ORAWEK Digest - Archives
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 26 JUNE 2026 · WEEKEND EDITION · LET'S GET BACK TO CREATE IMPACT
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekend Edition
Free forever
Top Story
Budget Critics · PM-China 13 Deals · Handa $220M · ADP 48.23% Low · Distressed Asset Law · LDC Deferral Push
Farashuddin calls FY27 budget "too small, reforms too slow" — Khosru acknowledges Tk 1.25 lakh crore debt repayment as biggest fiscal challenge
Former Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr. Mohammed Farashuddin publicly criticised the FY2026-27 budget as too small and insufficiently reform-oriented, urging a complete overhaul of the taxation framework and the breaking of the "politician-bureaucrat nexus" that he argues is strangling revenue mobilisation. In a separate seminar organised by the Bangladesh Economic Association on 25 June, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury acknowledged that Bangladesh's annual debt repayment now stands at around Tk 1.25 lakh crore — calling it the government's single largest fiscal challenge. "The fiscal space has shrunk significantly, yet we still have to repay this money," he said. NCP leader Akhter Hossen added political weight to the critique, claiming that the country's debt burden rose by Tk 1 lakh crore in the first four months of the new BNP government. CPD echoed concerns about tax justice, calling for a more progressive fiscal approach.
PM Tarique secures 13 deals in Beijing; Handa to invest $220M in Keraniganj factory — China visit produces FDI, Teesta, and infrastructure wins
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman held bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on 25 June, securing 13 cooperation agreements spanning trade, investment, infrastructure, and people-to-people exchanges. Addressing an "Invest Bangladesh" forum jointly organised with BIDA and CCPIT — attended by over 80 senior Chinese executives — the PM promised investment licences within 15 days and highlighted zones at Anwara and Mongla. The headline FDI commitment: Chinese apparel giant Handa Group agreed to invest $220 million in a factory at the Keraniganj Economic Zone. Both sides also reached consensus on advancing the long-discussed Teesta River Comprehensive Management Plan. Bangladesh is seeking over $9 billion in project financing from China, AIIB, and NDB, including Mongla Port modernisation and digital connectivity projects. The PM is scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping on Friday.
ADP implementation hits 48.23% in July–May FY26 — worst in five years; spending Tk 6,908 crore below last year's pace
Bangladesh's Annual Development Programme implementation rate dropped to 48.23% in the July–May period of FY2025-26, the lowest in five years, according to IMED data released on 25 June. Total ADP spending in July–May stood at approximately Tk 1.08 lakh crore, against a revised allocation of about Tk 2.24 lakh crore. For comparison, the same period in FY2024-25 saw 57.54% implementation; in FY2022-23 it was 61.73%. The Finance Minister had earlier directed ministries to accelerate project spending, but energy shortages, project-director vacancies inherited from the political transition, and contractor delays continue to hold back execution. Economists warn the gap undermines the government's infrastructure ambitions under FY27's larger Tk 3 lakh crore ADP.
Draft "Distressed Asset Management Act 2026" published — private firms to buy bad loans, take over companies via new DAMC framework
The Financial Institutions Division gazetted the draft Distressed Asset Management Act, 2026 on 25 June for public feedback. The law creates an independent regulator — the Distressed Asset Management Unit (DAMU) — under Bangladesh Bank, which will license private Distressed Asset Management Companies (DAMCs) authorised to purchase bad loans directly from banks and NBFIs. DAMCs can establish trusts to ring-fence assets and raise funds from domestic and foreign investors (but not from banks). Separate Loan Servicer Companies (LSCs) will handle debt restructuring and recovery. As of December 2025, distressed loans stood at Tk 10.91 lakh crore — roughly 60% of all outstanding bank loans. Habitual defaulters and their associates are barred from owning or operating any entity under the Act. Violations carry fines up to Tk 1 crore and up to seven years imprisonment.
Bangladesh seeks diplomatic support for LDC graduation deferral — CDP favours shorter extension, final UNGA vote expected September 2026
The Financial Express reported on 25 June that Bangladesh is actively seeking diplomatic support from India, China, the EU and other partners to secure a delay in its LDC graduation, currently scheduled for 24 November 2026. The government applied in February for a three-year extension to 2029, citing successive crises. The UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) has responded positively but is expected to recommend a shorter extension of one to two years, conditional on Bangladesh submitting a credible reform action plan covering 25 sectors including banking, revenue, and trade. The final decision rests with the UN General Assembly, expected in September. PM Tarique's Beijing visit — where an ART obligation prohibits signing a full FTA with China — is also set against this LDC backdrop: loss of LDC trade preferences in 2029 (or sooner if extension is denied) is the central trade-policy anxiety of the BNP government's first term.
Business leaders push back on 0.2% AIT on retail supplies — oppose new tax measure in FY27 budget
Business associations have formally opposed the 0.2% Advance Income Tax (AIT) on retail supplies included in the FY2026-27 budget, arguing it will add cost pressures on already-squeezed supply chains and disproportionately hurt small traders. The BSS also reported progress on government efforts to bring more transactions into the formal economy, but industry leaders say the new levy risks pushing informal trade further underground rather than broadening the tax net. The FY27 budget's revenue-to-GDP target of 10.2% — up from Bangladesh's current sub-7% ratio — is widely seen as requiring structural, not merely transactional, reforms to achieve.
📌 The Budget Credibility Gap — Thursday's cluster of news tells one unified story: there is a widening distance between what the FY27 budget promises and what the structural reality allows. Farashuddin's "too small" critique and Khosru's own admission — Tk 1.25 lakh crore going to debt repayment — mean nearly 13% of the entire budget is gone before the first school is built. ADP at 48.23% in 11 months is the execution problem that no budget size can fix on its own. The Distressed Asset Management Act is the right law at the right time — private capital purchasing bad loans is far better than a state-run bad bank — but the real test is whether DAMCs can attract credible investors when the legal and courts infrastructure remains weak.
📌 China Visit Signal — PM Tarique's 13 deals in Beijing are a genuine diplomatic win, and Handa's $220M commitment is the largest single Chinese FDI announcement in recent memory. But every BD professional should understand the ART constraint: the 19% US tariff framework prohibits Bangladesh from signing a full FTA with China — the very deal Chinese officials proposed. The PM is threading a needle: attract Chinese capital without triggering US penalties. That rope gets thinner as the IMF's July mission approaches. How Dhaka navigates the US-China trade tension in the next 30 days will define its policy credibility more than any single investment deal.
Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 26 June 2026, 8 AM
USD / BDT — BB Spot Rate
123.11 ৳
FX Market Spot Rate · 25 Jun, Op. till 5 PM · Interbank High/Low: 122.7500 · Managed float
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
18.016 ৳
Bid: 18.0133 · Ask: 18.0186 · 25 Jun · PM's Beijing visit finalised 13 deals; CNY settlement talks in focus
DSEX — Close Thu 25 Jun
5,652.82 pts
▲ +35.99 pts (+0.64%) — 25 Jun · Third consecutive session higher · Gradual recovery continues
Gold 22K / Bhori
223,074 ৳
BAJUS rate · 25 Jun · ~Tk 19,148/gram · Intl gold ~$3,250/oz (easing on Hormuz reopening progress)
Inflation Rate (May '26)
9.42%
▲ Up from 9.04% in Apr · Food: 9.06% · Non-food: 9.71% · BBS released 7 Jun · FY27 target: 7.5%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Jun 4 hold · Bank lending 15–16% · Economists urge cut; BB holds firm on inflation · Next MPS Jul–Dec 2026
Bad Loans (NPL) Mar '26
32.6%
▲ Up from 30.60% (Dec '25) · S. Asia avg: 7.9% · System capital ratio: -2.6% (Dec '25) · WB confirmed 24 Jun
GDP Growth FY26 (Provisional)
4.14%
BBS provisional · Up from 3.49% FY25 · Industry: 2.86% (decade low) · GDP: $501B · FY27 target: 6.5%
Forex Reserves (Gross) May '26
34,547.8 $M
Latest monthly data (May '26) · Jun 24 gross: $36,103.89M crossed $36B for first time since Oct 2022
IMF BPM6 Reserves (May '26)
29,844.8 $M
Monthly figure · Jun 24 BPM6 real-time: $31,552.67M · Recovery from Aug '24 low of $25.92B
Food Inflation (May '26)
9.06%
▲ Up from 8.39% in Apr · 4 consecutive months rising · FY27 budget target: 7.5%
ADB Inflation FY26 Forecast
9.0%
ADB ADO Apr 2026 · ADB GDP FY26: 4.0% · WB GDP FY26: 3.9% · IMF GDP FY26: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Friday Morning, 26 June 2026
| Brent Crude — 25 Jun TradingEconomics · CNBC · 25 Jun 2026 | ~$74.70/bbl ▼ on track for 3rd straight weekly drop · WTI: ~$70.70/bbl (briefly below $70 earlier Thursday). Oil near pre-war lows despite a vessel being struck near Oman (see Hormuz below). Saudi tankers heading to Ras Tanura terminal for first time since March. BD implication: every sustained $5 drop reduces BPC subsidy pressure. Goldman Sachs projects Brent averaging $56/bbl in 2026 assuming full Hormuz reopening and 2 mb/d oversupply. |
| Strait of Hormuz — IMO Pauses Evacuation NBC News · CBS News · Bloomberg · 25 Jun 2026 | The IMO paused its Hormuz ship-evacuation plan on 25 June after an IRGC projectile struck a Singapore-flagged vessel (Ever Lovely) near Oman, damaging its bridge but causing no casualties. Iran's IRGC rejected Oman-backed southern transit corridors as "unacceptable and highly dangerous" — insisting vessels use northern Iran-supervised routes. Several oil tankers turned back. Secretary of State Rubio, touring Gulf states, rejected Iran's push for transit fees. Iran and Oman continue diplomatic talks. BD implication: war-risk insurance premiums will remain elevated; LNG spot pricing relief remains uncertain until corridor durability is confirmed. Hapag-Lloyd confirmed all its vessels have exited the Gulf. |
| Wall St — Close Thu 25 Jun Google Finance · NYSE · 25 Jun 2026 | Dow ▲ +0.14% (+71.72) to 51,920.62 · S&P 500 ▼ -0.01% (-0.73) to 7,357.49 · Nasdaq ▼ -0.46% (-118.03) to 25,358.60. Essentially flat: energy and industrials lifted the Dow; tech weighed on Nasdaq for a second straight session. BD implication: sluggish Nasdaq signals softer IT outsourcing client confidence; sustained USD strength keeps BDT managed-float pressure elevated. |
