ORAWEK Morning Brief — Sunday, 12 July 2026

Bangladesh starts the work week with three major economic threads converging at once: the IMF’s fact-finding mission arrives in Dhaka today to assess a fresh loan request, fresh Bangladesh Bank data shows the government borrowed more from commercial banks in FY26 than at any point on record, and Bangladesh has held onto second place in the US apparel market even as China’s share of that market collapses. Overnight, Iran has once again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, adding a fresh layer of uncertainty to energy import costs just as Dhaka’s professionals return to their desks.

This is the long-form version of our morning brief. For the shorter version, please visit:  Today’s Morning Brief

Here is everything Dhaka’s business, economy and AI-focused professionals need to know this morning, in under 300 words per section.

IMF Mission, Record Government Borrowing, and Bangladesh’s Apparel Market Position

IMF’s five-day fact-finding mission begins today

A high-level International Monetary Fund delegation led by Bangladesh Mission Chief Ivo Krznar arrives in Dhaka today for a five-day visit running through 16 July. The mission’s purpose is to assess the government’s readiness for a fresh loan package worth close to $4.5 billion. Krznar has been explicit that this is not a negotiation mission but rather what he calls a “fact-finding staff visit” — an exercise meant to shape the IMF’s internal assessment of Bangladesh’s policy direction and reform credibility ahead of any future lending programme.

Over five days, IMF officials will meet finance ministry and Bangladesh Bank representatives to discuss subsidy reform, exchange-rate policy, banking-sector restructuring, revenue mobilisation, and the FY27 budget and medium-term framework. According to finance ministry officials, formal loan negotiations could open only after the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Thailand this October — and only if this week’s assessment is favourable. Bangladesh previously received $3.595 billion of a $5.5 billion IMF programme before disbursements were suspended in December over unmet conditions; the current BNP government cancelled that programme and applied for a new one after accepting the underlying reform conditions.

Government borrowing from banks hit Tk1.31 lakh crore in FY26 — above every target set

Recent Bangladesh Bank data shows the government borrowed a net Tk131,129 crore directly from commercial banks during FY26, exceeding both the original fiscal target and the revised limits set during the year. This pushed the state’s total outstanding bank liabilities up by nearly 24% over twelve months — an acceleration that economists warn risks crowding out private-sector credit and complicating the central bank’s inflation management.

The mechanism is straightforward: as commercial banks direct more of their liquidity into government treasury bills and bonds, less capital remains available for private borrowers, and lending rates tend to rise as a result. This dynamic compounds a problem already visible in recent data — private-sector credit growth has slowed to just 4.7%, and classified (bad) loans now account for more than 32% of total bank lending, leaving banks reluctant to extend fresh credit even where demand exists.

A separate TBS report on private investment reinforces the same picture. Although the FY27 budget offers tax cuts and investment incentives, economists say lower taxes alone cannot offset financing costs when working-capital loans still carry interest rates of 14-15%. Businesses weigh tax savings against borrowing costs, energy reliability, ease of doing business, and demand conditions — and on most of those fronts, the picture has not meaningfully improved. If revenue collection continues to fall short of targets, the report warns, government borrowing needs could rise further still, deepening the credit squeeze on private industry just as the IMF arrives to review exactly this dynamic.

Bangladesh holds 2nd place in US apparel market, but hasn’t captured China’s lost share

Bangladesh remained the second-largest apparel supplier to the United States in the first five months of 2026, according to US Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) data, even as shipments fell 8.1% year-on-year to $3.25 billion. That decline nonetheless outperformed the broader US apparel import market, which contracted 9.3% over the same period, as American buyers continued pivoting away from China.

China’s exports to the US plunged 42.8% to $2.80 billion — a dramatic collapse driven by tariffs and sourcing diversification — but Bangladesh has captured only a modest share of the redirected orders. Vietnam extended its lead as the top US apparel supplier, with exports rising 1.5% to $6.39 billion, while Indonesia (+5.5%) and Cambodia (+14.9%) grew faster than Bangladesh in relative terms. There is an encouraging signal in the most recent monthly data: Bangladesh’s May exports to the US rose 6.0% year-on-year, outpacing the 2.8% growth in total US apparel imports, suggesting demand may be recovering after a weak start to the year. Bangladesh’s average unit price held broadly stable at $2.99 per square metre equivalent, indicating the earlier decline reflected softer order volumes rather than aggressive discounting.

