ORAWEK
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FRIDAY, 22 MAY 2026 · WEEKEND EDITION
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Bangladesh Business & Economy — Pre-Budget Week
Bangladesh SOEs cost the treasury Tk 882b in a single year — World Bank calls the situation "unsustainable"
A World Bank study disseminated on Thursday found that non-financial state-owned enterprises recorded a combined adjusted loss of Tk 441 billion in FY2024, while total net fiscal transfers — subsidies plus development funding — climbed to Tk 882 billion, equivalent to 1.7% of GDP. The report, presented at a workshop in Dhaka under the SPFMS project, says deteriorating SOE finances have become "unsustainable" as Bangladesh simultaneously faces a falling revenue base and slower growth. Resources consumed by loss-making SOEs are diverted from healthcare, education and social protection. The timing is pointed: the FY27 budget is due June 11, and the government is already borrowing heavily from banks to cover a growing fiscal gap.
FY27 budget signals: AIT on industrial raw material imports to fall to 4%; economists demand a clear reform roadmap alongside spending numbers
The government is expected to reduce the Advance Income Tax (AIT) on primary and industrial raw material imports from the current 5% to 4% — and possibly to 3% for select inputs — when Finance Minister Amir Khosru presents the FY27 budget on June 11. PM Tarique Rahman reportedly approved the proposal in principle on May 14. The move also includes a new refund provision for businesses over-taxed at the import stage. In a separate pre-budget consultation on May 21, economists and business leaders urged the government to release a credible economic reform roadmap alongside the budget numbers, saying structural challenges — stalled investment, tight credit, energy crisis — cannot be addressed through spending alone. CPD's Debapriya Bhattacharya said a reform roadmap is "essential for credibility."
Govt bank borrowing crowds out private credit — and BSEC fines two listed firms Tk 1.5cr for false financial data
Private sector credit growth fell to an all-time low of 4.72% in March 2026, with outstanding private loans at Tk 23.35 lakh crore. The Bangladesh Economic Association warned that if the revenue shortfall persists, government borrowing from banks could reach Tk 1.1–1.3 lakh crore in FY27, deepening a "crowding out" effect that squeezes business lending space further. High lending rates of 15–16%, persistent gas shortages, and political uncertainty are already suppressing new investment. On enforcement: BSEC fined directors and top officials of Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries and Genex Infosys a total of Tk 1.5 crore for providing false data in audited financial reports, and ordered Aftab Automobiles to pay withheld dividends within 30 days or face additional Tk 1.55 crore in personal fines.
📌 SOE Signal — Tk 882 billion in fiscal transfers to SOEs is not a line item — it is a structural problem that crowds out everything else. The WB study lands at the worst possible moment: right before a budget where the government has almost no room to give. Watch whether June 11 proposes any SOE reform timeline or simply rolls over the subsidies again.
📌 Credit Signal — 4.72% private credit growth with 15–16% lending rates and an energy crisis is not a cyclical dip. It is an investment pause. The AIT cut will help importers at the margin, but it does not solve the crowding-out problem. Watch the FY27 borrowing ceiling in the budget speech.
Economy Watch
Data Point · Updated 22 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
~122.90 ৳
BB auction floor · Stable · 30-day range: 122.70–123.05 · BB daily dollar purchases continue; taka capped from appreciating
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.06 ৳
Mid-market · 30-day range: 17.99–18.10 · Stable for BD–China importers
DSEX Close — May 21
5,264.12 pts
▲ +41.74 (+0.80%) · Strong close Thursday · Recovered from Monday's 5,203 low · FAR Summit enforcement signals contributing to cautious optimism
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,38,121 ৳
▼ BAJUS rate effective 16 May · Down Tk 4,374 from previous rate · International gold ~$3,250/oz range as Iran deal hopes ease safe-haven demand
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
9.04%
▲ Up from 8.91% (Mar) · Food inflation: 8.24% · May print likely to reflect Hormuz-linked fuel cost pressure · ADB forecast: 9.0% FY26
Policy Rate (BB)
10.0%
BB repo rate · Unchanged · Business lobby pushing for lending cap relief · Next MPC review pending · Bank lending rates running 15–16%
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Partly reflects relaxed rescheduling rules · Sector CRAR: −2.9% (negative)
GDP Growth FY26
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Friday Morning
| Brent Crude — May 22 AM TradingEconomics / OilPrice.com · 22 May 2026 | ~$104.52/bbl ▲ +1.89% · Rebounded Friday after Thursday's Iran-driven volatility · Thu saw Brent spike above $107 as Iran's Supreme Leader ordered enriched uranium to stay in-country (complicating deal) · Hormuz "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" announced by Iran on Thu · Still +61% year-on-year · US SPR record withdrawal of ~10M barrels last week |