| US Fed Rate — Jun 17 Decision Federal Reserve · 17 Jun 2026 | 3.50–3.75% — Held. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting. Hawkish dot-plot: 9 of 18 officials project at least one rate hike in 2026; forward guidance removed entirely. PCE forecast raised to 3.6% for 2026. BD implication: potential 2026 hike sustains structural dollar strength; BDT managed-float pressure persists and import costs remain elevated. |
| Israel–Lebanon: 5th Round Talks Extended Times of Israel · State Dept · 25–26 Jun 2026 | The 5th round of Israel-Lebanon peace talks in Washington was extended into a 4th day (Friday) after no framework agreement was reached on 25 June. Both sides made progress on partial IDF withdrawal to "pilot zones" but remain deadlocked on the scope of Israeli pullback from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has rejected all ceasefire terms that do not start with full Israeli withdrawal. The US-Iran interim deal (15 June) included a Lebanon ceasefire commitment, but Israel says its forces remain in Lebanon. BD implication: Middle East labour market uncertainty persists; Finance Minister flagged remittance risk if instability deepens. |
| US–China & BD–US Tariff Dhaka Tribune · Reuters · Jun 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% (unchanged) · BD–US: 19% base tariff under ART (Feb 2026) — ART prohibits BD from signing trade deals with non-market economies including China. PM's Beijing visit must navigate this constraint carefully. USTR proposed additional 10% forced-labour tariff on BD exports (4 Jun). LDC graduation November 2026 — one-to-two-year deferral possible pending UNGA vote in September. |
| India–Bangladesh Relations TBS News · 25 Jun 2026 | India's new envoy to Dhaka, Dinesh Trivedi, was granted Cabinet Minister status on 25 June — a symbolic elevation of bilateral ties. India's trade deficit with BD stood at $7.86B in FY25, the highest with any single partner. India continues diesel pipeline supply amid BD's LNG shortage. New Indian PM Shri has signalled a positive reset; Trivedi said Dhaka and Delhi "can emerge as the strongest democracy and world power together." BD implication: a stabilised India-BD relationship underpins energy security and trade continuity. |
| US CPI & Inflation BLS · Jun 2026 | US CPI inflation 4.20% in May 2026 (up from 3.80% in Apr) · Core CPI: 2.9% · Energy index +23.5% YoY; gasoline +40.5%. Next CPI release: 14 July 2026. BD implication: elevated US inflation supports Fed hawkishness, sustaining USD strength and BDT pressure. BD exporters face margin compression. |
| Bitcoin — 25 Jun Yahoo Finance · 25 Jun 2026 | ~$62,000–63,000 range · Fear & Greed: Extreme Fear · Down roughly 40% YoY from ~$106K in June 2025 · BTC diverging from equity markets, tracking hawkish Fed risk and geopolitical overhang. Market cap ~$1.3T. Not directly relevant to most BD professionals but crypto-adjacent fintech exposure warrants monitoring. |
| Saudi Arabia / OPEC+ OilPrice.com · Jun 2026 | Saudi Aramco cut Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai (from $19.50 in May) — first cut from wartime highs. Seven OPEC+ countries raising output by 188,000 bpd; UAE has quit OPEC+, weakening cartel cohesion. Iraq threatening to leave unless quota is raised. BD implication: lower Saudi OSPs marginally ease BPC import costs; Hormuz re-opening trajectory — not OPEC — is now the dominant price driver. |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA Oil Outlook TradingEconomics · IEA · Jun 2026 | Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent averaging $56/bbl in 2026 driven by 2.0 mb/d oversupply with prices bottoming mid-2026. IEA estimates UAE is already exporting at 85% of pre-war levels. Oil ~40% below wartime peak. BD implication: if the Hormuz opening holds despite Thursday's incident, structural oversupply means sustained energy cost relief through FY27 — significant for BPC subsidies and the import bill. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
Claude is now beating ChatGPT among paying business users — and its paid consumer base grew 75% since January 2026. Here is what that data means for Bangladeshi AI adopters. New credit card transaction data from Indagari (28 million US consumers) shows Claude's paying users up 75% since January 2026, with growth continuing month over month. More strikingly, the Ramp AI Index (tracking 50,000+ US businesses) reported for the first time ever that more American businesses pay for Claude (34.4%) than ChatGPT (32.3%) as of April 2026. On DataCamp — a platform with 20 million learners — "Claude" is now the most searched term, beating even "AI" itself. The practical angle for Bangladeshi professionals: this is not just a US story. Claude's growth is driven by Claude Code (AI-assisted coding), quality of reasoning responses, and its public refusal to support mass surveillance — which drove a trust-based consumer surge in March. For BD's IT sector and freelancers: the platform your global clients are paying for is shifting. If your skills or tools are ChatGPT-only, this is the week to explore Claude and compare. The enterprise where you want to pitch your work is increasingly on Anthropic's platform.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Friday morning, and the week ends on a note that is both hopeful and unresolved. PM Tarique came back from Beijing with 13 deals and a $220 million factory commitment — not bad for four days of state diplomacy. But the budget critique from Farashuddin, the Khosru admission on Tk 1.25 lakh crore debt servicing, and the ADP at 48.23% all point to the same problem: we are very good at making announcements and very slow at execution. The Distressed Asset Management Act being gazetted is genuinely encouraging — it is the right architecture for a bad loan market. Whether it attracts real capital depends on the courts and governance, not the law text. On Hormuz: one struck vessel on Thursday should not erase the broader directional trend — oil is down 40% from wartime highs, and the week's direction is still toward reopening. But it is a reminder that "normalisation" is not the same as "normal." Dhaka's professionals head into the weekend with more signal than usual. Use it.
— Founder · Friday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 25 JUNE 2026 · WEEKDAY EDITION · LET'S GET BACK TO CREATE IMPACT
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekday Edition
Free forever
Top Story
3R Strategy · $78B Debt · $36B Reserves · WB $450M Banking · Industry Decade-Low · Hormuz Reopens
Finance Minister unveils 3R Strategy targeting 8.5% GDP growth by FY31 — external debt confirmed at $78.22B with rising repayment burden
Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told parliament on 24 June that the government is implementing a "Three-R Strategy" — Recovery & Stabilisation, Restoration, and Reconstruction for Acceleration — to revive the economy. Under the plan, real GDP growth is targeted at 8.5% by FY2030-31, FDI at 2.7% of GDP, and total investment at 40% of GDP. The government intends to pursue FTAs, PTAs and EPAs with partner countries and is expanding bonded warehouse facilities for export-oriented industries. In a separate parliament reply, Khosru disclosed Bangladesh's total outstanding external debt stood at $78.22 billion as of March 2026, of which 61.97% is concessional. He acknowledged rising principal and interest repayment obligations in coming years and said a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy update and Debt Sustainability Analysis are underway.
Gross forex reserves cross $36B after 44 months — BB confirms $36.10B on June 24; BPM6 reserves at $31.55B
Bangladesh Bank confirmed on 24 June that the country's gross foreign exchange reserves reached $36,103.89 million ($36.10 billion) — crossing the $36 billion mark for the first time since October 2022. Under the IMF's BPM6 method, reserves stood at $31,552.67 million ($31.55 billion). The reserves had fallen to a low of $25.92 billion during the political transition in August 2024. The recovery has been driven by record remittance inflows: $34.99 billion received through banking channels from July to 23 June FY26, up 18.39% YoY. The ADB's $1 billion budget support loan in June also contributed to the surge.
World Bank approves $450M to strengthen Bangladesh's banking sector — NPL at 32.6%, capital ratio negative
The World Bank Board approved $450 million in financing on 24 June under the Financial Sector Support Project II to help Bangladesh rebuild its battered banking sector. The funds will bolster the deposit protection system, build Bangladesh Bank's supervisory capacity, support bank resolution, and reform state-owned banks. The WB noted NPL ratio stood at 32.6% as of March 2026 — nearly four times South Asia's average of 7.9% — and the system-wide capital-to-risk-weighted-assets ratio was a negative 2.6% as of December 2025. Separately, Finance Minister Khosru disclosed Bangladesh Bank had provided Tk 75,903 crore in emergency liquidity assistance to banks up to June 6, led by First Security Islami Bank (Tk 15,810 crore), EXIM Bank (Tk 12,010 crore), and Social Islami Bank (Tk 10,841 crore).
Industrial growth hits decade low at 2.86% in FY26 — govt targets 7% in FY27, economists call it "highly ambitious"
Bangladesh's industrial sector grew just 2.86% in FY2025-26, its slowest pace in a decade, despite overall GDP expanding 4.14%, according to provisional BBS data. Industry accounts for about 37% of GDP. Output from large, medium, small, and cottage industries all declined. Businesses cited energy shortages, subdued demand, high inflation, and tight credit. The government has projected industrial growth of 7% in FY27, rising to 8% in FY29. Economists at PRI and SANEM warn the target is "highly ambitious" without lower inflation, exchange-rate stability, reliable energy, and a meaningful recovery in private and foreign investment.
Second Padma Bridge feasibility study proposed at Tk 45 crore — govt also proposes Anwara-Mongla connectivity upgrade
Finance Minister Khosru informed parliament that the government has proposed Tk 45 crore for a feasibility study for a second Padma Bridge. The proposal is part of the broader infrastructure push under the 3R Strategy. Meanwhile, BIDA hosted an investment seminar in Beijing on 24 June to attract Chinese FDI to Bangladesh, with a focus on electronics, semiconductors, EV batteries, and IT-enabled services in the wake of PM Tarique Rahman's ongoing China visit.
Made-in-Bangladesh customised wigs heading to Japan & Singapore — niche export diversification in action
Bangladeshi manufacturer ARTnature is exporting customised wigs to Japan and Singapore, demonstrating the country's growing capacity to compete in niche, high-value personal care manufacturing. The company, leveraging skilled labour and competitive production costs, is tapping premium Asian markets where human-hair wig demand is growing. Industry observers note this as a model for export diversification beyond RMG — exactly what the 3R Strategy's export-broadening pillar calls for.
