Dhaka’s business, economy, and AI briefing for July 9, 2026 — covering Bangladesh’s banking sector stress, June PMI contraction, FDI growth, USD/BDT and DSEX data, and the overnight US-Iran escalation shaping global oil prices.

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Bangladesh’s professionals woke up on Thursday, July 9, 2026 to a banking sector story that has been building for months and finally broke into the open: the country now carries the world’s second-highest non-performing loan ratio, right behind war-torn Ukraine. At the same time, the finance ministry moved to reassure ordinary depositors, June’s manufacturing PMI confirmed a broader industrial slowdown, and overnight developments in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher again. Here is everything Dhaka’s business community needs to start the day informed.

Bangladesh Now Has the World’s Second-Highest NPL Ratio at 32.26%

Bangladesh’s banking sector has crossed into genuine crisis territory. The country’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio now stands at 32.26%, the second-highest in the world after Ukraine’s 37.35% — a country that has been at war since 2022. For context, Bangladesh’s NPL ratio is now six to fifteen times higher than any of its South Asian peers: India sits at 2.2%, and Sri Lanka, itself recovering from a sovereign default, is at 6.5%.

The numbers behind the headline ratio are just as alarming. NPLs rose by more than Tk31,000 crore in the three months to March 2026 alone, pushing the total to Tk5.89 lakh crore. When restructured and rescheduled loans are added to the picture, stressed assets now account for more than 61% of all bank loans in the country — meaning the true scale of distress in the banking sector is likely far larger than the headline NPL figure suggests.

Perhaps most striking is that the sector’s overall Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR) — the buffer banks are required to hold against losses — has turned negative, at -2.64%, down from a positive 3.08% in 2024. Nineteen banks currently fail to meet the minimum regulatory CRAR requirement of 12.5%. Bankers and analysts point to years of politically influenced lending decisions as the root cause of the crisis.

In response, Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has announced an 18-month reform roadmap. It includes a shift to Expected Credit Loss (ECL) provisioning by 2027 — a more forward-looking accounting standard than Bangladesh currently uses — alongside a new Loan Court Act to speed up recovery of defaulted loans, and a Distressed Asset Management Act to give the central bank formal tools to manage and dispose of bad assets.

Source: TBS News — Bangladesh has world’s 2nd-highest NPL rate after war-hit Ukraine, 8 Jul 2026

No Haircut for Depositors: Finance Minister Promises Full Money Back With Interest

Against this backdrop of banking distress, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury moved to calm public anxiety, telling parliament that depositors of troubled banks will receive their full deposits back, with interest — no haircut — although he cautioned the process will take time to complete.

This assurance comes under the newly enacted Bank Resolution Act 2026, which has already been used to merge five troubled banks — EXIM Bank, First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, Social Islami Bank, and Union Bank — into Islami Bank PLC, with all depositor claims preserved through the merger. Separately, the Deposit Protection Act 2026 raised the government-protected deposit limit to Tk2 lakh, up from the previous Tk1 lakh ceiling. Forensic audits into the five merged banks are currently underway to establish the full extent of financial irregularities.

Source: TBS News — No haircut, depositors of five troubled banks get back full money with interest: Khosru, 8 Jul 2026

June PMI Falls 9.9 Points to 52.9 as Manufacturing and Construction Contract

Bangladesh’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell sharply in June, dropping 9.9 points to 52.9 from 62.8 in May — a signal that private-sector business activity is losing significant momentum even though the index remains technically in expansion territory (above 50).

The sub-indices tell a more concerning story. Manufacturing reversed into outright contraction at 48.8, down from 64.1 the previous month, while construction fell to 40.2. Agriculture (64.8) and services (54.6) held up comparatively better, cushioning the overall reading. Survey respondents pointed to higher gas and fuel prices, the newly implemented 15% VAT, and ongoing financing constraints as the main headwinds weighing on business activity.

Source: TBS News — June PMI drops to 52.9 amid manufacturing, construction contractions, 8 Jul 2026

FDI Rises 45% to $1.78bn — But Bangladesh Still Trails Smaller Economies

There is genuine good news too. Bangladesh recorded 45% growth in foreign direct investment, reaching $1.78 billion, according to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2026 — the fastest percentage growth rate anywhere in South Asia. The FDI stock now stands at $19.63 billion.

However, in absolute dollar terms, Bangladesh’s FDI intake still trails several smaller economies, including Uganda ($3.4 billion), Ghana ($1.9 billion), and the Democratic Republic of Congo ($1.9 billion). FDI as a share of gross fixed capital formation remains just 1.4%, underscoring how much of the country’s investment and growth still depends on domestic financing rather than foreign capital.

