Good morning, Dhaka. Here is everything a business, economy, and policy-focused professional needs to start the work week, in one place — sourced, dated, and checked against yesterday’s developments.

This is the long-form version of our morning brief. For the shorter version, please visit:  Today’s Morning Brief

IMF reviews bad loans and bank resolution measures on day two of its Dhaka mission

The IMF’s five-day fact-finding mission, in Dhaka to assess Bangladesh’s readiness for a $4-4.5 billion loan package, held day-long talks at Bangladesh Bank on Sunday (12 July). Central bank officials briefed the mission on plans to introduce a comprehensive non-performing loan (NPL) resolution framework by December, under which banks carrying bad-loan ratios above 10% will be required to prepare board-approved roadmaps and timelines for cutting defaults (Daily Star).

A separate IMF team met officials from Bangladesh Bank’s Bank Resolution Department and raised concerns over the pace of implementing bank resolution measures, including the five-bank merger that created Sammilito Islami Bank. The mission specifically asked whether depositors were able to withdraw their money from the merged entity. Central bank officials also disclosed that the government has decided to scrap Section 18(a) of the Bank Resolution Act, 2026 — a provision that would have allowed former owners to regain control of weak banks after a merger.

At the finance ministry, the mission was briefed on a new public-sector pay scale set to begin in phases from July, with officials saying the IMF had no objections and simply wanted implementation details. The mission chief’s scheduled meeting with the finance minister did not take place on Sunday, after the minister left to attend the funeral of former Speaker Barrister Jamiruddin Sircar; the meeting has been rescheduled for today, the mission’s third day of five, running through 16 July.

Government unveils Tk60,000cr production incentive package, tightens tech-driven tax enforcement

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told parliament on Sunday that Bangladesh Bank has announced a Tk60,000 crore incentive package aimed at boosting production and easing supply-side inflation — Tk41,000 crore drawn from commercial banks’ excess liquidity and the remaining Tk19,000 crore from the central bank’s own resources (TBS).

The minister said inflation, which climbed to 9.42% in May 2026 before easing to 9.16% in June, remains driven in part by supply constraints rather than demand alone. Alongside the stimulus, the government is expanding technology-driven tax enforcement: the National Board of Revenue is widening its e-return system for corporate taxpayers, deepening API-based data exchange with other government agencies, and strengthening risk-based audits using industry-specific benchmarks. Officials said strict legal action is being taken against those who deliberately evade taxes, even as the policy repo rate stays unchanged at 10% for the first half of FY2026-27 and the exchange rate regime remains market-based.

Government debt hits a record Tk22.06 lakh crore; BSEC imposes Tk1,497cr in stock market fines

The finance minister told parliament that the government’s outstanding debt has reached Tk22.06 lakh crore, including Tk9.59 lakh crore in external debt (TBS). The government repaid $4.65 billion in external loans during the recently concluded FY2025-26 — $3 billion in principal and $1.65 billion in interest — and has set a revenue-to-GDP target of 10.4% for the current fiscal year as part of a broader push to shift from a debt-driven to an investment-led economy, including wider use of sukuk and asset securitisation.

Separately, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has imposed fines totalling Tk1,497 crore on individuals and institutions linked to stock market irregularities under the previous government, the finance minister told parliament (Daily Star). Of that total, Tk428 crore relates to manipulation of Beximco shares. Former IFIC Bank chairman Salman F Rahman was fined Tk100 crore and declared persona non grata for life, barring him permanently from capital market activity; former vice chairman Ahmed Shayan Fazlur Rahman was fined Tk50 crore, and former BSEC chairman Prof Shibli Rubaiyat-ul-Islam received the same lifetime ban. The minister said investor confidence has returned, with international fund managers from Hong Kong, New York and London expressing renewed interest in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Textile export incentive raised to 5%; bKash-City Bank nano loans cross Tk10,000cr; new entrepreneurs get Tk10 lakh collateral-free loans

Bangladesh Bank has raised the cash incentive for exports of domestically-sourced textile products to 5% from 1.5% for FY2026-27, according to a circular issued Sunday, aiming to boost local value addition in the RMG sector (TBS). Exporters must submit documentary proof that yarn and fabric were sourced domestically to qualify.

