ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 14 MAY 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Fitch cuts Bangladesh outlook to Negative — and the government responds with its boldest investment reform in a decade
In a statement issued yesterday from Hong Kong, Fitch Ratings revised Bangladesh's outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable' while affirming the 'B+' credit rating. The trigger: significant exposure to the Middle East conflict, which threatens both energy imports (15% of total imports, ~$10 billion in 2025) and remittances (nearly 50% from the region, 3.5% of GDP). Fitch also flagged weak banking governance, a revenue-to-GDP ratio that slipped to 7.9% in FY25, and uncertainty over the IMF programme. It projects Bangladesh GDP growth at just 3.7% for FY26 and 3.5% for FY27. On the same day, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir announced the government is moving ahead with a plan to unify BIDA, BEZA, BEPZA, Hi-Tech Park Authority, MIDA and PPP Authority under a single Investment Promotion Agency — to be designed by an independent international consultancy and implemented by the elected government. The merger would create a one-stop investor platform and eliminate six parallel sets of rules, land prices, and incentive structures that currently confuse both local and foreign investors.
NBR presents FY27 budget proposals to PM today: wealth tax revival, export incentive tax doubled, digital VAT for all businesses
The National Board of Revenue is meeting Prime Minister Tarique Rahman today (Thursday) to present its FY2026-27 tax proposals. The headline proposals: reintroduce a wealth tax (replacing the existing wealth surcharge, calculated initially on net declared wealth); double the TDS on export cash incentives from 10% to 20% — which could generate ~Tk900 crore in additional revenue but has sparked sharp pushback from RMG exporters; and impose a new advance income tax on high-capacity motorcycles and battery-run rickshaws. On the business-friendly side, NBR is proposing mandatory online VAT registration for all businesses from FY27 with a concessional VAT rate for new registrants — a direct compliance expansion play. The budget is expected to be announced June 11. RMG exporters say the incentive tax hike would be "completely unreasonable" given ongoing US tariff pressure and declining incentive rates in recent years.
Agent banking handles Tk8,960cr in remittances in Q1 — FY26 total now $30,775M, up 20.9% YoY
Bangladesh Bank's latest quarterly report shows agent banking disbursed Tk8,959.8 crore in inward remittances in January–March 2026, up 15% year-on-year through 20,339 active outlets serving mostly rural households. More than 85% of outlets are in rural areas. The strong Q1 numbers sit inside an even stronger full-year picture: FY26 remittances through May 11 reached $30,775 million — up 20.9% year-on-year, with a record single-day inflow of $251 million on May 11. Eid-ul-Adha demand in late May could push monthly inflows to new records. This remittance surge is Bangladesh's most important near-term buffer against the Fitch downgrade risk — but it is the same buffer Fitch cited as vulnerable if the Middle East conflict persists.
Sequenced privatisation missing from next budget — NBR expands digital tax system to reduce discretion
The FY27 budget is expected to lack a credible privatisation agenda, despite the government's stated reform agenda, according to analysis from The Daily Star. Privatisation — sequenced and transparent — was identified as the single structural lever most likely to both reduce fiscal burden and signal reform seriousness to multilaterals. Separately, NBR is expanding its digital tax system: online tax filings, e-TDS challans, and digital audit trails are being extended to additional taxpayer categories to reduce human discretion in assessments — a direct response to persistent complaints about corruption in tax administration. The digital expansion is expected to bring more of Bangladesh's estimated 10 million TIN-holders (only ~35% currently compliant) into active filing.
ECNEC approves 9 projects worth Tk36,696cr — FAO warns global food prices rose for second month
The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council approved 9 development projects totalling Tk36,696 crore in its latest session, focused on infrastructure, energy, and social protection — providing a demand anchor for contractors and suppliers ahead of the budget. Separately, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation warned that global food prices rose for the second consecutive month in April, driven by higher cereal, dairy, and vegetable oil prices — a signal that Bangladesh's 8.24% food inflation may face upward pressure in coming months as import costs climb alongside Brent crude.
📌 Fitch + Reform Context — The 'Negative' outlook is not a downgrade — it is a warning signal. It means a downgrade to 'B' (deeper junk territory) is possible within 12–24 months if conditions deteriorate. The simultaneous push to merge six investment agencies is the right directional response. The test is execution speed: if the new IPA is not functional before LDC graduation, the reform window may close.