Separately, HSBC has forecast 4.4% GDP growth for Bangladesh in FY27, an improvement on FY26’s actual growth of 4.14%, citing easing global oil prices and continued reform momentum as tailwinds.

Source: Dhaka Tribune — Bangladesh’s 45% FDI surge still trails smaller economies, 8 Jul 2026 · The Daily Star — Bangladesh economy to grow 4.4% in FY27: HSBC, 8 Jul 2026

Financial Account Rebounds to $4.16bn Surplus, But Trade Deficit Widens

Bangladesh’s financial account rebounded to a surplus of over $4.16 billion in the first 11 months of FY26, a sharp turnaround from a $214 million deficit in the same period of FY25. At the same time, the trade deficit widened to $23.98 billion, up from $19.38 billion, as exports declined roughly 2% while imports grew 6.3%.

Remittance inflows remain a bright spot, reaching $32.77 billion in the first 11 months of FY26 — up 19.1% year-on-year — with May alone contributing $3.43 billion. RMG exports in May reached $3.59 billion, up 29% over the prior three months.

Source: TBS News — Financial account rebounds to over $4b surplus in 11 months, 9 Jul 2026 · BSS News, 8 Jul 2026

Bangladesh Economy Watch — Key Data Points, July 9, 2026

• USD/BDT (Interbank): 122.85 taka (High/Low/WAR: 122.8500); FX market spot rate 123.42 taka (till 5:00 PM), 8 July 2026. Source: Bangladesh Bank
• Yuan/BDT: Bid rates 18.0558 / 18.0569, 8 July 2026. Source: Bangladesh Bank
• DSEX (Dhaka Stock Exchange): Closed at 5,770.27 points, down 11.00 points (-0.19%), as the index extended its losing streak on profit-taking, 8 July 2026, 2:40 PM. Source: DSE Official
• Gold (22K/Bhori): Tk225,290, unchanged from the previous day. Source: BAJUS / Goldr.org
• Inflation (June 2026, point-to-point): 9.16%, down from 9.42% in May; food inflation 8.60%, non-food inflation 9.61%. Source: BBS
• 12-month average inflation (FY26): 8.68%, down from 10.03% in FY25, against a government target of 7.0%. Source: TBS News — GED Economic Update, 8 Jul 2026
• NPL Ratio: 32.26% — world’s 2nd-highest after Ukraine; Tk5.89 lakh crore in NPLs; stressed assets 61% of total loans. Source: TBS News
• Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR): -2.64%, down from +3.08% in 2024; required minimum is 12.5%. Source: TBS News
• Policy Rate (BB Repo): 10.0%, unchanged since October 2024; Standing Lending Facility 11.5%, Standing Deposit Facility 7.5%. Source: Bangladesh Bank, H1FY27 Monetary Policy Statement
• GDP Growth: FY26 actual 4.14%, up from 3.49% in FY25; FY27 forecast at 4.4% (HSBC). Source: The Daily Star, 8 Jul 2026
• Gross Forex Reserves: $36.52 billion; net reserves $27.93 billion; BPM6 gross reserves $31.72 billion after a $1.48 billion Asian Clearing Union (ACU) payment. Source: BSS News, 7 Jul 2026
• Financial Account (11M FY26): +$4.16 billion surplus, rebounding from a $214 million deficit in FY25. Source: TBS News, 9 Jul 2026
• Trade Deficit (11M FY26): $23.98 billion, widened from $19.38 billion; exports down ~2%, imports up 6.3%. Source: TBS News
• Remittances (11M FY26): $32.77 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year; May remittances $3.43 billion. Source: BSS News, 8 Jul 2026
• RMG Exports (May 2026): $3.59 billion, up 29% over the prior three-month average. Source: BSS News
• FDI (2025): $1.78 billion, up 45% year-on-year; FDI stock $19.63 billion; still trails Uganda, Ghana, and DRC in absolute terms. Source: Dhaka Tribune, 8 Jul 2026
• Government Procurement Reform: A 9-member panel has been formed to review the Public Procurement Act 2006 and Rules 2025. Source: The Daily Star, 8 Jul 2026
• LDC Graduation: Scheduled for 26 November 2026; the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) has recommended a three-year extension to 2029.