📌 The 3R Wager — Finance Minister Khosru's parliament session on 24 June delivered a cluster of interconnected signals. The 3R Strategy is now formally articulated — R1 (stabilise), R2 (restore), R3 (accelerate to 8.5%). But the numbers in the same session tell a harder story: $78.22B in external debt, Tk 75,903cr in emergency bank liquidity, NPL at 32.6%. The World Bank's $450M banking package is the right medicine, but the diagnosis is severe. The forex reserve milestone — $36.10B gross — is genuine good news and the first bright spot in 44 months. Watch whether the WB $450M comes with conditionalities that align with or conflict with the IMF's pending July mission.
📌 Industrial Alarm — 2.86% industrial growth is the number that should sober every optimist reading the 3R Strategy. Industry is Bangladesh's job-creation engine. When it grows at a decade-low while the government targets 7% next year — that gap is not just ambitious, it is a policy stress-test. Energy reliability and banking sector health are the two choke-points. Without cheap credit and reliable gas/power, the 3R trajectory stays aspirational. The IMF mid-July mission will be the real verdict on whether the structural fixes are credible enough for a $4B programme.
Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 25 June 2026, 8 AM
USD / BDT — BB Spot Rate
122.99 ৳
FX Market Spot Rate · 24 Jun, Op. till 5 PM · Interbank: High/Low 122.7500 · Managed float
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
18.064 ৳
Bid: 18.064 · Ask: 18.065 · 24 Jun · PM's Beijing visit ongoing — local currency settlement talks in focus
DSEX — Close Wed 24 Jun
5,616.83 pts
▲ +11.56 pts (+0.21%) — 24 Jun · Extends previous session's 51-point rebound · Gradual recovery
Gold 22K / Bhori
225,290 ৳
BAJUS rate · 24 Jun · ~Tk 19,315/gram · Intl gold ~$3,280/oz (fell ~4% on Hormuz relief)
Inflation Rate (May '26)
9.42%
▲ Up from 9.04% in Apr · Food: 9.06% · Non-food: 9.71% · BBS released 7 Jun · FY27 target: 7.5%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Jun 4 hold unanimous · Bank lending 15–16% · Next MPS Jul–Dec 2026 expected post-budget
Bad Loans (NPL) Mar '26
32.6%
▲ Up from 30.60% (Dec '25) · South Asia avg: 7.9% · System capital ratio: -2.6% · WB confirmed 24 Jun
GDP Growth FY26 (Provisional)
4.14%
BBS provisional · Up from 3.49% in FY25 · Industry: 2.86% (decade low) · GDP: $501B · FY27 target: 6.5%
Food Inflation (May '26)
9.06%
▲ Up from 8.39% in Apr · 4 consecutive months rising · FY27 budget target: 7.5%
ADB Inflation FY26 Forecast
9.0%
ADB ADO Apr 2026 · ADB GDP FY26: 4.0% · WB GDP FY26: 3.9% · IMF GDP FY26: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Thursday Morning, 25 June 2026
| Brent Crude — 24 Jun OilPrice.com · CNBC · 24 Jun 2026 | ~$74.73/bbl ▼ -3.05% on 24 Jun · WTI: ~$71.02/bbl. Brent hit its lowest level since before the Feb 28 US-Israel-Iran war, as Oman opened temporary toll-free Hormuz shipping corridors and traffic resumed. Oil down ~40% from wartime peak. BD implication: every $5 sustained drop reduces BPC subsidy pressure. Watch for durability — current US-Iran deal is 60-day framework only. Sustained sub-$70 WTI would meaningfully ease BD's energy import bill. |
| Strait of Hormuz: Oman Opens Toll-Free Corridors Arab News · Reuters · 24 Jun 2026 | Oman on 24 June opened two temporary shipping routes — north and south of existing lanes — toll-free, in coordination with the IMO. The Strait was heavily disrupted since 28 February (US-Israel strikes on Iran). Under the US-Iran interim agreement, commercial vessels transit without charge for 60 days; longer-term arrangements are under negotiation. Vessels move in phased groups under IMO guidance. BD implication: LNG spot prices expected to ease from Q3 FY27. BD's Tk 1,200cr+/month LNG import cost may moderate, but war-risk insurance premiums persist until corridor durability is confirmed. |
| Wall St — Close Wed 24 Jun Google Finance · NYSE · 24 Jun 2026 | Dow ▲ +0.35% (+182.06) to 51,848.90 · S&P 500 ▼ -0.10% (-7.24) to 7,358.22 · Nasdaq ▼ -0.43% (-110.41) to 25,476.64. Mixed session: Dow lifted by energy and industrials; Nasdaq dragged by continued tech-sector valuation concerns and hawkish Fed overhang. BD implication: weak Nasdaq signals dampened IT outsourcing client confidence; sustained USD strength maintains pressure on BDT managed float. |
| US Fed Rate — Jun 17 Decision Federal Reserve · 17 Jun 2026 | 3.50–3.75% — Held. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC. Hawkish shift: dot plot shows fed funds at 3.8% by year-end; 9 of 18 officials project at least one hike in 2026. PCE forecast raised to 3.6% for 2026. Forward guidance language removed entirely. BD implication: potential 2026 rate hike sustains structural dollar strength; BDT managed-float pressure persists and import costs remain elevated. |
| Bitcoin — 24 Jun Yahoo Finance · Fortune · 24 Jun 2026 | ~$62,651 at 9 AM ET on 24 Jun · ▼ Down ~$43,500 YoY from ~$106K Jun 2025 · BTC diverging from traditional markets — trading hawkish Fed risk and oil price collapse signals. Fear & Greed: Extreme Fear. Market cap ~$1.33T. Not relevant to most BD professionals, but crypto-adjacent fintech exposure warrants monitoring. |
| Israel–Lebanon: 5th Round Talks Jun 23–25 Wikipedia · CBS News · State Dept · 24 Jun 2026 | The 5th round of Israel-Lebanon peace talks is ongoing in Washington DC (June 23–25), including both political and military portions. On 19 June, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a new ceasefire brokered by the US, Qatar, and Iran. However, Israel's Defence Minister confirmed military operations continue and IDF will not withdraw from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has rejected several ceasefire terms. BD implication: Middle East labour markets for Bangladeshi workers remain uncertain; Finance Minister flagged this risk explicitly in parliament. Sustained instability = remittance pressure. |
| US–China & BD–US Tariff Dhaka Tribune · Reuters · Jun 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% (unchanged) · BD–US: 19% base tariff under ART (Feb 2026) — ART prohibits BD from signing trade deals with non-market economies including China. FY27 budget drafted under ART constraints. USTR proposed additional 10% forced-labour tariff on BD exports (4 Jun). LDC graduation November 2026 — three-year deferral still pending UN approval. PM's China visit must navigate ART constraints carefully. |
| India–Bangladesh Relations Dhaka Tribune · Jun 2026 | India's trade deficit with BD: $7.86B in FY25 — highest with any single country. India is BD's 2nd-largest trading partner (since Feb 2026). India continues diesel pipeline supply amid BD LNG shortage. China remains #1 at 21.21% of BD's total trade. ART obligation means BD cannot sign bilateral deal with China without risking 19% US tariff concession — the central tension in PM Rahman's ongoing Beijing visit. |
| US CPI & Inflation BLS · Jun 2026 | US CPI inflation 4.20% in May 2026 (up from 3.80% in Apr) · Core CPI: 2.9% · Energy index +23.5% YoY; gasoline +40.5%. Next CPI release: 14 July 2026. BD implication: elevated US inflation supports Fed hawkishness, sustaining USD strength and BDT pressure. BD exporters face margin compression from both currency and weak demand. |
| Saudi Arabia / OPEC+ OilPrice.com · Jun 2026 | Saudi Aramco cut June Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai (from $19.50 in May) — first cut from wartime record highs. Seven OPEC+ countries raising output by 188,000 bpd in June; third consecutive monthly increase. UAE quit OPEC+ last week, weakening cartel cohesion. BD implication: lower Saudi OSPs marginally reduce BPC import costs; Hormuz re-opening now the dominant price driver. |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA Oil Outlook TradingEconomics · IEA · Jun 2026 | Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent averaging $56/bbl in 2026 due to 2.0 mb/d oversupply with prices bottoming mid-2026. IEA estimates UAE is already exporting oil at 85% of pre-war levels. Oil prices have collapsed ~40% from wartime peak. BD implication: if the Hormuz opening holds, structural oversupply (GS forecast) means sustained energy cost relief — good for BPC subsidies and BD import bill through FY27. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
New data says AI is NOT killing engineering jobs — engineers now make up 55% of all new tech hires. Here's what Dhaka's tech community should take from this. A major study by venture firm SignalFire, tracking millions of employees across 80M+ companies, found that engineering was the most resilient job function in 2025. While overall hiring at major tech companies dropped 25% vs 2019 levels, engineering roles fell only 11%. Engineers now comprise 55% of all new hires at Tech Majors (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft etc.), up from 46% in 2019. At early-stage startups, engineering hiring is actually 7% above 2019 levels. The practical angle for Bangladeshi professionals: the narrative that "AI will replace programmers" is not playing out in actual hiring data. What IS happening — AI-fluent engineers are commanding a premium and Forward Deployed Engineers (FDEs) who can bridge AI tools and enterprise clients are among the fastest-growing roles. For BD's growing IT sector and outsourcing talent pool: the signal is clear. Don't avoid coding — learn to code with AI. The engineers who understand AI tools deeply are getting hired faster, not slower.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Wednesday in parliament gave us four numbers that sit together uncomfortably: $78.22B in external debt, $36.10B in gross reserves, 32.6% NPL, and Tk 75,903 crore in emergency bank liquidity. Read individually, each can be explained away. Read together, they describe a system that is slowly stabilising but still deeply fragile. The reserve milestone is real — 44 months is a long time to be below $36B, and the remittance story driving that recovery deserves genuine credit. But the $78B debt number and the banking sector's negative capital ratio mean we are celebrating in a burning building where the sprinklers just switched on. The 3R Strategy is the right vision. The World Bank's $450M is the right signal. What matters now is execution speed — and whether the IMF's mid-July mission results in a programme or another delay. That outcome will define the next six months more than any single data point.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 24 JUNE 2026 · WEEKDAY EDITION · LET'S GET BACK TO CREATE IMPACT
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekday Edition
Free forever
Top Story
Foreign Debt Squeeze · IMF VAT Conditions · PM China Visit · DSEX Rebounds · Waterway Fees Hiked
Foreign loan disbursements fall $1B in FY26 while debt servicing hits record $4.13B — net inflow collapses to just $445M
Bangladesh's foreign loan disbursements dropped 18.3% to $4.57 billion during July-May FY26, down from $5.48 billion in the same period of FY25, according to ERD data released on 23 June. Commitments from development partners also fell 23% to $4.22 billion. Meanwhile, debt repayments surged to a record $4.13 billion in the first 11 months — up from $3.78 billion a year earlier. The result: net foreign loan inflow collapsed to just $445 million, one-fourth of the $1.82 billion recorded in the same period last year. "A situation has emerged where foreign loan disbursements and repayments have become almost equal," said Dr Mustafa K Mujeri of InM. Former BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur warned the country is now "spending to survive" rather than investing for growth.