📌 Export Incentive Tax — Doubling the TDS on cash incentives from 10% to 20% is a fiscal convenience that may cost more in competitiveness than it earns in revenue. Bangladesh earns ~Tk900 crore in exchange for potentially signalling to buyers that operational costs are rising. RMG sector is already fighting a 19% US tariff. This is not the moment for domestic cost shocks to exporters.
Economy Watch
Data Point · Updated 14 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
BB interbank · May 12 last close · Taka stable last 30 days
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.07 ৳
Xe mid-market estimate · 14 May 8 AM via EBL rate sheet
DSEX Close — May 13
~5,205–5,243 pts
May 13 range per Investing.com · Full close pending DSE official release · May 12 confirmed close: 5,229 ▲+24
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,44,711 ৳
▲ +2,216 from Tk2,42,495 · BAJUS rate effective May 7 · No change since
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
9.04%
▲ Rose from 8.91% in Mar · Food inflation: 8.24% (Mar) · Fitch projects ~9% in FY27
Policy Rate (BB)
10.0%
Bangladesh Bank repo rate · Unchanged · Business lobby pushing for 12% lending cap
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Fitch warns NPL could rise again once forbearance lifted · Islami Bank: 51%
GDP Growth FY26
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Thursday Morning
| Brent Crude TradingEconomics / Fortune · 13 May 2026 | ~$105.79–$107/bbl ▲ · Rose for 3 straight sessions before trimming · Hormuz effectively closed 12+ weeks · IEA: inventories fell at record ~4M bbl/day in Mar–Apr · Saudi Aramco CEO: market losing ~100M barrels/week · Ceasefire "on massive life support" (Trump, May 12) |
| WTI Crude TradingEconomics · 13 May 2026 | ~$100.98–$102/bbl · Steadied after +7.6% rally over prior 3 sessions · Crude inventories fell 4.3M barrels (EIA, double expectations) · US gasoline avg $4.52/gallon · 52-week range: $54.98–$117.63 |
|
US PPI — April 2026 (RELEASED YESTERDAY) BLS / CNBC · Released 13 May 2026 |
Headline PPI +6.0% YoY (est. 4.9%) · +1.4% MoM — largest monthly jump since Mar 2022 · Core PPI: +5.2% YoY, +1.0% MoM (est. +0.3%) · Energy +7.8% MoM · Services +1.2% MoM · "Inflation is sticky and accelerating" — TradeStation · Economists now see CPI above 4% in May report |
| US CPI — April 2026 BLS · Released 12 May 2026 | Headline CPI +3.8% YoY (beat 3.7%) · +0.6% MoM · Core CPI: +2.8% YoY, +0.4% MoM · Gasoline +28.4% YoY · Food +3.2% YoY · Real wages fell 0.3% YoY — first decline since Apr 2023 · Highest headline since May 2023 |
| Wall St — 13 May close TheStreet · 13 May 2026 | S&P 500 7,444 ▲ +0.58% (new record close) · Nasdaq 26,402 ▲ +1.20% (new record) · Dow ~49,636 ▼ –0.25% · Russell 2000 2,844 ▲ +0.07% · Hot PPI absorbed; Nvidia +2.5% (Huang joins Trump–Xi summit delegation) · VIX: 18.06 |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve · Apr 29, 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold) · Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair · After PPI shock: 10Y Treasury hit 4.473% (2026 high) · 20Y and 30Y eclipsed 5% · Zero cuts priced in for 2026; BofA sees no cut until H2 2027 |
| Bitcoin CoinDesk · 13 May 2026 | ~$80,000 · Briefly dipped below $80K on hot PPI · Recovered to ~$80,200 · Down 0.8% in 24hrs · Crypto market cap ~$2.76T · $63M in longs liquidated at dip · Solana –2%, XRP –1% |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran War EIA / TradingEconomics · 13 May 2026 | Effectively closed — Week 12+ · Iran rejected US naval blockade end demand · Trump met NSC on potential return to military operations · IEA: market could remain severely undersupplied until Oct even if conflict ends soon · Iranian export shipments now stalled — first sustained interruption since conflict started |
| BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka · May 2026 | 19% base rate · ART implementation talks concluded May 5–7 · Trump appealed court ruling on Section 122 tariff — if appeal fails, BD exporters may reclaim 10% paid since Aug 2025 · Today's NBR budget meeting could signal how BD plans to respond to ongoing trade pressure |
| US–China Trade / Xi Summit TradingEconomics / TheStreet · 13 May 2026 | Trump–Xi summit ongoing in Beijing · Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined US delegation · Trump: trade talks take precedence over Iran · US tariffs on China ~45% · BD RMG still ranked #2 US apparel supplier but capturing zero incremental share from China's exit — Vietnam and Cambodia winning that race |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA Warning IEA Oil Market Report · May 13, 2026 | IEA: largest oil supply shock on record · Inventories fell at record pace in Mar–Apr · Market may stay severely undersupplied until Oct · Goldman: energy shock inflationary for all of 2026 · JPMorgan: "demand destruction beginning as consumers adjust" · EIA projects Brent at $89/bbl by Q4 if Hormuz reopens |