SME owners and creative-economy stakeholders press for reform beyond budget handouts

Small and medium enterprise owners in Dhanmondi and Mohammadpur used a Dhaka Chamber of Commerce forum this week to demand five-year trade licence validity (up from the current term), lower real estate taxes, and easier import logistics, warning that administrative hurdles and energy shortages continue to curb turnover regardless of budget-level tax relief.

Separately, at a discussion organised by the Power and Participation Research Centre, creative-economy stakeholders welcomed the FY27 budget’s first-ever Tk800 crore action plan for the sector — split between a direct Tk300 crore allocation and Tk500 crore mobilised through Bangladesh Bank’s CSR fund — but argued the package alone will not achieve its stated goal of 500,000 new jobs without deeper reforms to outdated tax policy, weak copyright enforcement, and an unregulated licensing regime for domestic streaming platforms that currently compete against international OTT services operating with fewer obligations.

Economy Watch: Bangladesh Data, Updated 12 July 2026

• USD/BDT: Interbank rate 122.85 (High/Low/WAR), spot rate (till 5pm) 123.39, as of 9 July 2026, per Bangladesh Bank.
• Yuan/BDT: Bid rates of 18.0487 and 18.0497 as of 9 July 2026, per Bangladesh Bank.
• DSEX: Last close 5,804.06 points, up 33.79 points (+0.585%) as of 9 July 2026, 2:40pm — the market reopens today after the weekend.
• Gold (22K/bhori): Tk224,128 as of 8am today, up from Tk221,966 the previous day, per BAJUS rates.
• Inflation (June, point-to-point): 9.16%, down from 9.42% in May, against wage growth of just 8.18% — the 53rd consecutive month real incomes have shrunk, according to BBS data reported by Dhaka Tribune.
• Policy rate: 10.0% (BB repo rate), unchanged since October 2024; SLF at 11.5%, SDF at 7.5%.
• GDP growth: ADB estimates FY26 actual growth at 3.7%, below its earlier 4.0% call, and has cut its FY27 forecast to 4.5% from 4.7%. The government continues to target 6.5% growth.
• ADB inflation forecast (FY27): 8.8%, which Dhaka Tribune reports is the highest inflation forecast among South Asian economies for the year.
• Private-sector credit growth: 4.7%, reflecting both high interest rates and bank caution amid rising bad loans.
• Classified (bad) loans: More than 32% of total bank lending, per economists cited by TBS.
• Forex reserves (May, monthly): Gross reserves of $34,547.8 million; BPM6-basis reserves of $29,844.8 million, per Bangladesh Bank.
• Government bank borrowing (FY26, net): Tk131,129 crore, up approximately 24% year-on-year, exceeding both original and revised fiscal targets.
• IMF mission: Five-day fact-finding visit, 12-16 July, assessing a $4-4.5 billion loan request, led by Mission Chief Ivo Krznar.
• US apparel exports (Jan-May): $3.25 billion, down 8.1% year-on-year; Bangladesh remains the 2nd-largest supplier to the US as China’s share falls 42.8%.
• Creative economy package (FY27): Tk800 crore (Tk300 crore direct allocation plus Tk500 crore via Bangladesh Bank’s CSR fund), targeting 500,000 new jobs.
• Flood watch: National death toll has reached 44, with more than 10 lakh people affected across seven districts; heavy rain and rough seas have disrupted Chattogram Port operations and the broader supply chain.

Global Signal: What Reached Dhaka Overnight

Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed again. Early Sunday, Iran’s IRGC Navy said it struck and halted a vessel that had switched off its tracking systems and used what Iran called an “unauthorised route,” and declared the strait closed “until further notice” and “until the end of US interference” in the region. Any retaliation, the Navy warned, would draw a “severe response.” Oman is mediating technical and political talks between Tehran and Washington, with a draft proposal reportedly floating free passage through a southern corridor for vessels that avoid Iranian territorial waters. Iran’s new supreme leader has separately vowed to avenge his predecessor’s killing. For Dhaka, another Hormuz closure keeps shipping and fuel-import risk premiums elevated at precisely the moment the government is making its economic case to the IMF.