IMF ties new loan package to uniform 15% VAT, turnover tax, and banking reforms — deal could be signed by December
The IMF has demanded a single 15% VAT rate and a turnover tax as conditions for a new loan package, alongside banking sector reforms including NPL reduction, weak bank mergers, and an end to government interference in bank management. Bangladesh supports a unified VAT system but prefers a rate of 10–12% and opposes an immediate turnover tax. The government has agreed to remove a disputed clause in the Bank Resolution Act regarding ownership return of merged banks to satisfy the IMF. An IMF delegation is due in mid-July; final discussions expected at the October Annual Meetings in Thailand. If agreed, the deal could be signed by December 2026. Bangladesh is seeking approximately $4 billion, including $1.68 billion for climate resilience.
PM Tarique Rahman begins China visit today — BIDA eyes $400M investment pipeline; local currency settlement on agenda
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman begins his official visit to China today (24 June) for a four-day trip, the Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed. Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) expects a significant boost to Chinese investment, with approximately $400 million in potential investments in the pipeline covering electronics, semiconductors, EV batteries, advanced textiles, logistics, medical devices, and IT-enabled services. A major investment conference in Beijing is planned. Progress on the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara, Chattogram will be a key agenda. China has also proposed a second specialised economic zone in Mongla. Additionally, local currency settlement mechanisms between the two countries are under discussion to reduce dollar dependency. China ranked as Bangladesh's second-largest source of net FDI after the Netherlands in 2025.
DSEX rebounds 51 points to 5,605 — snaps three-session losing streak as blue chips lead recovery
The Dhaka Stock Exchange benchmark index DSEX climbed 51.01 points (0.91%) to close at 5,605.25 on 22 June, reversing a three-session decline. The rebound was led by blue-chip stocks including RECKITTBEN, MARICO, and UNILEVERCL. Total trade value reached Tk 12,100 million with 288,152 trades. However, market breadth remained mixed with 149 issues advancing and 178 declining. The recovery comes after the index had dropped 85 points on 22 June (2:40 PM snapshot) amid concerns over NBFI liquidations and weak macro data. Brokers caution that sustained recovery depends on improved corporate earnings and stable liquidity conditions.
Sources: DSE Official — 22 Jun 2026 · Amarstock
Inland waterway fees hiked up to 100% from July 1 — cement, wheat, salt transport costs to surge
The government has increased charges and fees by up to 100% for passenger and cargo vessels operating in inland and coastal waters, effective 1 July 2026. The conservancy charge for cargo vessels rises from Tk 40 to Tk 100 per gross tonne. Launch operators will pay Tk 150 annually per passenger, up 30% from Tk 115. Pilotage fees rise to Tk 750 per 8-hour period from Tk 500. Inland waterways carry up to 90% of essential commodities including raw materials for cement, wheat, salt, pulses, and stone. Cement manufacturers estimate production costs will rise by more than Tk 3 per bag. Md Aminul Islam of Nabil Group estimates wheat and lentil transport costs will increase by Tk 36 per tonne. The last rate revision was in 2019.
Chittagong Port posts record Tk 42.87B revenue surplus despite global slowdown
Chittagong Port Authority (CPA) generated a revenue surplus of Tk 42.87 billion during July-May FY26, with net surplus after taxes at Tk 22.28 billion. Revenue reached Tk 60.77 billion, up 22% YoY from Tk 49.52 billion. Container handling hit a record 3.409 million TEUs in 2025 (up 4.07%), while cargo handling rose to 138.15 million tonnes (up 11.4%). Ship handling reached a historic high of 4,273 vessels in 2025, up 10.5%. Port officials attributed the strong performance to improved operational efficiency, cost-control measures, and infrastructure upgrades. The surplus has risen steadily from Tk 16.33 billion in 2021 to Tk 31.43 billion in 2025.
SME confidence at rock bottom — lending rates of 15–16% stifle expansion, bankers call for specialised models
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) — the silent engine of Bangladesh's economy — are struggling with a crisis of confidence amid 15–16% lending rates, inflation above 9%, and weak private investment. "When entrepreneurs lose confidence, investment slows. When investment slows, jobs disappear," writes senior banker Salekeen Ibrahim. Access to finance remains the top constraint, with high borrowing costs making expansion plans financially unattractive. Experts call for relationship-based banking, digital loan processing, cash flow-based lending, and diversified financing channels including venture capital and supply chain finance. Women-led enterprises and rural agro-processing ventures deserve targeted support. Bangladesh Bank's recent stimulus measures are seen as insufficient without structural banking reform.
📌 The Debt Trap — The ERD numbers released yesterday are stark: Bangladesh is borrowing $4.57 billion and paying back $4.13 billion in the same period. Net inflow of $445 million is barely enough to cover two weeks of imports. Former BB Governor Mansur is right — we are "spending to survive." The IMF's new conditions (15% VAT, turnover tax, bank mergers) will be politically painful but may be unavoidable. The mid-July IMF mission is the make-or-break moment. Without a programme, Bangladesh risks losing the $4 billion anchor that keeps other development partners engaged. Watch the VAT debate closely — the gap between IMF's 15% and the government's 10-12% preference is the key negotiating fault line.
📌 The China Visit — PM Rahman's Beijing trip starting today is the most consequential diplomatic event of the quarter. Beyond the $400M BIDA pipeline, the real signal is sectoral diversification — China wants semiconductors, EV batteries, and IT, not just RMG. The local currency settlement discussion is equally significant: if Bangladesh and China can trade in yuan/taka, it reduces dollar pressure on our reserves. But ART constraints remain the elephant in the room. Every deep China deal risks the 19% US tariff concession. The Anwara zone ground-breaking and the Mongla zone proposal are concrete deliverables to watch. I'll be tracking the Beijing investment conference outcomes more than the joint statement.
Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 24 June 2026, 8 AM
USD / BDT — BB Interbank
123.10 ৳
BB interbank · 23 Jun · 5 PM rate: 123.1005 · Highest/Lowest: 122.7500 · Managed float under pressure
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
18.10 ৳
Bid: 18.10 · Ask: 18.11 · 23 Jun · Local currency settlement talks ongoing during PM visit
DSEX — Close Mon 22 Jun
5,605.25 pts
▲ +51.01 pts (+0.91%) — 22 Jun · Snaps three-session decline · Blue chips lead
Gold 22K / Gram
14,899 ৳
▼ -131 (-0.87%) · 23 Jun · 22K per bhori: ~Tk 2,29,700 · Intl gold ~$3,350/oz
Inflation Rate (May '26)
9.42%
▲ Up from 9.04% in Apr · Food: 9.06% · Non-food: 9.71% · BBS released 7 Jun · FY27 target: 7.5%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Jun 4 hold unanimous · Bank lending 15–16% · Next MPS Jul–Dec 2026 expected post-budget
Bad Loans (NPL) Mar '26
32.26%
▲ Up from 30.60% (Dec '25) · Total NPL: Tk 5.89 lakh crore · Up Tk 31,000cr in Q1
GDP Growth FY26 (Forecasts)
3.9–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY27 govt target: 6.5%
Food Inflation (May '26)
9.06%
▲ Up from 8.39% in Apr · 4 consecutive months rising · FY27 budget target: inflation to 7.5%
ADB Inflation FY26 Forecast
9.0%
ADB ADO Apr 2026 · ADB GDP FY26 forecast: 4.0% · WB GDP: 3.9%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Wednesday Morning, 24 June 2026
| Brent Crude — 23 Jun OilPrice.com · MarketWatch · 23 Jun 2026 | ~$76.73/bbl ▼ settled $76.80; down from $79.85 Thu · WTI: ~$73.13/bbl (Jun 23). Brent dropped sharply after US-Iran preliminary deal, but Tehran's renewed Hormuz closure claims sent prices volatile. Saudi Aramco cut June Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai. BD implication: every $5 drop in Brent meaningful for BPC subsidy exposure, but Hormuz uncertainty keeps premiums elevated. Sustained sub-$75 needed for meaningful relief. |
| US-Iran Talks: Technical Meetings Continue Reuters · 22 Jun 2026 | US-Iran technical talks continued on 23 June following high-level meetings at Buergenstock, Switzerland. VP JD Vance reported "good foundation" for a final peace deal. Key elements: roadmap to permanent agreement within 60 days; mechanism to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon; communications line for safe commercial passage through Hormuz. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued conflicting statements about Hormuz closure on 21 Jun, creating uncertainty. Three Saudi supertankers crossed Thursday; ~118 trapped tankers could exit within 15 days once shippers confirm deal durability. BD: LNG spot prices expected to ease from Q3 FY27. |
| Wall St — Close Tue 23 Jun Google Finance · NYSE · 23 Jun 2026 | Dow ▼ -0.09% (-45.87) to 51,666.84 · S&P 500 ▼ -1.44% (-107.33) to 7,365.46 · Nasdaq ▼ -2.21% (-579.56) to 25,587.04. Tech selloff weighed heavily on Nasdaq as Fed hawkishness persists and AI sector faces valuation concerns. BD implication: weak US equity sentiment may dampen BD IT outsourcing client confidence; hawkish Fed sustains USD strength pressure on BDT. |
| US Fed Rate — Jun 17 Decision Federal Reserve · 17 Jun 2026 | 3.50–3.75% — Held · Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. Hawkish shift: dot plot median now shows fed funds at 3.8% by year-end (up from 3.4% in March), with 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike in 2026. PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.6% for 2026. Forward guidance language entirely removed from policy statement. BD implication: potential 2026 rate hike sustains structural dollar strength; BDT managed-float pressure persists and BD import costs remain elevated. |
| Bitcoin — 23 Jun Yahoo Finance · Coinbase · 23 Jun 2026 | ~$63,951 ▼ -4.06% on 23 Jun · BTC diverging from equities: S&P rallied on Iran deal while BTC fell — crypto trading Fed hawkishness. Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear. Long-term holders absorbed ~125,000 BTC in June. BTC down ~37% YoY from ~$102K in Jun 2025. US-Iran formal signing completed Friday 19 June; markets reopened Monday for mixed reaction. |