Separately, digital nano-loan disbursement under the bKash-City Bank platform — Bangladesh’s first fully digital, collateral-free loan service — crossed Tk10,000 crore this month, with more than 35 lakh customers having borrowed through the service since its 2021 launch (TBS). Nearly half of total disbursement has reached areas outside Dhaka and Chattogram, and more than a quarter of borrowers are women. On formal finance access more broadly, new entrepreneurs in the cottage, micro and small enterprise sectors can now obtain collateral-free loans of up to Tk10 lakh at a maximum 7% interest rate under an expanded Bangladesh Bank refinancing scheme, while a newly launched Tk500 crore Startup Fund offers loans at 4% interest, the finance minister told parliament (TBS).

The read: The government handed out a Tk60,000cr production incentive and expanded nano-loans and startup funds even as the IMF, mid-visit, pressed on bad-loan resolution and bank mergers — and the finance minister disclosed a record Tk22.06 lakh crore debt load in the same week. Reform commitments to the Fund and stimulus commitments to voters are running on parallel tracks; whether they converge or collide will likely shape how the mission’s assessment reads when it wraps up on 16 July. Meanwhile, access to credit is genuinely widening at the bottom of the market — Tk10 lakh collateral-free loans, a 4% Startup Fund, Tk10,000cr in nano-loans — but with classified loans at 32.26% of the banking system, the world’s second-highest rate after war-torn Ukraine, the core lending problem still sits with large borrowers, not small ones.

Economy Watch

• USD/BDT: Interbank High/Low/WAR 123.0000/122.8500/122.9788; Spot rate (till 5pm) 123.25, 12 July 2026 (Bangladesh Bank)
• Yuan/BDT: Bid rates 18.11 and 18.13, 12 July 2026 (Bangladesh Bank)
• DSEX: Closed 12 July at 2:40pm at 5,849.21 points, up 45.15 points (+0.77%) (DSE)
• Gold (22K/bhori): Tk224,128 as of 8am today, down Tk54 from the previous day’s Tk224,182 (Goldr.org/BAJUS)
• Inflation (June 2026, point-to-point): 9.16%, down from 9.42% in May; no July figure released yet (BBS via Dhaka Tribune)
• Policy rate (BB repo): Held at 10.0% for H1 FY2026-27; SLF 11.5%, SDF 7.5% (TBS)
• GDP growth: FY26 actual 3.7%; FY27 ADB forecast cut to 4.5% from 4.7%; government still targets 6.5% (TBS)
• ADB inflation forecast (FY27): 8.8%, the highest forecast in South Asia (Dhaka Tribune)
• Classified (bad) loans: 32.26% of total banking-sector loans as of end-March, the world’s second-highest ratio after Ukraine’s 37.35% (TBS)
• Government outstanding debt: Tk22.06 lakh crore total, including Tk9.59 lakh crore external — a record high (TBS)
• Gross forex reserves (June, monthly): $37.58 billion gross; $32.93 billion on a BPM6 basis (Bangladesh Bank)
• Textile export cash incentive (FY27): Raised to 5% from 1.5% for domestically-sourced exports (TBS)
• Flood watch: Chattogram floods have killed over 1.12 lakh livestock and poultry, with losses topping Tk30 crore; Dhaka and Chattogram remain waterlogged after heavy rain, with some school classes and exams suspended (TBS)

Global Signal

US and Iran exchange heaviest strikes yet; Hormuz declared closed again, Gulf states hit. US forces struck more than 300 Iranian targets over three nights this week, and Iran responded overnight Sunday by striking US-linked sites across Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Kuwait — the sharpest escalation since the ceasefire took hold (TBS/Reuters). Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority again declared the Strait of Hormuz impassable “until stability and calm are restored,” a claim the US rejected, saying transit continues. An Indian crew member is missing after an attack on a container ship off Oman. President Trump said he considers the ceasefire “over,” though he does not expect a return to full-scale war. BD implication: a fourth consecutive week of Hormuz disruption keeps fuel-import and shipping-insurance costs elevated just as the IMF assesses Dhaka’s reform readiness.

