Business, economy and policy news for Bangladesh’s professionals, published every weekday at 8:00 AM Dhaka time. Read by finance, trade and policy decision-makers across Dhaka.

Bangladesh woke up Wednesday to a rare morning where the quiet stories outweigh the loud ones. Inflation eased to an eight-month low. The Cabinet permanently shut the door on S Alam Group and Nassa Group ever reclaiming the banks their mismanagement broke. AmCham pledged another $5 billion in US investment interest. And exporters opened a new front in the long-running tariff fight with Washington. None of it will dominate global headlines. All of it will shape how Dhaka’s businesses plan the rest of the year.

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Inflation Falls to 8.32% in July — Two Months of Relief, Not One

Bangladesh’s general inflation rate fell to 8.32% in July 2026, down from 9.16% in June and the lowest reading since November 2025, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data reported by The Business Standard. Food inflation dropped sharply to 7.16%, a nine-month low, down from 8.60% in June and 7.56% in July last year. Non-food inflation eased to 9.28% from 9.61%, though it remains above the 9% threshold.

The significance here isn’t the single data point — it’s the second consecutive month of decline. June’s fall from May’s 9.42% could have been read as noise. July confirms a trend: a 0.84-percentage-point monthly drop, with both food and non-food categories moving the same direction. For businesses that have spent over a year pricing in near-double-digit inflation, this is the clearest signal yet that the disinflation Bangladesh Bank has been targeting through its policy rate cuts is starting to show up in the numbers that matter to households and firms alike.

Cabinet Repeals Provision 18(A) — S Alam and Nassa Group Permanently Barred From Reclaiming Banks

In a significant move for financial-sector governance, the Cabinet approved the draft Bank Resolution (Amendment) Act 2026 on Monday, permanently repealing the controversial Provision 18(A). That clause had allowed ousted controlling shareholders and distressed conglomerates to regain ownership of restructured banks by injecting fresh capital or settling liabilities — a “market-based rehabilitation” loophole that critics warned could let defaulting owners buy back the very institutions they had drained.

The repeal directly blocks any re-entry attempt by S Alam Group into the four merged Shariah-compliant lenders — First Security Islamic Bank, Social Islamic Bank, Union Bank and Global Islamic Bank, now consolidated into Sammilito Islami Bank — and by Nassa Group into Exim Bank. Together, these five entities carry a combined Tk147,000 crore in defaulted loans, roughly 79% of their advance portfolios. The government has committed Tk20,000 crore in equity toward Sammilito Islami Bank’s Tk35,000 crore capital base, with a further Tk15,000 crore structured as depositor-equity conversion.

Central bank officials clarified that removing Provision 18(A) does not pause ongoing legal recovery action — BFIU asset-tracing, account freezes and judicial proceedings against defaulters continue independently. What changes is that a resolved bank now stays permanently isolated from the controlling interests that broke it, closing a governance gap that had worried economists, the Newspaper Owners’ Association of Bangladesh, and financial-sector watchdogs alike.

AmCham Pledges to Help Mobilise a Further $5bn in US Investment

An AmCham Bangladesh delegation led by president Syed Mohammad Kamal met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman at the Secretariat on Tuesday, reaffirming the chamber’s commitment to deepening US-Bangladesh economic ties. AmCham noted its member companies have already invested more than $5 billion in the country and collectively contribute over 20% of Bangladesh’s tax revenue — and pledged to help mobilise an additional $5 billion in investment over the next five years through existing members and prospective US companies.

The chamber welcomed measures under the government’s FY2026-27 reform package — time-bound approvals and licensing, a single-window investment system, digital tax and VAT administration, simplified customs, and improved profit repatriation — while stressing that reforms need consistent implementation and long-term policy predictability to translate into actual capital commitments. AmCham also proposed establishing a Digital Economy Advisory Forum and a Public-Private Competitiveness Council to identify regulatory bottlenecks on an ongoing basis, spanning sectors from AI and cloud computing to healthcare, renewable energy and financial-sector modernisation.

Prime Minister Rahman told the delegation that Bangladesh has entered “a new phase of economic transformation” and that the government’s priority is ensuring effective implementation of ongoing reforms while strengthening investor confidence through predictable policies and continued dialogue with the private sector.

Exporters Seek a Share of $100bn in US Tariff Refunds

A separate but related story is playing out in the RMG sector. Following the US Supreme Court’s February ruling against the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff regime, Washington has refunded approximately $100 billion of the $166 billion it originally collected from US importers. Bangladeshi garment exporters who absorbed part of that tariff burden last year — cutting prices to retain orders when buyers pushed back — are now asking for their share.

BGMEA estimates the industry-wide average absorption at around 10% of the tariff cost, though individual exporters report figures as high as half the additional burden in some cases. BKMEA president Mohammad Hatem said buyers who received refunds should return the amounts they had deducted from suppliers. Since more than 90% of Bangladesh’s US-bound exports ship under FOB terms — where the buyer, not the supplier, formally pays the tariff — most exporters can only negotiate compensation informally, through higher future order volumes or price adjustments, rather than claim refunds directly. The smaller share shipped under Landed Duty Paid terms may be able to pursue legal refund claims with the help of US lawyers, according to BGMEA president Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu.