| US–China & BD–US Tariff Dhaka Tribune · Reuters · Jun 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% (unchanged) · BD–US: 19% base tariff under ART (Feb 2026) — ART prohibits BD from signing trade deals with non-market economies (i.e. China). FY27 budget drafted under ART constraints. USTR proposed additional 10% forced-labour tariff on BD exports (4 Jun). LDC graduation November 2026 — three-year deferral still pending UN approval. US-China Boards of Trade established after May 2026 Trump-Xi summit; agricultural purchase commitments confirmed ($17B annually through 2028). |
| Israel–Lebanon Status MSN/i24news · 23 Jun 2026 | Israel's ambassador to the US blasted Lebanon ceasefire talks as a "train wreck" on 23 June, even as the US-Iran MOU calls for "immediate and permanent termination of military operations." Israeli officials are considering limited withdrawals from southern Lebanon ahead of Washington talks this week. Representatives from Israel and Lebanon set to meet again the week of June 22. Tensions remain elevated despite the broader US-Iran framework. |
| Strait of Hormuz Yahoo News · 23 Jun 2026 | Iran says it won't allow UN monitoring of Hormuz and maintains the strait is "closed" despite US disputes. Oil falling as supply begins moving through Hormuz for first time since late February. Mines and de-mining operations remain practical risk. BD: LNG spot prices expected to ease — GIIGNL tracking; BD's Tk 1,200+ crore/month LNG import bill may moderate from Q3 FY27 if deal holds. |
| India–Bangladesh & South Asia Dhaka Tribune · Jun 2026 | India's trade deficit with BD: $7.86B in FY25 — highest with any single country. India is BD's 2nd-largest trading partner (since Feb 2026). India continues diesel pipeline supply amid BD LNG shortage. ART obligation means BD cannot sign bilateral deal with China without risking 19% US tariff concession. China remains #1 at 21.21% of BD's total trade. Bangladesh expects $30 billion in development funds during PM's China visit — infrastructure, energy, and transport projects under discussion. |
| BD Jet Fuel / Energy BPC · BERC · Jun 2026 | BD jet fuel prices remain elevated despite Brent decline. Domestic jet fuel raised to Tk 202.29/litre (domestic) and $1.32/litre (international) in March 2026 — an ~80% hike. BPC subsidy exposure continues at current import levels. FY27 budget: strategic fuel reserve system proposed; BAPEX to drill 69 wells, 270km geological surveys through FY2027-28. Nine shallow-water + fifteen deep-water blocks opened for international oil companies under revised PSC. |
| US CPI & Inflation BLS · TradingEconomics · Jun 2026 | US CPI inflation 4.20% in May 2026 (up from 3.80% in Apr) · Core CPI: 2.9% (up from 2.8%) · Energy index +23.5% YoY; gasoline +40.5%. June CPI data to be released 14 July 2026. BD implication: elevated US inflation supports Fed hawkishness, sustaining USD strength and BDT pressure. BD exporters to US face margin compression from both BDT depreciation and weak demand. |
| Saudi Arabia / OPEC+ WSJ · 6 May 2026 | Saudi Aramco cut June Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai (from $19.50 in May) — first cut from record highs since Iran war began. Seven OPEC+ countries raising output targets by 188,000 bpd in June, third consecutive monthly increase. UAE quit OPEC+ last week, dealing blow to cartel cohesion. BD implication: lower Saudi OSPs reduce BPC import costs marginally, but overall energy bill remains elevated due to Hormuz disruption premiums. |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA Oil Outlook Goldman Sachs · IEA · Jun 2026 | Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent averaging $56/bbl in 2026 (vs $59 forwards) due to 2.0 mb/d oversupply, with prices bottoming mid-2026. IEA June OMR: global oil supply to fall 3.9 mb/d in 2026 to 102.4 mb/d due to Gulf disruptions. If US-Iran deal holds, Iranian exports could resume fully. BD implication: near-term relief possible but GS long-term forecast suggests structural oversupply — good for BD energy importers if sustained. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
Anthropic's new "Claude Tag" learns your company from Slack — and Meta wants to build its own prediction market. Here's what Dhaka's professionals should know. Anthropic launched "Claude Tag" this week, an AI agent that integrates with Slack, Gmail, and calendars to learn your company's communication patterns and automatically surface relevant context. For Bangladeshi teams using Slack: this means less time searching through channels and more time acting on information. The catch — it requires enterprise-grade permissions that most Dhaka startups don't have configured. Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg announced Meta is building a prediction market platform (think Polymarket but inside Meta's ecosystem). For BD fintech and trading desks: this could democratise event-driven trading, but regulatory ambiguity around prediction markets in Bangladesh means watch from the sidelines. The practical takeaway: Claude Tag is worth piloting for teams over 20 people; Meta's prediction market is noise until regulators clarify. Don't chase hype — chase workflow efficiency.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
I spent Tuesday reading the ERD debt data and the IMF conditions. Two things are clear. First, the $445 million net foreign loan inflow is not a number — it's a warning. When you're borrowing $4.57 billion and paying back $4.13 billion in the same period, you're not financing development; you're refinancing survival. The IMF's 15% VAT demand will be politically explosive, but without it, the $4 billion programme dies. Second, the PM's China visit starting today is the most important economic event of the quarter. Not because of the $400M pipeline, but because local currency settlement talks could reduce our dollar dependency. If Bangladesh and China can trade in yuan/taka, it changes the reserve math entirely. But ART constraints mean every China deal risks the 19% US tariff. That's the real tension. I'll be watching the Beijing investment conference and the VAT debate more than the DSE index this week.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
TUESDAY, 23 JUNE 2026 · WEEKDAY EDITION · LET'S GET BACK TO CREATE IMPACT
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekday Edition
Free forever
Top Story
Budget FY27 Strain · NBR Revenue Shortfall · PM China Visit · NBFI Liquidation · Farmer Fertiliser Crisis
Economists warn FY27 budget faces structural strain, revenue risks, and equity concerns — NBR growth target seen as 'major implementation challenge'
The proposed Tk 9.38 lakh crore FY2026-27 budget — the largest in Bangladesh's history — has drawn sharp criticism from economists who say it reflects "gradual evolution rather than structural change." At a post-budget review by the Bengal Institute of Peace and Economic Development on 22 June, experts noted that non-development expenditure accounts for 66.3% of the total outlay, while development spending is allocated Tk 3.16 lakh crore. CPD Additional Director Toufiqul Islam Khan highlighted the persistent gap between revenue targets and economic realities. AKM Waresul Karim of NSU described the 43.79% NBR revenue growth target as a "major implementation challenge." Regressive taxation, tax whitening provisions, and rising housing costs were flagged as risks to equity. Change Initiative's Zakir Khan called the budget "emotionally driven rather than strategically designed."
NBR expects Tk 415,000 crore revenue in FY26 — falling Tk 88,000 crore short of target; FY27 target of Tk 604,000 crore seen as 'highly ambitious'
The National Board of Revenue expects to collect Tk 415,000 crore in the current fiscal year, missing the target by Tk 88,000 crore. July-May collection reached Tk 360,642 crore (10% YoY growth), with June receipts taking the total to Tk 389,953 crore. The NBR has formed three task forces to accelerate collection. For FY27, the government aims for Tk 604,000 crore from NBR — an 18.2% increase over the revised target. CPD's Towfiqul Islam Khan warned there is a risk of a Tk 100,000 crore shortfall next year as well. "There has to be extraordinary performance in revenue collection. There is no alternative to reforms," he said. Income tax grew 12.5% YoY to Tk 121,072 crore (July-May), while VAT from domestic sources rose 10% to Tk 140,168 crore.
PM Tarique Rahman begins China visit today — BIDA expects $400M investment pipeline to expand; Chinese Economic Zone in Anwara key agenda
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman begins his four-day visit to China today (23 June), with Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) expecting a significant boost to Chinese investment. BIDA currently has approximately $400 million in potential Chinese investments in its pipeline, covering electronics, semiconductors, EV batteries, advanced textiles, logistics, medical devices, and IT-enabled services. A major investment conference in Beijing is planned. BIDA and BEZA Executive Chairman Ashik Chowdhury said progress on the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara, Chattogram will be a key agenda. China has also proposed a second specialised economic zone in Mongla. China ranked as Bangladesh's second-largest source of net FDI after the Netherlands in 2025, when total net FDI inflows rose 39.36% to $1.77 billion.
Troubled NBFIs among top stock market gainers despite liquidation orders — People's Leasing surges 8.33% to Tk 1.30
Despite Bangladesh Bank's decision to liquidate five NBFIs, shares of these distressed companies featured among yesterday's top gainers. People's Leasing and Financial Services climbed 8.33% to Tk 1.30, while Fareast Finance also gained 8.33%. Phoenix Finance rose 5.4% and First Finance 4.87%. Four of the top five gainers were struggling NBFIs. BB has identified 20 NBFIs in critically weak financial health with defaulted loans exceeding 90%. The nine institutions slated for liquidation account for 52% of total NBFI sector defaulted loans (Tk 25,089 crore). Seven have an average net asset value of negative Tk 95 per share. A senior brokerage official said investors are buying based on rumours of returns, but "there is no realistic prospect of shareholders getting anything back."
95% of Bangladeshi farmers use unbalanced fertilisers — World Bank warns of soil degradation, yield losses; potential 87% potato output spike if corrected
A World Bank report launched on 15 June found that 95% of Bangladeshi farmers use unbalanced combinations of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and sulphur. Only 5% apply balanced nutrients. Two-thirds overuse phosphorus, nearly 90% apply too little sulphur, and 60% fall short on potassium. Correcting these imbalances could increase yields by 33% for Boro rice, 65% for Aman rice, and 87% for potatoes. Agriculture Minister Mohammed Amin Ur Rashid said average soil pH is around 4.5 — well below the 6.5 needed for quality. Organic matter averages just 0.5% to 1.7% versus the ideal 5%. The DAE's weakness in communicating BARC guidelines was identified as a key factor. The government aims to reduce input use by 23% while increasing yields.
