ORAWEK Morning Brief — Thursday, 13 August 2026

Bangladesh woke up Thursday to a severe energy crunch: a sharp drop in LNG supply has cut gas-fired power generation nearly in half, pushed the national power deficit above 3,000MW for several consecutive days, and left small manufacturers across the country burning through savings to keep paying workers who can’t work. The crisis unfolded on the same day the Cabinet approved a 13-year LNG supply deal with a US company at a renegotiated, higher price — and the same week Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury was publicly defending the government’s inflation data against accusations of manipulation.

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Gas Supply Collapse Leaves Grid Running on a Fraction of Capacity

LNG supply to the national grid fell to just 408 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on 12 August, down from 563.4 mmcfd the previous day and far below the combined 1,100 mmcfd regasification capacity of the country’s two floating storage and regasification units. Petrobangla said the drop happened because an LNG cargo could not be docked with the Summit FSRU due to rough seas, while the cargo already being processed was also nearing completion.

The numbers illustrate the scale of the shortfall. Total gas supply on 10–11 August stood at 2,199 mmcfd against demand of 3,854 mmcfd. The power sector alone needs roughly 2,524.9 mmcfd but received only 744.1 mmcfd. The result: gas-fired power generation fell to around 4,000MW against a total gas-based generation capacity of 12,154MW.

State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Anindya Islam Amit said the government adopted a new strategy from Wednesday evening and expects the situation to improve, adding that “there is no lack of effort on our part.”

Rural Areas Bear the Brunt

The Rural Electrification Board reported a 24–26% supply deficit across its service areas between 8 and 10 August. On 11 August, demand in REB areas stood at 10,699MW against supply of just 8,281MW — and officials speaking anonymously said even that demand figure understates reality, with actual average demand closer to 11,000–12,000MW.

Mymensingh, Sylhet and Rangpur are among the worst-affected districts, with some consumers facing 6 to 10 hours of load-shedding a day. REB officials in Gopalganj, Rajshahi, Nilphamari, Cox’s Bazar and other areas have sought additional police protection for substations and field staff amid growing public anger. The national power deficit crossed 3,000MW again on Wednesday night, reaching 3,056MW at around midnight, with maximum load-shedding running above 3,000MW for several days running and peaking near 3,757MW on 10 August — the highest level in recent memory.

Lower electricity imports from Adani Power, which usually supplies over 1,400MW but has recently managed only 900–1,000MW after heavy rain drenched coal during transportation, have compounded the shortfall.

CNG Queues and Small Businesses Absorb the Cost

The gas shortage has also produced hours-long queues at CNG filling stations nationwide, with drivers reporting waits of three-and-a-half hours or more, eating into their daily income.

For Bangladesh’s roughly 1.2 crore cottage, micro, small and medium enterprises — which employ 3 crore people and contribute more than 30% of GDP — the outages are proving costly in a very direct way. In Pabna, workshop owner Abdus Salam said his four heavy machines, including two lathes, sit idle for three to four hours on most working days, cutting his daily earnings from Tk2,000–3,000 to a fraction of that, forcing him to pay workers’ salaries from savings after 30 years in the trade. In Dhamrai, shoe factory managing director Rezbin Hafiz said buyers have already cut orders amid rising production costs, and the load-shedding is now delaying production further. In Keraniganj, engineering workshop owner Abul Kashem Titu said a job that once took 40 days to deliver is now stretching toward two months, even as he continues paying Tk4 lakh a month in wages to workers who often can’t work.

SME Foundation managing director Anwar Hossain Chowdhury warned of a possible “chain effect”: businesses unable to produce properly can’t market their goods or generate revenue to meet loan repayments, risking a wider knock-on impact across the economy.

Government Locks In 13-Year US LNG Deal at a Renegotiated, Higher Price

Against this backdrop, the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase on Wednesday approved a long-term deal for Bangladesh to import 117 cargoes of liquefied natural gas from Gunvor USA LLC, a Texas-based company, over 13 years — part of the reciprocal trade agreement Bangladesh signed with the United States earlier this year aimed at narrowing the bilateral trade deficit.

The pricing tells its own story about Bangladesh’s negotiating position. Gunvor’s original proposal offered LNG at JKM plus $0.10 per MMBtu for 2026–28 and 122% of Henry Hub plus $5.35 per MMBtu for 2029–38. During negotiations with Petrobangla, however, the price was pushed up to JKM plus $0.0875 per MMBtu for the earlier period and 121% of Henry Hub plus $5.20 per MMBtu for the later one — high enough that the CCGP suspended the approval process in early August before ultimately clearing it this week at the renegotiated, higher price. Of the 117 cargoes, five will be delivered this year, six in 2027, and three in 2028, with ten cargoes a year from 2029 through 2038.

The same CCGP meeting also approved six additional LNG cargoes from suppliers in the UK, Oman and Hong Kong, alongside fertiliser, rice, sugar, soybean oil and lentil import contracts.