Bangladesh Bank’s Tk1,000cr Fund for 5,000 Young Entrepreneurs

Bangladesh Bank is establishing a Tk1,000 crore fund combining Tk500 crore in collateral-free loans (at 4-6% interest, up to Tk10 lakh per entrepreneur) with Tk500 crore in CSR-funded grants tied to repayment performance, targeting the creation of at least 5,000 new entrepreneurs. Banks will identify candidates across more than 500 upazilas through branch-level committees rather than centralised lobbying, and the scheme is open to both manufacturing and trading ventures — from fish farming and handicrafts to small-scale food production and SMEs more broadly.

The structure is notable for pairing cheap credit with a performance-based grant: an entrepreneur who borrows and repays well on a Tk10 lakh loan may become eligible for a matching Tk10 lakh grant, effectively halving their long-term cost of capital compared with conventional bank lending at 11-15% or NGO microcredit rates.

Economy Watch: Bangladesh Data, 12 August 2026

USD/BDT (interbank): ৳123.64 weighted average rate — high 123.75, low 123.58; spot rate (till 5pm) ৳123.49. 11 August 2026 reading, Bangladesh Bank.

Yuan/BDT: Bid rates ৳18.31–18.34. 11 August 2026, Bangladesh Bank.

DSEX: Closed at 5,903.53 points on 11 August, up 58.66 points (+1.00%) from the prior session’s 5,844.87. DSE, 11 August 2026, 2:40 PM.

Gold (22K/bhori): ৳235,146, up Tk1,108 from 10 August’s ৳234,038. BAJUS, 12 August 2026, 8 AM.

Inflation (July, point-to-point): 8.32%, an eight-month low, down from 9.16% in June. Food inflation 7.16% (9-month low); non-food 9.28%. BBS, 11 August 2026.

Policy rate (BB repo): 9.5%, unchanged since the 50bps cut effective 30 July/2 August. SLF 11.0%, SDF 7.5%.

Private sector credit growth (June): 4.47%, a 33-year low, down from 4.98% in May. No July reading yet.

Classified (bad) loans: 32.26% of total outstanding — Tk588,704cr of Tk1,824,668cr. End-March 2026 reading, latest available.

GDP growth: FY26 actual 3.7%, below BBS’s provisional 4.14%; ADB forecasts FY27 at 4.5%. ADB Asian Development Outlook, July 2026.

ADB inflation forecast: 9.0% for 2026, 8.8% for 2027 — though July’s actual print of 8.32% now sits below the annual forecast.

Forex reserves: Gross $36.96bn, $32.15bn on a BPM6 (IMF standard) basis. 10 August 2026 reading, latest available — no newer print yet.

Trade deficit (FY26): $27.28bn, a three-year high, up 34% y/y. Exports $43.85bn (flat), imports $71.14bn (+10.5%).

Merged Islamic banks — NPL burden: Tk147,000cr in defaulted loans across the five banks affected by this week’s Bank Resolution Act repeal, a roughly 79% default ratio, backed by Tk20,000cr in government equity and a planned Tk15,000cr depositor-equity conversion.

Global Signal: Hormuz Standoff Deepens, Markets Wait on US CPI

Oil markets stayed on edge overnight after US forces disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship with two Hellfire missiles for attempting to breach the Strait of Hormuz blockade toward an Iranian port. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reiterated that the strait stays closed until Washington ends the war, releases frozen Iranian assets and agrees to a regional ceasefire — even as Pakistan’s defence minister told Bloomberg the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement.” Brent crude held near $89.60 and WTI near $83.94, both live-checked against OilPrice.com, continuing a roughly $2-a-barrel climb since Monday that feeds directly into Bangladesh’s fuel-import costs.

Wall Street slipped for a second straight session Tuesday — the S&P 500 down 0.32% to 7,728.20, the Nasdaq down 0.60% to 26,445.45, and the Dow down 0.34% to 53,791.85 — as traders held back ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI print and oil prices climbed on the Hormuz uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s rate remains on hold at 3.50%-3.75% since its 29 July decision, with no new meeting before the inflation data lands. Elsewhere, Lebanon-Israel talks stalled in their seventh round in Rome but Beirut confirmed an eighth round for September, Russia-Ukraine strikes killed 5 in a combined drone-and-missile attack on Zaporizhzhia, and Singapore sharply raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.5-5.5% on AI-driven demand — a reminder that tech-linked tailwinds are, in places, outrunning the drag from the Middle East conflict.

AI This Week: Anthropic Begins Watermarking AI-Generated Text

Anthropic confirmed it will watermark text generated by Claude and its other AI models, in compliance with the EU AI Act’s Transparency Code that took effect 2 August. Models released after that date automatically embed the watermark, which travels with the text when copied elsewhere and may persist through some editing; files use the open C2PA standard. Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and others have committed to the same code.

For Dhaka businesses using AI tools for marketing copy, reports or client communication, the practical implication is straightforward: AI-generated content is becoming detectable by default across major platforms. Regulatory scrutiny, platform policy and client expectations around AI disclosure are all likely to tighten from here — worth reviewing your own practices before someone else’s watermark check does it for you.

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