Dhaka and Kuala Lumpur eye concluding mutually beneficial FTA by 2027
Bangladesh and Malaysia are working toward concluding a mutually beneficial free trade agreement by 2027, as both countries seek to deepen economic ties and expand market access. The proposed FTA would cover trade in goods, services, and investment, with particular focus on RMG, pharmaceuticals, and IT services from Bangladesh, and palm oil, electronics, and petrochemicals from Malaysia. Negotiations are expected to accelerate following the PM's China visit, with Dhaka keen to diversify its trade agreements ahead of LDC graduation in November 2026.
📌 The Budget Reality Check — The FY27 budget at Tk 9.38 lakh crore is the largest ever, but the numbers tell a worrying story. Non-development spending consumes 66.3% of the outlay, and the NBR's 43.79% revenue growth target is being called "emotionally driven" by experts. With FY26 collection likely ending at Tk 415,000 crore — Tk 88,000 crore short — the FY27 target of Tk 604,000 crore looks even more distant. The government plans to borrow Tk 112,000 crore from banks, which will crowd out private investment. Without separating NBR's policy and collection roles, and without ACC reform, this budget risks becoming another exercise in wishful thinking. Watch the NBR task forces closely — they have 10 days to collect Tk 25,000 crore to even hit the reduced FY26 target.
📌 The China Visit — PM Rahman's visit to Beijing starting today is more than diplomatic theatre. BIDA has $400M in Chinese investment proposals in the pipeline, and the Anwara Economic Zone could finally see ground broken. But the real signal is sectoral: China wants electronics, semiconductors, EV batteries, and IT — not just RMG. If Bangladesh can pivot from garment-dependent FDI to technology and advanced manufacturing, this visit could mark a structural shift. The Mongla zone proposal is a bonus. The risk? ART constraints mean any deep China deal could jeopardise the 19% US tariff concession. Dhaka is walking a tightrope.
Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 23 June 2026, 8 AM
USD / BDT — BB Interbank
122.90 ৳
BB interbank · 22 Jun · 5 PM rate: 122.8989 · Highest/Lowest: 122.7500 · Managed float stable
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
18.09 ৳
1 CNY = 18.09 BDT · 22 Jun · Verify on exchange-rates.org before transacting
DSEX — Close Mon 22 Jun
5,554.18 pts
▼ -85.71 pts (-1.52%) — 22 Jun (2:40 PM) · Reverses three-session gain
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,30,772 ৳
Updated 22 Jun · 22K per gram: Tk 15,030-15,161 · Intl gold ~$3,350/oz (safe-haven demand persists)
Inflation Rate (May '26)
9.42%
▲ Up from 9.04% in Apr · Food: 9.06% · Non-food: 9.71% · BBS released 7 Jun · FY27 target: 7.5%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Jun 4 hold unanimous · Bank lending 15–16% · Next MPS Jul–Dec 2026 expected post-budget
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Total NPL: Tk 5.45 lakh crore · Sector CRAR: −2.9%
GDP Growth FY26 (Forecasts)
3.9–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY27 govt target: 6.5%
Food Inflation (May '26)
9.06%
▲ Up from 8.39% in Apr · 4 consecutive months rising · FY27 budget target: inflation to 7.5%
ADB Inflation FY26 Forecast
9.0%
ADB ADO Apr 2026 · ADB GDP FY26 forecast: 4.0% · WB GDP: 3.9%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Tuesday Morning, 23 June 2026
| Brent Crude — 18–22 Jun OilPrice.com · Yahoo Finance · 18–22 Jun 2026 | ~$77.77/bbl ▼ settled $77.77 on Mon; down from $79.85 Thu · WTI: ~$84.65/bbl (Jun 15). Brent dropped sharply after US-Iran MOU signed 18 Jun, but Tehran's renewed Hormuz closure claims on 21 Jun sent prices back up. Saudi Aramco cut June Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai. BD implication: every $5 drop in Brent meaningful for BPC subsidy exposure, but Hormuz uncertainty keeps premiums elevated. Sustained sub-$75 needed for meaningful relief. |
| US-Iran Talks at Buergenstock: Progress Amid Tensions Reuters · 22 Jun 2026 | The most significant geopolitical development overnight is the continuation of US-Iran peace talks at the Qatari-owned Swiss mountain resort of Buergenstock. On 22 June 2026, U.S. Vice President JD Vance reported that talks with Iranian officials had laid a "good foundation" for a final peace deal.Key Developments:The two sides agreed to a roadmap towards a permanent agreement within 60 days. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar confirmed the framework. Agreement on a mechanism to end fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Communications line opened to ensure safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. High-level talks ended early on Monday; technical meetings to continue this week. Violence in Lebanon has abated since late Saturday. |
| Wall St — Close Mon 22 Jun Google Finance · NYSE · 22 Jun 2026 | Dow ▲ +0.29% (+148 pts) to 51,712.71 · S&P 500 ▼ -0.37% (-27.79) to 7,472.79 · Nasdaq ▼ -1.32% (-351.33) to 26,166.60. Tech selloff weighed on Nasdaq as Fed hawkishness persists. Markets reopened after Juneteenth holiday (Fri 19 Jun). BD implication: mixed equity signals support cautious BD IT outsourcing client confidence; hawkish Fed tone sustains USD strength pressure on BDT. |
| US Fed Rate — Jun 17 Decision Federal Reserve · 17 Jun 2026 | 3.50–3.75% — Held · Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. Hawkish shift: dot plot median now shows fed funds at 3.8% by year-end (up from 3.4% in March), with 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike in 2026. PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.6% for 2026. Forward guidance language entirely removed from policy statement. BD implication: potential 2026 rate hike sustains structural dollar strength; BDT managed-float pressure persists and BD import costs remain elevated. |
| Bitcoin — 18–22 Jun Yahoo Finance · Coinbase · 18–22 Jun 2026 | ~$63,500–$71,360 ▼ volatile through period · BTC diverging from equities: S&P rallied on Iran deal while BTC fell — equity markets trading Hormuz signal; crypto trading Fed hawkishness. Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear (22). Long-term holders absorbed ~125,000 BTC in June. BTC down ~37% YoY from ~$102K in Jun 2025. US-Iran formal signing completed Friday 19 June; markets reopened Monday for mixed reaction. |
| US–China & BD–US Tariff Dhaka Tribune · Reuters · Jun 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% (unchanged) · BD–US: 19% base tariff under ART (Feb 2026) — ART prohibits BD from signing trade deals with non-market economies (i.e. China). FY27 budget drafted under ART constraints. NBR tariff rationalisation: import duty cut on 69 categories, regulatory duty withdrawn on 113 items. LDC graduation November 2026 — three-year deferral still pending UN approval. US-China Boards of Trade established after May 2026 Trump-Xi summit; agricultural purchase commitments confirmed ($17B annually through 2028). No broad tariff accord expected before June 30 deadline. |
| Israel–Lebanon Status i24news · 22 Jun 2026 | Israel is considering limited withdrawals from southern Lebanon ahead of Washington talks this week. The move comes amid ongoing ceasefire efforts and US pressure for de-escalation. Representatives from Israel and Lebanon set to meet again the week of June 22. US-Iran MOU's Article 1 calls for "immediate and permanent termination of military operations." Israeli officials have not confirmed how Lebanon fits within broader MOU framework. Tensions remain elevated. |
| Strait of Hormuz Yahoo News · 22 Jun 2026 | Mixed messages from Tehran and Washington created confusion over Hormuz status. Iran claims the strait is closed; US disputes this. Oil falling as supply begins moving through Hormuz for first time since late February. Three Saudi supertankers crossed Thursday; ~118 trapped tankers could exit within 15 days once shippers confirm deal durability. Mines and de-mining operations remain practical risk. BD: LNG spot prices expected to ease — GIIGNL tracking; BD's Tk 1,200+ crore/month LNG import bill may moderate from Q3 FY27. |
| India–Bangladesh & South Asia Dhaka Tribune · Jun 2026 | India's trade deficit with BD: $7.86B in FY25 — highest with any single country. India is BD's 2nd-largest trading partner (since Feb 2026). India continues diesel pipeline supply amid BD LNG shortage. ART obligation means BD cannot sign bilateral deal with China without risking 19% US tariff concession. China remains #1 at 21.21% of BD's total trade. Bangladesh expects $30 billion in development funds during PM's upcoming China visit — infrastructure, energy, and transport projects under discussion. |
| BD Jet Fuel / Energy BPC · BERC · Jun 2026 | BD jet fuel prices remain elevated despite Brent decline. Domestic jet fuel raised to Tk 202.29/litre (domestic) and $1.32/litre (international) in March 2026 — an ~80% hike. BPC subsidy exposure continues at current import levels. FY27 budget: strategic fuel reserve system proposed; BAPEX to drill 69 wells, 270km geological surveys through FY2027-28. Nine shallow-water + fifteen deep-water blocks opened for international oil companies under revised PSC. Two new exploration rigs to be procured for BAPEX. Domestic gas exploration prioritized to reduce LNG import dependence. |
| US CPI & Inflation BLS · TradingEconomics · Jun 2026 | US CPI inflation 4.20% in May 2026 (up from 3.80% in Apr) · Core CPI: 2.9% (up from 2.8%) · Energy index +23.5% YoY; gasoline +40.5%. June CPI data to be released 14 July 2026. BD implication: elevated US inflation supports Fed hawkishness, sustaining USD strength and BDT pressure. BD exporters to US face margin compression from both BDT depreciation and weak demand. |
| Saudi Arabia / OPEC+ WSJ · 6 May 2026 | Saudi Aramco cut June Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai (from $19.50 in May) — first cut from record highs since Iran war began. Seven OPEC+ countries raising output targets by 188,000 bpd in June, third consecutive monthly increase. UAE quit OPEC+ last week, dealing blow to cartel cohesion. BD implication: lower Saudi OSPs reduce BPC import costs marginally, but overall energy bill remains elevated due to Hormuz disruption premiums. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
Anthropic's government feud just made American AI a geopolitical risk — and Bangladeshi developers should diversify their model dependencies now. In April, Anthropic built Mythos, an AI so good at coding it was flagged as a global cybersecurity threat. The modified Fable release on June 9 was immediately hit with US export controls. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy (who invests in Anthropic and builds competing models) was the one who warned officials. The result? Anthropic revoked access to both models within hours. For Dhaka's dev teams: this is a wake-up call. If your production pipeline depends on Claude, OpenAI, or any US-hosted model, you now face a new risk — not API pricing, but geopolitical shutdown. The fix: (1) maintain parallel integrations with non-US providers (Mistral, Cohere, open-weights like Llama); (2) self-host smaller models for critical workflows; (3) watch EU AI Act developments — Brussels is positioning itself as the "stable" alternative. The bottom line: AI model access is no longer just a technical decision. It's a geopolitical one.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
I spent Monday reading the FY27 budget critiques and the NBR revenue data. Two things are clear. First, the Tk 9.38 lakh crore budget is the largest ever, but 66.3% is non-development spending and the NBR target requires 43.79% growth — a figure no serious economist believes is achievable. The Tk 415,000 crore actual collection (Tk 88,000 crore short) proves the point. Second, the PM's China visit starting today is the most important economic event of the week. Not because of the $400M pipeline, but because China wants semiconductors, EV batteries, and IT — not just RMG. If Bangladesh can pivot from garment-dependent FDI to technology, this visit changes everything. But ART constraints mean every China deal risks the 19% US tariff. That's the real tension. I'll be watching Anwara more than the DSE index this week.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 22 JUNE 2026 · WEEKDAY EDITION · LET'S GET BACK TO CREATE IMPACT
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekday Edition
Free forever
Top Story
ITFC $2.8B Loan · WB $1.5B Support · NBR Split · DSE Surveillance · Tea Sector Turnaround
Bangladesh seeks $2.8 billion ITFC loan for fuel oil, LNG, and fertiliser imports in FY27 — negotiations begin today in Jeddah
Bangladesh will begin negotiations with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) in Jeddah today (22 June) for a $2.8 billion loan to finance critical energy and agricultural imports in FY2026-27. The breakdown: $2.01 billion for fuel oil imports by BPC, $600 million for LNG imports by Petrobangla, and $200 million for fertiliser imports by BADC. BPC has requested lower financing markup and flexibility to open LCs through any Bangladeshi bank — not just ITFC-member institutions. Petrobangla plans to use the facility for at least two LNG cargo purchases in June, as major suppliers including QatarEnergy and OQ Trading have declared force majeure until June 2026 due to the Iran war. Bangladesh has also formally requested ITFC to raise its overall financing ceiling to $3.5 billion for FY27, reflecting rising global commodity prices and supply chain risks. The delegation is led by ERD Secretary Shahriar Kader Siddiky, Energy Secretary Mohammad Saiful Islam, and Agriculture Secretary Dr Rafiqul I Mohamed.