Oil prices eased Friday but remain elevated on the week. Brent crude slipped to around $75.5 per barrel on Friday, still on track for a roughly 4.7% weekly gain as Hormuz shipping disruption persisted through the week; WTI eased to around $71.2 per barrel, up about 3.5% on the week. The International Energy Agency has warned that prolonged tension could delay the rebuilding of global oil inventories later this year, even as the UAE pushed output to a record high. Sunday’s fresh Hormuz closure had not yet been reflected in Friday’s close, leaving real risk of a further move once markets open Monday.

Russia-Ukraine war intensifies into the weekend. Russia struck Kyiv with ballistic missiles and drone swarms overnight, wounding at least 11 civilians and damaging infrastructure across multiple districts, while a separate strike on Sumy killed at least five people, including a child, and injured 30 more. Local authorities say more than 60 people have been killed across Kyiv and its metropolitan area since the start of July alone — one of the war’s deadliest months. President Zelenskyy has urged allies to accelerate delivery of air-defence systems agreed at the recent NATO summit. The continuing war adds sustained pressure to global energy and shipping-insurance costs, compounding the Hormuz-driven risk.

Gaza and Lebanon ceasefires hold on paper, not on the ground. Israeli forces continued strikes in southern Lebanon over the weekend, killing two Lebanese army officers and drawing condemnation from Lebanon’s military, while strikes on Gaza killed two more Hamas-linked operatives despite the standing truce. Prime Minister Netanyahu says he has directed the military to raise Israel’s control over Gaza territory to 70%, up from 50% previously, with no indication of further troop withdrawal. Deployment of a small international peacekeeping force to Gaza remains stalled. The direct trade impact on Bangladesh is limited, but this adds to a broader picture of sustained Middle East risk alongside the Iran escalation.

Wall Street closed higher Friday, capping a positive week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29% (+149.60 points) to 52,637.01; the S&P 500 gained 0.42% (+31.75 points) to 7,575.39; the Nasdaq Composite added 0.29% (+74.72 points) to 26,281.61. Both the S&P and Nasdaq notched weekly gains, helped by SK Hynix’s record $26.5 billion US stock market debut, even as renewed Hormuz tension weighed on sentiment elsewhere. This is a mild positive signal for export and outsourcing-linked sentiment heading into the new week.

The Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%. The rate has remained unchanged since the 17 June meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who said last week in Sintra that inflation risks have eased recently while reaffirming the Fed’s 2% target. Markets are now watching whether renewed oil-driven inflation pressure from the fresh Hormuz escalation reopens the case for a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on 28-29 July. For Bangladesh, an uncertain US rate path keeps dollar funding costs elevated for local borrowers.

Bitcoin trades around $64,100-64,200, up roughly 1.5% over the prior session as broader risk sentiment stabilised somewhat after sharp “Extreme Fear” readings earlier in the week — though Sunday’s fresh Hormuz closure was too recent to be reflected in crypto pricing yet.

AI This Week: Practical Intelligence for Dhaka Professionals

OpenAI is building a dedicated “families” product line for ChatGPT, hiring a San Francisco-based product manager focused on families, caregivers and older adults. The move follows data shared with TechCrunch showing the share of ChatGPT users aged 35 and older rising to 31% globally, up from 26% a year earlier, with nearly one in four US parents now using the tool weekly, up from 16% a year prior.

The practical takeaway for Bangladeshi professionals: AI vendors are shifting from pure workplace-productivity pitches toward household and family-oriented product tiers. If your business touches households in any way — ed-tech, consumer fintech, retail, healthcare booking — expect AI vendors to introduce “family” and “trust and safety” tiers over the coming quarters. It is worth asking any AI vendor you evaluate this year what their child- and family-safety controls actually look like in practice, rather than assuming today’s adult-oriented safeguards will simply carry over to family-facing products you might build on top of them.

ORAWEK Note: A Real Observation From the Founder

Good morning, Dhaka, and happy first day of the week. The IMF lands today to listen, not negotiate — and what its team hears will be shaped by numbers we cannot spin: Tk1.31 lakh crore borrowed from our own banks this year, more than any target allowed. There is a pattern in today’s edition I keep circling back to: Bangladesh holding second place in the US apparel market, holding steady amid floods and Hormuz closures and credit squeezes — but “holding” is not the same as “gaining.” Something to sit with as markets reopen this morning. Have a good week ahead.

— Founder, ORAWEK

ORAWEK — ভোরের সংক্ষেপ (Morning Summary) — is a free daily business, economy and AI newsletter for Dhaka’s professionals, delivered every weekday morning at 8:00 AM via orawek.com and WhatsApp. Free forever.