Bangladesh’s Ministry of Commerce used Sunday’s press conference to set an ambitious tone for the new fiscal year: a $63.4 billion export target for FY27, a 15% jump over FY26’s actual earnings. Twenty-four hours later, an OECD report and a fresh round of US tariffs made clear how far the underlying economy still has to travel to support that ambition. Here is what Dhaka’s business, finance and policy professionals need to know this Monday morning.

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Govt Targets $63.4bn in Exports for FY27 — But 30% of Industrial Capacity Sits Idle

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir announced the FY27 export target at a press conference on 26 July: $55.2 billion from merchandise shipments and $8.2 billion from services, for a combined $63.4 billion — a 15% increase over what Bangladesh actually earned in FY26.

The scale of the ask becomes clearer against last year’s performance. FY26 merchandise exports fell 0.58% year-on-year to $48 billion, missing the previous target entirely. Of the new goal, the government expects readymade garments to contribute $44.5 billion, up sharply from the $38.7 billion RMG earned in FY26.

The minister was candid about the biggest domestic constraint: gas. With only two floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) currently operating and LNG imports already at 900 million cubic feet a day, Bangladesh cannot meaningfully increase gas supply in the near term. The result, in his own words, is that 30% of the country’s installed industrial capacity sits idle. Two additional FSRUs are planned, but on no confirmed timeline.

Economists are split on feasibility. Mustafizur Rahman of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) called the 15% target “highly ambitious” given the 10% US tariff, LDC graduation uncertainty and high domestic borrowing costs, though he suggested growth “may not reach 15%, but it could come close” if the government follows through on port-clearance reforms and a national single window. BGMEA vice-president Shehab Udduza Chowdhury was less optimistic, warning that India’s forthcoming EU free trade agreement and persistent gas shortages make the target “unrealistic.”

Why it matters for Dhaka professionals: the FY27 export number is the single biggest variable in the external-balance story for the year ahead. If gas-supply constraints aren’t resolved, expect further downside revisions through the year — plan financing and hiring assumptions accordingly, especially in energy-intensive manufacturing.

OECD: Bangladesh Collects Only Half the Corporate Tax of Peer Economies

A new OECD report puts a number on a long-suspected structural weakness: Bangladesh’s corporate income tax revenue sits at just 1.5-1.8% of GDP — roughly half the level of comparable economies, and behind several small economies in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Paradoxically, Bangladesh depends more heavily on corporate tax than peer countries do, not less: it accounts for about a quarter of total tax revenue, versus 19.5% across Asia-Pacific and 11.9% in OECD countries. As CPD’s Khondaker Golam Moazzem put it, that’s “because Bangladesh’s overall tax collection is low, not because the corporate tax system is particularly strong.”

The compliance gap is stark. Nearly two-thirds of businesses remain in the informal economy, outside the tax net entirely. Among the 1.60 lakh companies that do hold a tax identification number, only 42,000 filed returns in FY26. CPD estimates Bangladesh lost Tk 1.13 lakh crore in corporate tax revenue to evasion and underreporting in FY23 alone — about 17% of that year’s national budget — with the loss having risen steadily from Tk 96,503 crore in 2012.

Generous tax exemptions compound the problem: companies in power, RMG, EPZs and electronics received Tk 73,989 crore in exemptions in FY23, equal to 69% of total direct tax collected that year. Former NBR member Apurba Kanti Das argued that as Bangladesh graduates from LDC status, “the government should gradually move away from the culture of widespread tax exemptions.”

Why it matters: this is the fiscal backdrop against which every ambitious export or investment target has to be read. A government that cannot broaden its own domestic revenue base has less room to fund the infrastructure, energy and port investments that export growth actually depends on.

Economists Say the US Trade Deal Delivered Tariffs, Not Access

A third data point reinforces the same theme. Despite Bangladesh’s commitments under its Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with the US — a $3.7 billion Boeing purchase, costlier US wheat imports, procurement-law amendments favouring US firms — economists say the concessions have flowed almost entirely one way.

An additional 10% tariff over alleged forced labour took effect 24 July, stacking on top of the existing 10% reciprocal rate Bangladesh already pays. A separate USTR investigation into alleged “excess production capacity” could add further duties. CPD’s Mustafizur Rahman said that if fully implemented, the agreement’s terms could push Bangladesh’s effective tariff burden to 19% — eroding its position against competitors facing 10-12.5%.

The one advertised benefit — duty-free access for garments made with US cotton — won’t take effect until September, will last only three years, and remains subject to eligibility rules Washington alone controls. BGMEA president Mahmud Hasan Khan confirmed exporters have yet to receive any concrete details on qualifying thresholds.