World Bank to approve $1.5 billion in budget support this month — $800M repurposed, $400M for banking reforms
The World Bank's board is set to approve $1.5 billion in budget support for Bangladesh this month under three programmes. Of this, $800 million will be repurposed from existing project loans through the Rapid Response Option (RRO) window, $300 million for fertiliser imports and food assistance, and $400 million for banking sector reforms. As conditions, the government has agreed to scrap the much-criticised Bank Resolution Act, 2026, and enact two new laws: the Distressed Asset Management Act (DAMA) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act. The WB has also advised stricter enforcement of related-party lending rules, full supervisory powers for BB, and corporate governance aligned with international norms. State-owned banks will undergo asset quality reviews (AQR). The breakthrough came after multiple rounds of talks in Washington DC and Dhaka. Bangladesh needs an additional $2.61 billion to pay elevated energy and fertiliser import bills for the last quarter of FY26 due to the Iran war.
Government to split NBR into separate policy and implementation wings — Finance Minister Khosru
Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury announced that the National Board of Revenue will be split into separate policy and implementation wings as part of broader efforts to address Bangladesh's persistently low tax-to-GDP ratio. The policy wing will comprise tax specialists and individuals with a strong understanding of Bangladesh's socio-economic realities, while career bureaucrats will focus on implementation and enforcement. "Bangladesh's major taxation problem and NBR's problem is policy-making. If you get that right to start with, then 50% of the problem is solved," Khosru said at a CPD budget dialogue on 21 June. The interim government had dissolved the NBR on 13 May 2025 and established two separate entities — the Revenue Policy Division and the Revenue Management Division — but the move was stalled amid protests by revenue officials. The FY27 budget aims to raise revenue-to-GDP to 10.2% from the current sub-7% — the lowest in South Asia.
Sources: TBS News — NBR Split, 21 Jun 2026
DSE resumes real-time trade halting after nearly 10 years — three stocks suspended for "unusual price movements"
The Dhaka Stock Exchange has resumed halting share trading under its real-time surveillance mechanism — a practice discontinued for nearly a decade. In the past two weeks, trading was halted in Sonargaon Textiles, Shyampur Sugar Mills, and Bangladesh National Insurance after citing "unusual price movements." Shyampur Sugar had surged 66% to Tk 239 in the month before the halt; Sonargaon Textiles more than doubled from Tk 42 to Tk 87; Bangladesh National Insurance rose 46% to Tk 116. All three resumed trading the following day. DSE MD Nuzhat Anwar: "We will always do that to protect investors' interests." BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam said the halts serve as early warning signals. Separately, the DSE board is developing software to monitor investors' funds and shareholding positions in real time to curb broker misappropriation. Of 396 listed shares, 125 are Z-category (junk) stocks and 75 are B-category — only 196 are A-category.
Tea sector earns Tk562 crore more in two years after minimum auction pricing — average price hits Tk245.50/kg
Tea estates and small growers earned more than Tk562 crore in additional income over the past two years after the government introduced minimum auction prices. The average auction price rose to Tk245.50 per kg in FY26, up from Tk171.24 in FY24 — a Tk74.26/kg increase. Total auction income reached a record Tk2,226 crore in FY26, up from Tk1,664 crore in FY24. The policy was first trialled in 20 auctions in March 2024 and expanded nationwide in May 2025. Minimum prices were fixed at Tk245/kg for Sylhet and Chattogram tea and Tk170/kg for North Bengal bought-leaf tea. Panchagarh — now Bangladesh's second-largest tea-producing region at 21% of national output — saw auction prices rise from Tk100-150/kg to Tk241-246/kg. The turnaround was credited to policy intervention through minimum auction pricing, which protected growers amid rising labour wages, gas, fertiliser, and electricity costs.
Tyre importers protest 20% supplementary duty in FY27 budget — claim it benefits only 10-15% local market share
Tyre importers, dealers, and transport operators have urged the government to withdraw the proposed 20% supplementary duty on commercial vehicle tyres in the FY27 budget. If implemented, total tax incidence would rise from 64.25% to 96.10%. Importers claim imported tyres meet 85-90% of Bangladesh's commercial vehicle tyre demand, while local manufacturers account for only 10-15%. "It is unreasonable to impose additional taxes on the larger market to benefit local producers who supply only a small portion of total demand," said Saifuddin Ahmed of the Chattogram Tyre Tube Importers and Dealers Group. Transport operators warned that higher tyre prices would increase freight and passenger costs, ultimately raising consumer prices. The association president, Main Uddin, said imported tyres are subject to 100% physical examination and valuation based on weight, leaving little room for duty evasion.
Government to launch online one-stop investor services — provisional licences to cut approval delays
Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir announced that a central online "one-stop window" system is being developed so investors do not need to visit multiple offices. Factory approvals could not always be completed within 15 days due to safety, fire, and environmental assessments — to prevent delays, the government will issue provisional licences so investors can quickly begin preliminary operations. BIDA will coordinate one-time joint inspections to eliminate repeated visits. On EVs, the minister said Bangladesh is not yet fully prepared and will prioritise plug-in hybrid vehicles for now. JBCCI leaders welcomed the Bangladesh-Japan free trade agreement as a means of boosting bilateral cooperation. "Our goal is to increase investors' confidence by reducing time, cost and complexity," Muktadir said.
📌 The ITFC Negotiation — The $2.8 billion ITFC loan request is the largest single-year financing ask from Bangladesh to the Islamic Development Bank Group. The breakdown tells the real story: $2.01B for fuel oil, $600M for LNG, and $200M for fertiliser — all three are import bills that have ballooned because of the Iran war. Petrobangla's plan to use the facility for at least two LNG cargo purchases in June is urgent, given QatarEnergy and OQ Trading's force majeure declarations. The request to raise the ITFC ceiling to $3.5B signals that Bangladesh expects these elevated import costs to persist through FY27. Watch the Jeddah negotiations closely — the final amount and terms will be determined this week.
📌 The WB $1.5B Test — The World Bank's $1.5 billion package is critical budget support, but the conditions matter more than the amount. Scrapping the Bank Resolution Act, enacting DAMA and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act, and stricter related-party lending enforcement are reforms that previous governments shelved due to opposition from bank owners. The $400M for banking sector reforms comes with teeth: AQR for state-owned banks, corporate governance aligned with international norms, and licensing small companies to recover bad loans. Whether these reforms survive political pressure will determine if the $1.5B is a bridge or a Band-Aid.
