s IT-outsourcing and technology-services demand pipeline.

Source: Google Finance — US Market Data

Israel-Lebanon: A US-brokered framework agreement signed on June 26 ties any Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah’s disarmament, rather than mandating withdrawal outright. Hezbollah has called the deal “null and void,” and supporters blocked roads in Beirut in protest. Analysts warn the arrangement could leave Israeli forces in Lebanon indefinitely — a continuing source of Middle East labour-market and remittance-flow risk for Bangladesh.

Source: Al Jazeera — Israel-Lebanon deal ties ceasefire to Hezbollah disarmament: Will it work?

Bitcoin: Bitcoin traded around $59,100 on June 30, closing out its worst monthly performance of the current correction cycle. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 15 (Extreme Fear), a slight recovery from Monday’s cycle-low of 12. Business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is reportedly preparing to sell up to $1.25 billion of its Bitcoin holdings — its first-ever formal sell authorisation — adding to broader market pressure alongside continued ETF outflows.

Source: Yahoo Finance — Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD)

Bangladesh-US Trade: The Bangladesh-US base tariff remains at 19% under the current Adjusted Reciprocal Tariff (ART) framework introduced in February 2026, which also bars Bangladesh from trade deals with non-market economies including China. A proposed additional 10% forced-labour tariff from the USTR on Bangladeshi exports remains pending. Bangladesh’s LDC (Least Developed Country) graduation is set for November 2026.

Source: Dhaka Tribune — Business

9. AI This Week: Anthropic Launches Claude Sonnet 5 — A Cheaper Way to Run AI Agents

Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, a more powerful and cost-efficient version of its mid-size AI model, now positioned as the default model across free and Pro subscription tiers. The company says Sonnet 5 delivers agentic performance — planning multi-step tasks, using tools like browsers and terminals, and running autonomously — that just months ago required larger, more expensive models. At launch, pricing is set at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens through August 31, undercutting both Anthropic’s own flagship Opus 4.8 model and competing offerings from OpenAI and Google.

Why this matters for Bangladesh’s outsourcing and freelance sector: the practical shift isn’t that a new AI model exists — it’s that agent-based automation, which can complete multi-step client work with minimal supervision, has become significantly cheaper to run at scale. For Dhaka-based developers and agencies quoting AI-agent automation projects, this is a direct input into project-cost calculations for the next billing cycle.

Source: TechCrunch — Anthropic launches Claude Sonnet 5 as a cheaper way to run agents

Key Takeaways for Bangladesh Businesses and Investors

1. Banking sector reform is accelerating — the Tk1 lakh crore interest waiver is the most consequential regulatory shift for borrowers and lenders alike this quarter.
2. The FY27 budget and monetary policy are pulling in different directions — pro-business tax measures on one side, a still-tight 10% policy rate on the other. Businesses reliant on bank financing should expect borrowing costs to stay elevated through at least December 2026.
3. Bangladesh’s macro fundamentals improved through FY26 — record reserves, record remittances, and a 19% stock market rally — but inflation above 9% for three consecutive years remains the unresolved core problem.
4. Global oil and shipping costs hinge on today’s Doha outcome — a resolution would ease import costs; a breakdown would reverse recent price relief.
5. AI-driven automation costs are falling fast — a genuine competitive input for Bangladesh’s IT and outsourcing sector, not just a headline.

This roundup is compiled from Bangladesh Bank, Dhaka Stock Exchange, BSS, The Business Standard, The Daily Star, Dhaka Tribune, Al Jazeera, CNN, and TechCrunch reporting dated June 30–July 1, 2026. All source links are provided above for verification and further reading.