| WTI Crude — May 22 AM TradingEconomics · 22 May 2026 | ~$99–101/bbl · Hovering near $100 after Thursday rebound above $101 · US Secretary of State Rubio cited "some encouraging signs" with Iran — Pakistani mediators expected to travel to Tehran · Deal not imminent; uncertainty persists |
| Wall St — Thursday 21 May TradingEconomics / TheStreet · 21 May 2026 | Dow ▼ −0.5% · S&P 500 ▼ −0.5% · Nasdaq 100 ▼ −0.7% · US equities fell as Treasury yields rebounded and Nvidia's Q2 guidance failed to meet the upper end of analyst estimates · Intuit −15% on workforce cut plans (−17% headcount) · Walmart −2% on fuel cost warning · Goldman Sachs hit record high on SpaceX IPO mandate · 30-yr Treasury yield held near 5.19%; 10-yr above 4.6% |
| US Fed Rate & FOMC Minutes CNBC / Bloomberg · 20 May 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 meeting · Minutes released Wed showed a majority of FOMC officials anticipate rate hikes will be necessary if Iran war continues to aggravate inflation · Four dissenting votes at the meeting — most since 1992 · Kevin Warsh now chairs after Powell's final meeting · CME FedWatch: rate hike (not cut) increasingly priced for late 2026 / early 2027 |
| Bitcoin — May 22 AM Fortune / CoinDesk · 21–22 May 2026 | ~$77,200–77,500 · Opened Thu at $77,261; steady overnight · Down sharply from Oct 2025 ATH of ~$126,000 · Treasury yield pressure and Iran uncertainty a drag · Fear & Greed: neutral-to-fear zone |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran War Reuters / Al Jazeera · 21–22 May 2026 | Most complex day in weeks — Iran announced "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" with a "controlled maritime zone," which markets read as a hardening posture. Simultaneously, US SecState Rubio says deal signs are "encouraging." Washington's latest proposal is under review in Tehran. No ceasefire yet. BD implication: Brent above $100 means sustained LNG import cost pressure — key for the June inflation print and Biman fuel costs. Full Hormuz reopening still months away at minimum. |
| US–China Tariff / BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka / CNBC · May 2026 | US–China tariffs remain ~45% · BD–US: 19% base tariff rate still in effect · Section 122 appeal live · BD still #2 US apparel supplier but capturing minimal China-diversion share; Vietnam and Cambodia gaining · BD–US trade talks ongoing · No breakthrough this week |
| SpaceX & OpenAI IPO / Goldman Sachs CNBC / Bloomberg · 20–21 May 2026 | SpaceX filed its public S-1 on May 20 — $18.67B in 2025 revenue (post-xAI merger); target valuation $1.75T–$2T; June 12 Nasdaq debut targeted. OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing within days; Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley advising; September 2026 listing targeted at $1T+ valuation. Goldman hit record high on the mandate news. BD relevance: cloud AI costs may decline as hyperscalers commit $725B capex in 2026. |
| Asian Markets / India–BD TradingEconomics · 22 May AM | Asian markets opening Friday cautiously on mixed Wall St close and ongoing oil volatility · India supplying diesel via pipeline amid BD LNG shortage · BD–India trade talks continue · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy overruns |
| Israel–Lebanon / Middle East Reuters · 20–21 May 2026 | Netanyahu coalition under pressure from ultra-Orthodox draft dispute; early elections increasingly discussed · UAE infrastructure recovery ongoing · Conflict 12th+ week with no ceasefire timeline · G7 finance ministers: recovery requires "lasting end to conflict" |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
OpenAI is preparing to file IPO paperwork this week — and that is directly relevant to every Bangladeshi professional who pays for or considers paying for AI tools. On May 20, SpaceX filed its S-1 publicly. Within the same 24 hours, CNBC confirmed OpenAI is moving toward a September 2026 listing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising, targeting a valuation above $1 trillion. Anthropic is also preparing for a listing as early as October. Why does this matter practically in Dhaka? When AI companies go public, they face pressure to grow revenue faster — which typically means deeper enterprise sales, more aggressive Bangladesh-region pricing, and wider product availability. OpenAI's ChatGPT Enterprise and Microsoft Copilot integrations are already being bundled into corporate 365 plans at no extra cost for many subscribers. The concrete action this weekend: if your company uses Microsoft 365, ask your IT team whether Copilot features (document drafting in Word, data analysis in Excel, meeting summaries in Teams) are activated on your current license. Many enterprise plans already include them — most Dhaka-based firms are not yet using them.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Tk 882 billion to SOEs in one year. That is not a subsidy — it is a fiscal leak the size of a small country's entire budget. And we are heading into a June budget where the government will have to borrow more, tax more, and somehow still find room to invest in growth. The harder truth I keep sitting with this Friday morning is this: every time we talk about the budget, we talk about what the government will spend. We almost never talk about what it will stop spending. The SOE number is what happens when no one answers that second question. A budget that finally draws a line — this SOE restructures, this one closes, this one is sold — would be more credible than any revenue target the NBR has set in ten years.
— Founder · Friday morning · Dhaka