Economy Watch
Bangladesh Economic Data — Updated 22 June 2026, 8 AM
USD / BDT — BB Interbank
122.97 ৳
BB interbank · 21 Jun · 11 AM rate: 122.9713 · 5 PM rate: 122.8993 · Managed float stable
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
18.09 ৳
1 CNY = 18.09 BDT · 21 Jun · Verify on exchange-rates.org before transacting
DSEX — Close Sun 21 Jun
5,639.89 pts
▼ -21.49 pts (-0.38%) — 21 Jun (2:40 PM) · Reverses three-session gain
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,26,340 ৳
Updated 22 Jun · Unchanged from 19 Jun · Intl gold ~$3,350/oz (safe-haven demand persists)
Inflation Rate (May '26)
9.42%
▲ Up from 9.04% in Apr · Food: 9.06% · Non-food: 9.71% · BBS released 7 Jun · FY27 target: 7.5%
Policy Rate (BB Repo)
10.0%
Unchanged · Jun 4 hold unanimous · Bank lending 15–16% · Next MPS Jul–Dec 2026 expected post-budget
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Total NPL: Tk 5.45 lakh crore · Sector CRAR: −2.9%
GDP Growth FY26 (Forecasts)
3.9–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY27 govt target: 6.5%
Food Inflation (May '26)
9.06%
▲ Up from 8.39% in Apr · 4 consecutive months rising · FY27 budget target: inflation to 7.5%
ADB Inflation FY26 Forecast
9.0%
ADB ADO Apr 2026 · ADB GDP FY26 forecast: 4.0% · WB GDP: 3.9%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Monday Morning, 22 June 2026
| Brent Crude — 19–21 Jun OilPrice.com · EIA · 19–21 Jun 2026 | ~$77–$78/bbl ▼ stable from Thu; −38% from April peak · WTI: ~$75–$76/bbl (settled $75.93 on 21 Jun). Oil holding at lowest since late February after US-Iran MOU signed 18 Jun. Saudi supertankers continue crossing Hormuz; ~12 million barrels transited Thursday. Full restoration of flows expected 30–60 days; mines remain. BD implication: every $5 drop in Brent meaningful for BPC subsidy exposure and factory energy invoices — sustained sub-$75 needed for meaningful relief. Juneteenth holiday (Fri 19 Jun) limited trading volume. |
| Iran–US TALK — Day 2 Reuters · 22 Jun 2026 | Trump signed the 14-point MOU with Iran at Versailles on Wednesday 18 June — formal ceremony in Switzerland occurred Friday 19 June. Then the peace talk began on 21 june and US-Iran talks extended to Day 2 after Trump threatened to “hit Iran harder” and Tehran again claimed the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Shipping traffic plunged (5 vessels Sunday vs 26 Saturday). Brent crude jumped +$1 to $81.66. For Bangladesh, every dollar spike pressures LNG import bills and factory energy costs. Watch technical talks this week — the deal isn't dead, but it's fragile. |
| Wall St — Close Thu 18 Jun / Mon 22 Jun Google Finance · NYSE · 18–22 Jun 2026 | Markets closed Friday 19 June for Juneteenth holiday. Thursday 18 Jun close: S&P 500 ▲ +1.08% to 7,500.58 · Nasdaq ▲ +1.91% to 26,517.93 · Dow ▲ +0.14% (+72 pts) to 51,564.70 · Russell 2000 ▲ +2.12%. Monday 22 Jun (CFD): S&P 500 ~7,487 ▼ -0.19% from Thu close. US markets reopened Monday 22 June. BD implication: equity resilience supports BD IT outsourcing client confidence, but hawkish Fed tone adds to USD strength pressure on BDT. |
| US Fed Rate — Jun 17 Decision Federal Reserve · 17 Jun 2026 | 3.50–3.75% — Held · Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. Hawkish shift: dot plot median now shows fed funds at 3.8% by year-end (up from 3.4% in March), with 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike in 2026. PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.6% for 2026. Forward guidance language entirely removed from policy statement. BD implication: potential 2026 rate hike sustains structural dollar strength; BDT managed-float pressure persists and BD import costs remain elevated. |
| Bitcoin — 18–22 Jun Yahoo Finance · Coinbase · 18–22 Jun 2026 | ~$63,500–$64,200 ▼ range-bound through weekend · BTC diverging from equities: S&P rallied +1.7% on Iran deal while BTC fell — equity markets trading Hormuz signal; crypto trading Fed hawkishness. Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear (22). Long-term holders absorbed ~125,000 BTC in June — one of largest monthly accumulation events of this cycle. US-Iran formal signing completed Friday 19 June; markets reopened Monday for reaction. BTC down ~37% YoY from ~$102K in Jun 2025. |
| US–China & BD–US Tariff Dhaka Tribune · Reuters · Jun 2026 | US–China tariffs ~45% (unchanged) · BD–US: 19% base tariff under ART (Feb 2026) — ART prohibits BD from signing trade deals with non-market economies (i.e. China). FY27 budget drafted under ART constraints. NBR tariff rationalisation: import duty cut on 69 categories, regulatory duty withdrawn on 113 items. LDC graduation November 2026 — three-year deferral still pending UN approval. US-China Boards of Trade established after May 2026 Trump-Xi summit; agricultural purchase commitments confirmed ($17B annually through 2028). No broad tariff accord expected before June 30 deadline. |
| Israel–Lebanon Status Reuters · 20 Jun 2026 | At least five killed in Israeli strikes in south Lebanon Saturday 20 June despite ceasefire efforts. Israel issued new Lebanon occupation map this week amid ongoing talks with US over American troop deployment. Talks on durable ceasefire framework continue. US-Iran MOU's Article 1 calls for "immediate and permanent termination of military operations." Israeli officials have not confirmed how Lebanon fits within broader MOU framework. Tensions remain elevated. Representatives from Israel and Lebanon set to meet again the week of June 22. |
| Strait of Hormuz Reuters · 20 Jun 2026 | US disputes Iranian claims about closing Strait of Hormuz as negotiators head to Geneva. Oil falling as supply begins moving through Hormuz for first time since late February. Three Saudi supertankers crossed Thursday; ~118 trapped tankers could exit within 15 days once shippers confirm deal durability. Mines and de-mining operations remain practical risk. BD: LNG spot prices expected to ease — GIIGNL tracking; BD's Tk 1,200+ crore/month LNG import bill may moderate from Q3 FY27. |
| India–Bangladesh & South Asia Dhaka Tribune · Jun 2026 | India's trade deficit with BD: $7.86B in FY25 — highest with any single country. India is BD's 2nd-largest trading partner (since Feb 2026). India continues diesel pipeline supply amid BD LNG shortage. ART obligation means BD cannot sign bilateral deal with China without risking 19% US tariff concession. China remains #1 at 21.21% of BD's total trade. Bangladesh expects $30 billion in development funds during PM's upcoming China visit — infrastructure, energy, and transport projects under discussion. |
| BD Jet Fuel / Energy BPC · BERC · Jun 2026 | BD jet fuel prices remain elevated despite Brent decline. Domestic jet fuel raised to Tk 202.29/litre (domestic) and $1.32/litre (international) in March 2026 — an ~80% hike. BPC subsidy exposure continues at current import levels. FY27 budget: strategic fuel reserve system proposed; BAPEX to drill 69 wells, 270km geological surveys through FY2027-28. Nine shallow-water + fifteen deep-water blocks opened for international oil companies under revised PSC. Two new exploration rigs to be procured for BAPEX. Domestic gas exploration prioritized to reduce LNG import dependence. |
| US CPI & Inflation BLS · TradingEconomics · Jun 2026 | US CPI inflation 4.20% in May 2026 (up from 3.80% in Apr) · Core CPI elevated · PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.6% for 2026 by Fed. June CPI data to be released 14 July 2026. BD implication: elevated US inflation supports Fed hawkishness, sustaining USD strength and BDT pressure. BD exporters to US face margin compression from both BDT depreciation and weak demand. |
| Saudi Arabia / OPEC+ WSJ · 6 May 2026 | Saudi Aramco cut June Arab Light OSP for Asia by $4/bbl to $15.50 above Oman/Dubai (from $19.50 in May) — first cut from record highs since Iran war began. Seven OPEC+ countries raising output targets by 188,000 bpd in June, third consecutive monthly increase. UAE quit OPEC+ last week, dealing blow to cartel cohesion. BD implication: lower Saudi OSPs reduce BPC import costs marginally, but overall energy bill remains elevated due to Hormuz disruption premiums. |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
Anthropic's June 15 billing change just ended the "free ride" for programmatic Claude usage — and every Bangladeshi developer running Claude Code in CI pipelines needs to act now. Starting 15 June 2026, Claude Agent SDK,
claude -p (headless mode), and Claude Code GitHub Actions no longer draw from your subscription limits. Instead, they bill against a separate monthly credit: $20 for Pro, $100 for Max 5x, $200 for Max 20x — metered at full API rates with no rollover. Interactive terminal use is unchanged. What this means for Dhaka's dev teams: if you were running production agents on a $20 Pro plan, your effective cost just jumped 12x–150x depending on volume. The fix: (1) claim your Agent SDK credit before it expires each cycle; (2) enable prompt caching — cuts input cost 70–90% on repetitive workflows; (3) route routine tasks to cheaper models (Haiku 4.5 vs Opus 4.7); (4) consider the Codex + Claude Code combo that some teams report cuts weekly limit burn by 50%. The bottom line: AI coding is no longer subsidised. Budget for it like you budget for cloud infrastructure.ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
I spent Sunday reading the ITFC negotiation briefs and the WB's $1.5B conditions. Two things struck me. First, the $2.8B ITFC ask is almost entirely for energy imports — fuel oil, LNG, fertiliser. This isn't development financing; it's survival financing. The fact that Bangladesh needs to borrow $2.8B just to keep the lights on and the factories running tells you everything about how much the Iran war has cost us. Second, the WB's conditions — scrapping the Bank Resolution Act, enacting DAMA, AQR for state-owned banks — are reforms that have been promised for a decade. The difference this time is that the government actually needs the money. Necessity is the mother of reform. Whether that reform survives the political pressure from bank owners is the only question that matters for FY27. I'll be watching the Jeddah negotiations this week more than the DSE index.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 02 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 280 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh hunts for fuel worldwide as energy crisis deepens
The government approved emergency imports of 2.60 lakh tonnes of diesel and crude — from Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and a UAE-based trader — to contain a worsening fuel crunch triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. Long queues persist at pumps across Dhaka despite official assurances of no shortage.
Energy import bill to surge $4.8B this year
Annual fossil fuel import costs are projected to rise 40% from 2025 levels — equal to 1.1% of GDP — if oil prices stay elevated. The country’s only refinery holds crude for just 17–18 days at current pace, per Zero Carbon Analytics.
Trump signals Iran wind-down; Brent dips below $100
Trump said overnight the US would leave Iran “in two to three weeks,” pushing Brent below $100/barrel for the first time in a week — a rare relief for Dhaka’s import bill and inflation outlook.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
123.00 ৳
▲ Taka at 52-wk high
DSEX Close (01 Apr)
5,203.96 pts
Prev. session close
Inflation
9.13%
▲ 10-month high
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude | $112–115 ▲ +55% Mar |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 ▲ +53% Mar |
| USD / BDT | 122.70 ▲ Taka weak |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% — held |
| BD Jet Fuel | Tk 202/L ▲ +80% Mar |
| US–China Tariff | 33.9% ETR ▲ probe on BD |
| RMG Export YTD | $10.69B ▲ Jan '26 |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Use This Now
Google’s NotebookLM (now on Gemini 3) supports a 1 million token context window — upload 50 PDFs, reports, or policy docs and query them all at once. For Dhaka professionals dealing with regulatory filings, BB circulars, or earnings reports, this is a free, practical research tool worth trying today: notebooklm.google.com
google labs · march 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Every morning this week I’ve woken up to a fuel crisis getting worse and an oil price getting slightly better. The gap between what the government says and what people feel at the pump is enormous. That gap is where trust goes to die — and where smart professionals should be paying attention.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWKE · DIGEST
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ · The Morning Brief · The Aura of Waking.