| Asian Markets TradingEconomics · 14 May AM | Tracking Wall St Wednesday surge; Nasdaq/S&P new record highs positive for EM risk-on · Japan Nikkei supported by AI/semiconductor rally (Nvidia CEO Xi summit presence) · South Asian EM under dual pressure: strong USD + ongoing oil shock · Watch: DSE opens today post-Fitch negative outlook |
| India–BD Relation Daily Star / ADB | India supplying diesel via pipeline amid LNG shortage · BD seeking $3B additional ADB budget support for energy overruns · Hormuz closure driving energy import bill up est. $4.8B annually · ADB $100M pension loan adds to BD–multilateral partnership track |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Anthropic quietly shipped a feature called "Dreaming" for Claude Managed Agents on May 6 — and it solves a problem that anyone building AI-powered workflows in Bangladesh will recognise. The problem: AI agents are sharp within a single session but forget everything when the session ends. You have to re-explain context every time. Dreaming is a scheduled background process that runs between sessions, reviewing past conversations, extracting recurring patterns, pruning outdated or conflicting instructions, and updating the agent's memory store automatically. The agent gets better without any manual intervention. The practical translation for a Dhaka finance or compliance team using AI agents for document review, credit analysis, or client onboarding: you no longer have to rebuild context each day. An agent running Dreaming will remember that your internal templates use a specific approval hierarchy, that one client always requires dual sign-off, or that your team prefers Bangla output for internal notes. Over two weeks of use, the agent measurably improves. If you are building on Claude's API, Dreaming is now available in research preview. For non-developers, this is the strongest sign yet that the next generation of AI tools will feel less like calculators and more like colleagues that remember.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Fitch said 'Negative' yesterday morning and by the afternoon the Commerce Minister was at a press conference announcing the biggest investment agency reform in a decade. I do not think that is a coincidence. What I noticed is how the statement was framed: "implementation will be left to the elected government." That sentence is doing a lot of work. It means the structural intent is real but the execution risk is on the next political cycle. For a foreign investor doing due diligence on Bangladesh today, that sentence is both reassuring and insufficient. Reassuring because it signals cross-party policy continuity. Insufficient because the foreign investor has heard this language before. The honest question this morning is not whether the merger is the right idea — it clearly is — but whether Bangladesh has the institutional patience to build a truly independent IPA that does not immediately become a patronage vehicle for the ruling coalition. That is the test that comes after the design consultancy finishes its report. The design is the easy part.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 13 MAY 2026
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Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh's first institutional venture capital platform launches — Tk425 crore, 39 banks, first investments by year-end
Bangladesh Startup Investment Company PLC (BSIC) officially launched Tuesday at the Radisson Blu, Dhaka — the country's first institutionally governed VC platform backed by 39 commercial banks with committed capital of Tk425 crore ($35 million). The inaugural fund, "Onkur Bangladesh Fund 1," targets seed, late-seed and Series-A startups, with banks contributing 1% of annual net profits creating a recurring mechanism rather than a one-time pool. Finance Minister Amir Khosru inaugurated the event and pledged no political interference. BSIC aims to complete its first three investments before end-2026. The context that makes this matter: since 2010, Bangladesh startups raised over $1.1 billion — but less than 7% from domestic sources. Local funding crashed 95% year-on-year by 2024. BSIC is the structural response.
