By ORAWEK | ভোরের সংক্ষেপ — The Morning Brief for Dhaka’s Professionals

Published: Thursday, 02 July 2026 | Business · Economy · AI | 8:00 AM Dhaka

This is the long-form version of our morning brief. For the shorter version, please visit:  Today’s Morning Brief

1. Bangladesh Bank Holds Policy Rate at 10%, Unveils Aggressive 18-Month NPL Reduction Plan

On June 30, 2026, Bangladesh Bank (BB) announced its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the July-December period of FY2026-27, maintaining the policy repo rate at 10 percent—unchanged since October 2024 following 11 consecutive hikes between May 2022 and October 2024. The Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rate remains at 11.5 percent and the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate at 7.5 percent.

BB Governor Md. Mostaqur Rahman defended the contractionary stance, stating that “point-to-point headline inflation declined to 9.4 percent in May 2026 from 11.7 percent in July 2024,” but stressed that restrictive policy must continue to achieve the government’s 7.5 percent inflation target for FY2026-27.

Source: BSS — BB adopts cautious MPS to curb inflation

The 18-Month NPL Roadmap

Perhaps the most significant announcement was BB’s 18-month plan to tackle non-performing loans (NPLs). At the end of March 2026, total NPLs in the banking sector stood at Tk5,88,704 crore, accounting for 32.26% of total disbursed loans of Tk18,24,668 crore. The gross NPL ratio had climbed sharply from 20.20 percent in December 2024 to 35.73 percent in September 2025 before easing to 32.26 percent by March 2026.

The seven-point roadmap includes:

1. Strengthening Risk-Based Supervision (RBS) and executing bank-specific Asset Quality Reviews (AQRs)

2. Linking capital restoration and provisioning plans to asset recovery metrics

3. Reserving loan restructuring for viable enterprises only

4. Accelerating asset recovery through specialized internal recovery units and fast-tracking Artha Rin Adalat proceedings

5. Operationalising Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) framework

6. Implementing the Bank Resolution Act 2026 and Deposit Protection Act 2026

7. Supporting the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework under IFRS 9

Governor Rahman emphasized that keeping bad loans on balance sheets is a form of “misrepresentation” and encouraged banks to write them off—though borrowers remain liable and legal proceedings continue.

Source: TBS — What are the 7 points BB charts to tackle bad loans?

Tk 60,000 Crore Stimulus Package

To support economic recovery, BB announced a Tk 60,000 crore stimulus package for agriculture, CMSMEs, and key industrial sectors. Tk 41,000 crore will come from surplus liquidity in the banking system, while Tk 19,000 crore will be financed from BB’s own sources. The initiative is expected to create nearly 25 lakh direct and indirect employment opportunities.

2. Corporate Profits Plunge 44% as Inflation, Energy Crisis Deepen Pressure

Corporate profits in Bangladesh fell 44% in the last fiscal year, as rising inflation and the energy crisis squeezed margins across sectors. The sharp decline underscores the severity of the economic headwind facing the private sector.

Source: TBS — Corporate profits plunge 44% inflation energy crisis deepen pressure

Inflation Remains Stubbornly High

As of May 2026, overall inflation had reached a 16-month high of 9.42 percent, with food inflation at 9.06 percent and transport inflation at 9.86 percent. BB Governor noted that monetary tightening alone cannot fully address inflation driven by structural market inefficiencies and supply-side bottlenecks.

Source: The Daily Star — Inflation hits 16-month high, further spike feared

3. JICA President Arrives in Dhaka; Bangladesh Seeks Lower Loan Rates

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) President Tanaka Akihiko arrived in Bangladesh on July 1 for a five-day visit. Discussions are expected to focus on Japanese-funded development projects, including stalled metro rail schemes (MRT Line-1 and MRT Line-5 Northern), which have reportedly remained stalled for around one and a half years.

Bangladesh is expected to request Japan to reduce the interest rate on JICA loans, which reportedly rose to 5.05% from the previous 2.35%. Japan is Bangladesh’s largest bilateral development partner, with cumulative ODA commitments now standing at $34.21 billion.

On July 2, the JICA president will pay homage to victims of the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery tragedy.

Sources: TBS — Jica president arrives in Bangladesh on five-day visit | Financial Express — BD may request cut in hiked loan interest rate

4. US Working to Narrow Trade Gap with Bangladesh; Seeks Stronger Business Ties

A US Embassy delegation led by Commercial Counsellor Paul Frost met with Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) leaders on July 1. The US said it is working to deepen commercial ties and narrow its trade imbalance with Bangladesh.