Global Signal: US Launches Second Night of Strikes on Iran, Oil Surges Again

Overnight developments in the Middle East once again dominate the global backdrop for Bangladesh’s trade and energy costs. The United States carried out a second, larger wave of airstrikes on Iran early Thursday, following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump warned that further Iranian attacks would see the US response “get much worse,” while Vice President Vance said Washington would “punch back harder than ever before” if shipping attacks continued. Iran, in turn, again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Later reports suggested Trump indicated Iran was seeking a deal “so badly.” Separately, mass funeral processions for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei continued across Iraq’s Shiite holy cities, a development that has paused diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran.

Source: Times of Israel — US launches second night of strikes against Iran, 9 Jul 2026

Oil prices surged on the news: Brent crude jumped roughly 5% to $77.7-$78 per barrel, and WTI rose to around $72-$74 per barrel, reversing a recent slide back toward pre-war levels. The US also formally revoked Iran’s oil-sanctions waiver, effective July 17. For Bangladesh, sustained oil prices above $75 a barrel translate directly into a heavier fuel import bill.

Source: Al Jazeera / CNBC, 8 Jul 2026

The Joint Maritime Information Center raised its threat assessment for the Strait of Hormuz to “severe,” warning of further hostile Iranian action against shipping — a waterway that typically carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG trade, and through which a meaningful share of Bangladesh’s energy imports pass.

Source: CNBC, 8 Jul 2026

Elsewhere, Lebanon is demanding Israel fulfil a pledged troop-pullout pilot before it will attend upcoming talks in Rome, while Israeli fire in Gaza killed at least seven people, including an aid worker and a child; Hamas has meanwhile begun dissolving its civilian governing body in favour of a technocratic committee.

Source: Times of Israel, 8 Jul 2026 · Times of Israel, 8 Jul 2026

On Wall Street, the escalation hit blue chips hardest: the Dow Jones fell 1.09% (-576.76 points) to 52,348.39, the S&P 500 slipped 0.28% (-21.14 points) to 7,482.71, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.20% (+51.96 points) to 25,870.65.

Source: Google Finance, 8 Jul 2026

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% at Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 17, with the Fed’s dot plot flagging a possible rate hike by year-end amid Iran-driven inflation risk. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, and an uncertain US rate path continues to keep dollar funding costs elevated for Bangladeshi borrowers.

Source: Federal Reserve · CNBC, 17 Jun 2026

Bitcoin traded around $62,000-$62,100, down amid the renewed US-Iran hostilities and the pause in diplomatic talks during Iran’s mourning period.

Source: Yahoo Finance, 8 Jul 2026

Asian markets rebounded on Thursday morning despite the overnight tensions: South Korea’s Kospi surged roughly 2.9-3.7% and Japan’s Nikkei rose about 1.2-1.9%, led by chipmakers, even as WTI crude above $75 a barrel keeps energy-cost risks elevated for both economies.

Source: TradingKey, 9 Jul 2026

AI This Week: A Frontier Price War Is Good News for Cost-Conscious Dhaka Teams

Elon Musk’s SpaceXAI released Grok 4.5 this week, which Musk describes as an “Opus-class” model that is faster and more token-efficient than comparable frontier systems — priced at roughly $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens, well below the $5/$25 pricing typical of comparable frontier models. OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5.6 the same week, calling it its strongest model yet.

The practical takeaway for Bangladesh: as leading AI labs compete on price as aggressively as they compete on capability, the cost of running serious AI workloads — document processing, coding assistance, customer-support automation — is falling fast. For local firms currently evaluating AI tooling, this is the right moment to re-run cost comparisons rather than lock into pricing that is likely to be outdated within weeks.

Source: TechCrunch — SpaceXAI releases Grok 4.5, 8 Jul 2026

The Bottom Line for Dhaka’s Professionals

Two banking-sector numbers — a 32.26% NPL ratio and a negative capital adequacy ratio — are not abstractions. They are the direct explanation for why private-sector credit growth is stuck near a decade low, and why the government has had to step in with a pre-finance scheme to help closed factories reopen. The no-haircut pledge protects depositors today, but it is also a liability the state is choosing to carry until the Distressed Asset Management Act and Loan Court Act move from announcement to actual operation.

At the same time, HSBC’s 4.4% FY27 growth forecast and a 45% jump in FDI are genuine positives worth acknowledging. But with PMI at 52.9, manufacturing back in contraction, and a banking sector under this much stress, Bangladesh’s recovery is running on a narrower base than the headline numbers alone would suggest.

This article is part of ORAWEK’s daily “ভোরের সংক্ষেপ” (Morning Summary) — a free, five-section business, economy, and AI briefing for Bangladesh’s professionals, published every weekday at 8:00 AM. Read more at Today’s Morning Brief or subscribe via our WhatsApp channel.