Khosru Denies Inflation Data Manipulation, Cites $421 Billion SDG Gap

Speaking at the closing of a three-day Sustainable Development Goals conference in Dhaka, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury pushed back on public scepticism toward the government’s newly reported inflation figures. “This government will by no means distort information,” he told reporters, attributing July’s inflation decline mainly to lower rice and meat prices and saying officials had verified both the underlying data and the calculation methodology. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data released 11 August showed inflation falling to 8.32% in July, an eight-month low, down from 9.16% in June.

State Minister for Planning Zonayed Saki said the government would hold a dedicated briefing for journalists on how inflation is calculated, to make the process more transparent.

At the same conference, Khosru said Bangladesh faces a $421 billion financing gap to meet its Sustainable Development Goals and cannot rely on traditional public financing alone to close it. The government is instead pursuing “alternative financing,” including deeper capital-market development and attracting foreign fund managers. “We are already moving forward with the capital market. Our foreign fund managers are coming,” he said, while also noting efforts to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio.

Bangladesh Bank Flags Barriers to Cashless Adoption

A separate Bangladesh Bank report, “An Overview of Card Usage Patterns Within and Outside Bangladesh,” found that while card-based transactions are growing quickly — cards issued up 97% over five years, transaction volume up 91% to Tk44,813 crore as of June 2026 — the shift to a cashless economy still faces structural obstacles: inadequate digital infrastructure outside major cities, low financial literacy, cybersecurity concerns, high transaction costs, and a deep-rooted cash culture. Cash withdrawals still account for 7.11% of card transactions even as purchases dominate at 91.11%. Bangladesh Bank has waived merchant fees for small shopkeepers and street vendors using Bangla QR effective 1 October, part of a broader push to accelerate adoption.

Korea’s Kotra Deepens Role in Bangladesh’s New-Town Development

Separately, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency’s Dhaka office is expanding beyond traditional trade promotion into infrastructure feasibility studies and smart-city planning. Kotra launched a $3.5 million official development assistance project in March covering six infrastructure areas — water supply, renewable energy, e-logistics and waste treatment among them — to support new-town development under Korea’s Economic Innovation Partnership Programme. Deputy Director Lee Sung-hoon traced Kotra’s roots in Bangladesh to Daewoo’s 1978 garment joint venture, describing the knowledge transfer that helped build Bangladesh’s ready-made garment industry as “the single most important legacy” of the relationship — one the agency is now extending into infrastructure, AI, ICT and green projects.

Economy Watch: Bangladesh Data, 13 August 2026

• USD/BDT (interbank): 123.47 (High 123.75 / Low 123.42 / WAR 123.47); spot till 5pm 123.32 — 12 Aug reading, latest available
• Yuan/BDT: 18.29–18.31 (bid rates) — 12 Aug reading, latest available
• DSEX: 5,897, down 6.3 points (-0.11%) from 5,903.53 on 11 August — profit-taking ahead of expected margin-rule changes
• Gold, 22K/bhori: ৳235,146, unchanged from 12 August
• Inflation (July, point-to-point): 8.32%, an 8-month low, down from 9.16% in June; food inflation 7.16% (9-month low), non-food 9.28%
• Policy rate (BB repo): 9.5%, unchanged since the 50bps cut effective 30 July/2 August; SLF 11.0%, SDF 7.5%
• Private sector credit growth (June): 4.47%, a 33-year low, down from 4.98% in May
• Classified (bad) loans: 32.26% of total outstanding — Tk588,704cr of Tk1,824,668cr, as of end-March
• GDP growth: 3.7% (FY26 actual) vs. 4.5% forecast for FY27 (ADB), below BBS’s provisional 4.14% estimate
• ADB inflation forecast: 9.0% for 2026, 8.8% for 2027 — the actual July print now running below forecast
• Forex reserves: Gross $37.07bn, BPM6 basis $32.26bn — 12 August reading, up from $36.96bn/$32.15bn on 10 August
• Trade deficit (FY26): $27.28bn, a 3-year high, up 34% y/y — exports $43.85bn (flat), imports $71.14bn (+10.5%)
• SDG financing gap: $421bn, per Finance Minister Khosru — government turning to capital markets and foreign fund managers to help close it

Figures for USD/BDT, Yuan/BDT and gold are Bangladesh Bank/BAJUS readings taken as supplied and not independently re-verified; DSEX reflects a same-day correction against BSS’s confirmed market report (see note above); all other figures are the latest published data as of 13 August, 8 AM Dhaka time.

Global Backdrop: Hormuz Standoff Persists, US Inflation Eases

Oil prices held in a roughly $87–90 range through the week, with Brent trading near $88.47 and WTI near $82.89 as of Thursday morning Dhaka time, according to OilPrice.com. President Trump claimed the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz even as negotiations remain deadlocked and ship traffic through the strait fell to a weekly low — a standoff that continues to weigh on Bangladesh’s fuel-import costs just as the domestic gas shortage compounds the pressure.

On Wall Street, a softer-than-feared US inflation print — July CPI at 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since February — helped the S&P 500 gain 0.26% to 7,748.50 and the Nasdaq climb 0.54% to 26,588.49, while the Dow slipped a marginal 0.04%. Money markets now price under a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, a modest positive for emerging-market currencies including the taka, even as the Fed’s benchmark rate remains on hold at 3.50–3.75%.

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