Oil prices jump on renewed strikes. Brent climbed roughly 4% to near $79 a barrel on Monday, building on a 5.4% weekly gain, while WTI rose to around $74 a barrel. The IEA has warned that prolonged tension could delay the rebuilding of global oil inventories later this year. BD implication: another leg up in landed fuel costs adds to an import bill already strained by gradual taka depreciation.

Russia-Ukraine strikes continue ahead of Paris allied talks. Russia fired drones and missiles at Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions overnight Saturday-Sunday, killing four; Ukrainian strikes on Russian-held areas and inside Russia killed five, including one at an oil refinery in Samara region. More than 60 people have been killed in Kyiv and the surrounding region so far this month (Moscow Times/AFP). BD implication: continued pressure on global energy and shipping-insurance costs, compounding Hormuz-driven risk.

Gaza and Lebanon ceasefires hold on paper as Israel raises Gaza control to 70%. Israeli forces continued strikes in southern Lebanon over the weekend, killing two Lebanese army officers; Israel’s PM Netanyahu says the military has been directed to raise control over Gaza territory to 70%, up from 50%, with no further troop withdrawal in sight (NBC News). BD implication: limited direct trade exposure, but another source of sustained regional risk.

Wall Street — last close, Friday 10 July. Dow up 0.29% (+149.60) to 52,637.01; S&P 500 up 0.42% (+31.75) to 7,575.39; Nasdaq up 0.29% (+74.72) to 26,281.61, with SK Hynix’s record $26.5 billion US listing lifting chip sentiment even amid renewed Hormuz tension. BD implication: risk appetite held up into the weekend, a mild positive for export and outsourcing sentiment, though Monday’s session bears watching given the overnight escalation.

US Fed rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%; next FOMC 28-29 July. The rate has held since Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June, where the dot plot showed a majority of officials expecting a hike this year on renewed inflation risk. BD implication: an uncertain US rate path keeps dollar funding costs elevated for Bangladeshi borrowers.

Bitcoin is trading around $64,000-64,100, holding above the $63,000 level despite weekend risk-off sentiment tied to the Iran escalation.

AI This Week — Practical Intelligence, Never Hype

AI agents are already doing real work inside most companies, but almost none of them appear on an org chart — and that is the practical risk to manage this year, not “rogue AI.” A widely discussed piece making the rounds this week argues that in large organizations, AI tools are already sending emails, updating records and triggering workflows with no manager reviewing their output and no policy defining when a decision must be escalated to a human (Inc.). The practical takeaway for a Dhaka business: if your team already uses AI tools for customer replies, financial summaries, or vendor communication, the useful move this week is not to ban or fully trust them — it is to write down, in one page, exactly which decisions an AI tool can make unsupervised and which must go to a person first.

Separately, SpaceXAI’s newly launched Grok 4.5 model is priced at roughly a third of comparable top-tier models (Axios), a reminder that AI costs for routine business tasks are falling quickly — worth rechecking your vendor’s pricing before renewing any AI subscription this quarter.

ORAWEK Note

Good morning, Dhaka, and welcome to the new work week. Today’s brief has a lot of large numbers in it — Tk60,000cr in incentives, Tk22.06 lakh crore in debt, Tk1,497cr in fines, Tk10,000cr in nano-loans — and it’s easy to let them blur together. But the thread underneath them is simple: the government is trying to loosen credit at the bottom while the IMF, mid-visit, keeps asking hard questions about the top. Which of those wins out will matter more to most of us than any single headline number this week. Have a productive Monday.