Bangladesh called for greater US investment in Chattogram’s planned Free Trade Zone and major infrastructure projects including the Bay Terminal, Matarbari Deep Sea Port, Dhaka-Chattogram Expressway, and Sonadia Deep Sea Port.

Frost stated that the US government is working with Bangladesh to improve the investment climate and narrow the bilateral trade imbalance. BD-US base tariff remains 19% under ART, with USTR’s proposed additional 10% forced-labour tariff on BD exports still pending.

Source: TBS — Bangladesh courts greater US investment in Chattogram’s mega projects, free trade zone

5. Economy Watch: Key Data at a Glance

FY27 Budget: Tk9,38,000cr · Effective 1 Jul · Deficit Tk2,43,000cr

Sources: Bangladesh Bank | BSS | TBS | The Daily Star

6. Global Signal: What Reaches Dhaka

Oil Prices Rise on Iran-US Talk Breakdown Concerns

Brent crude futures rose 0.69% to $73.45 a barrel, while WTI crude increased 0.91% to $70.13 a barrel on July 1 as concerns mounted that a ceasefire between Iran and the US would be difficult to achieve. Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha for high-level talks, but Iran reportedly rejected direct peace talks.

Source: Economic Times — Oil Price Today (July 1)

Bitcoin Slides to 21-Month Low

Bitcoin dropped as much as 1.5% to $57,742 in Asian trading on July 1, its lowest level since September 17, 2024. At 9 a.m. Eastern Time, one Bitcoin was priced at $58,278.23, down roughly $47,430 from a year earlier. ETF outflows and a strong US dollar continue to pressure the crypto market.

Source: Fortune — Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026

Fed Rate Decision Looms

CME’s FedWatch tool assigns a 66.3% probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in July, with a 33.7% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. The current target federal funds rate stands at 3.50%–3.75%.

Source: CME FedWatch

7. AI This Week: Claude Sonnet 5 Makes Agentic AI Affordable

Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30—a meaningfully cheaper model built specifically for running autonomous agent work, now the default for free and Pro plans. The pitch: near-Opus-level performance on planning, tool use, and coding at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens through August.

For Dhaka’s freelance and agency developers, the practical implication is significant: agentic automation—AI that can plan multi-step tasks, use a browser/terminal, and self-check—just became cheap enough to run on client work at scale, not just prototype. Re-run your token-cost math before finalising your next proposal.

Source: TechCrunch — Anthropic launches Claude Sonnet 5

8. The Bottom Line: What This Means for Bangladeshi Professionals

For Business Owners: BB’s decision to hold rates at 10% while cutting private credit growth targets to 6.8% signals continued tight liquidity. The 18-month NPL roadmap may eventually clean up bank balance sheets, but in the short term, banks will remain cautious lenders. Corporate profits are down 44%—the environment remains challenging.

For Investors: The DSEX closed FY26 up 19% at 5,762.83, its best annual performance in years. The stimulus package and capital-market reforms could provide further momentum, but watch for volatility.

For Exporters: The US is working to narrow the trade gap, which could mean both opportunities and pressure. The BD-US tariff remains at 19% under ART.

For Freelancers & Developers: Claude Sonnet 5 makes agentic AI affordable. Re-run your project cost math.

ORAWEK Digest — ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
The Morning Brief for Dhaka’s Professionals
Thursday, 2 July 2026
~1,500 words | Free forever | Weekday Edition

Sources:

• BSS — BB adopts cautious MPS to curb inflation

• TBS — Cenbank to unveil new monetary policy tomorrow

• TBS — What are the 7 points BB charts to tackle bad loans?

• TBS — খেলাপি ঋণ কমাতে ১৮ মাসের পরিকল্পনা

• TBS — Corporate profits plunge 44%

• TBS — Jica president arrives in Bangladesh

• TBS — Bangladesh courts greater US investment

• The Daily Star — BB sees room to ease inflation further

• The Daily Star — Inflation hits 16-month high

• The Daily Star — GDP crosses half-a-trillion-dollar mark

• BSS — Foreign currency reserve stands at $37.56b

• BSS — Remittance inflow hits record $35.56bn in FY26

• Financial Express — Bajus cuts gold price

• Financial Express — New BB chief too chooses monetary contraction

• Economic Times — Oil Price Today (July 1)

• Fortune — Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026

• TechCrunch — Anthropic launches Claude Sonnet 5

• Bangladesh Bank — Exchange Rate

• Bangladesh Bank — Foreign Exchange Reserve