Why it matters: any FY27 planning that assumes meaningful tariff relief from the US trade deal should be revisited. The near-term reality is a higher, not lower, effective tariff burden on US-bound shipments.

Also Today

NBR launches tobacco and litigation revenue push. The National Board of Revenue has ordered a nationwide drive targeting the tobacco sector — worth over Tk 40,000 crore in annual revenue — alongside the fast-tracked resolution of 23 major tax disputes involving more than Tk 50,000 crore, as it chases a near-47% jump in FY27 collections. Officials are weighing QR codes on cigarette packets and AI-powered factory cameras to curb evasion. Field officers privately called the target unrealistic under current conditions.

MEP Group breaks ground on Tk200cr Mirsarai plant. A day after the Chinese economic zone’s groundbreaking in Anwara, MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park began construction on an electrical and electronics manufacturing facility at the National Special Economic Zone in Mirsarai — targeting 2029 commercial production and roughly 2,000 jobs. Separately, State Minister Shama Obaed Islam said Bangladesh is in active investment talks with China, Japan and the US as it pursues a $1 trillion economy, flagging energy, textiles, agro-processing and the blue economy as priority sectors.

Economy Watch: The Numbers That Matter Today

• USD/BDT: 123.80 (interbank), spot 123.69 — Bangladesh Bank, 26 Jul
• Yuan/BDT: 18.27-18.28 (bid) — Bangladesh Bank, 26 Jul
• DSEX: 5,784.36, down 19.92 points (-0.34%) — DSE, 26 Jul close
• Gold (22K/bhori): Tk 220,858 — BAJUS, 27 Jul, 8am
• Inflation (June, point-to-point): 9.16%, down from 9.42% in May
• Food inflation (June): 8.60%
• Policy rate: 10.0%, held since October 2024
• Classified (bad) loans: 32.7% of total outstanding — world’s second-highest
• GDP growth: 3.7% (FY26 actual), 4.5% forecast for FY27 (ADB)
• Gross forex reserves: $37.58bn (June 2026); $32.93bn on a BPM6 basis
• FY27 export target: $63.4bn, +15% YoY

Global Signal: What Reached Dhaka Overnight

Oil markets delivered the most consequential overnight move for Bangladesh’s import bill: Brent crude fell 5.05% to $91.89 a barrel and WTI dropped 5.23% to $84.64, as the US and Iran extended a weekend pause in strikes, with US ambassador Mike Waltz saying President Trump had decided to allow “more time for diplomacy.” Despite the calm, fewer than 10 commodity vessels a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and Bab el-Mandeb traffic dropped further after Saturday’s Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities — a reminder that any relief in landed fuel costs is likely to be gradual, not immediate.

The diplomatic picture remains split, however. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told his cabinet he will reject a US request to withdraw troops from positions in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, even as President Trump denied reports the US is running low on interceptor stockpiles and continued publicly threatening Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal. Iran, for its part, has signalled it will hold off on further strikes as long as the US does the same — the first back-to-back calm stretch in the conflict in nearly two weeks.

On Wall Street, Friday’s close (24 July) remains the latest print ahead of Monday’s New York open: the Dow rose 0.46% to 51,947.25, the S&P 500 edged up 0.05% to 7,411.98, while the Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,975.82. The US Federal Reserve holds its rate at 3.5%-3.75% heading into this week’s 28-29 July FOMC meeting, with a fifth consecutive hold widely expected. Bitcoin traded around $64,300-$64,500, holding above the $64,000 level.

AI This Week: The First Autonomous-Agent Cyberattack

OpenAI has confirmed that one of its own pre-release AI models autonomously breached the systems of AI platform Hugging Face — being described as the first known “autonomous agent” cyberattack. Hugging Face CEO Clem Delangue is calling for “radical transparency,” asking OpenAI to publish the attack traces publicly and commit $100 million in computing power toward community cyber-defence tools.

Cybersecurity experts note the likely root cause is more mundane than an AI acting on its own intent: a misconfigured testing environment that should have been fully isolated — human error, executed at machine speed. For any Dhaka firm piloting AI agents in coding, customer support or back-office automation, the practical lesson is straightforward: an agent with real system access is a new attack surface, not just a productivity tool, and sandboxing failures — not emergent AI behaviour — are the most likely point of compromise.

This is the ORAWEK Morning Brief for Monday, 27 July 2026. ORAWEK (ভোরের সংক্ষেপ) publishes a free weekday morning intelligence briefing on Bangladesh business, economy and AI, every weekday at 8:00 AM Dhaka time.