FY27 Budget signal: excise duty threshold on bank deposits may double to Tk5 lakh — ADB pledges $100M for Universal Pension
Two policy moves from Tuesday signal direction ahead of the June 11 budget announcement. First, the government is likely to raise the excise duty exemption on bank deposits from the current Tk3 lakh to Tk5 lakh — relieving roughly 40 lakh depositors in that bracket. NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan confirmed the intention but said no final decision has been made; the government earns nearly Tk6,000 crore annually from bank excise duties. Second, at a high-level pension meeting chaired by Finance Minister Khosru, officials confirmed the ADB has pledged a $100 million concessional loan to strengthen the Universal Pension Scheme. As of April 30, only 377,545 people had enrolled across all four schemes (Probash, Progoti, Surokkha, Samata) with Tk256 crore in contributions — far short of targets. The minister directed authorities to enroll at least one family member from each of Bangladesh's 4 crore families by 2030. Proposals include a Shariah-based pension tier.
DSE breaks five-day losing streak as turnover surges 54% to Tk1,101cr — Remittances up 56.4% in first 11 days of May
The Dhaka Stock Exchange snapped a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as the DSEX gained 24 points to close at 5,229. Total turnover surged 54% to Tk1,101 crore — crossing the Tk1,000 crore mark for the first time in recent weeks — though most of the volume was driven by a single block transaction: BRAC Bank shares worth Tk335 crore in the block market. Market breadth was positive: 188 stocks advanced, 138 declined. Separately, Bangladesh Bank data released Tuesday showed remittance inflows surged 56.4% year-on-year in the first 11 days of May, reaching $1,442 million. A record single-day inflow of $251 million was recorded on May 11. FY26 year-to-date remittances now stand at $30,775 million — up 20.9% from the same period last year.
Business leaders call for 6-month NPL overdue window and 12% lending rate cap — former adviser claims interim govt discussed US trade deal with BNP-Jamaat
The Bangladesh Association of Banks and business chambers renewed pressure on BB Tuesday, urging adoption of a six-month grace period before loans are classified as overdue (currently three months) and a lending rate ceiling of 12% to ease borrowing costs for industry. In a separate development, former adviser Farida Khanam claimed that during the interim government, discussions with BNP and Jamaat included terms related to a US trade deal framework — a claim that could complicate the current elected government's position in ongoing tariff negotiations with Washington. BD's current 19% base tariff rate faces review, with USTR implementation talks having concluded May 5-7.
📌 Budget Context — The excise duty increase to Tk5 lakh, if passed June 11, would relieve 40 lakh small depositors. NBR earns ~Tk200 crore from this bracket — a politically easy give ahead of an election cycle. The harder ask from business: cut lending rates and extend NPL classification windows. Both are in front of Bangladesh Bank, not Parliament.
📌 BSIC Reality Check — The fund's first investments come after appointing a CIO and investment committee in Q3. Bangladesh's startup deal count fell from 94 in 2021 to single digits in 2024. Tk425 crore is real capital — but the institutional capability to deploy it at venture standards is still being built.
Economy Watch
Data Point · Updated 13 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
122.93 ৳
BB interbank · May 11 close at 122.925 · Taka stable last 30 days
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.84 ৳
Xe mid-market · 13 May 8 AM estimate via EBL rate sheet
DSEX Close — May 12
5,229 pts
▲ +24 pts · +0.47% · 5-day losing streak snapped · Turnover: Tk1,101cr (+54%)
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,44,711 ৳
▲ +2,216 from Tk2,42,495 · BAJUS rate effective May 7
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
9.04%
▲ Rose from 8.91% in Mar · Food inflation: 8.24% (Mar)
Policy Rate (BB)
10.0%
Bangladesh Bank repo rate · Unchanged · Lending rate market-based; business leaders pushing for 12% cap
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) via rescheduling · Islami Bank alone: 51%
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Wednesday Morning
| Brent Crude TradingEconomics · 12 May close | ~$107/bbl ▲ · WTI climbed above $101 on Tue · EIA forecast: Brent ~$106/bbl in May–June · Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for 11+ weeks · IEA: largest supply shock on record · Saudi Aramco CEO: market losing ~100M barrels/week |
| WTI Crude TradingEconomics · 12 May | ~$101/bbl ▲ +3.4% Mon · 52-week range: $54.98–$117.63 · Iran rejected US naval blockade end demand; Trump mulling military resumption; gasoline avg $4.52/gallon US (AAA) |
|
US CPI — April 2026 (RELEASED YESTERDAY) BLS · Released 12 May, 8:30 AM ET |
Headline CPI +3.8% YoY (beat 3.7% consensus) · +0.6% MoM · Core CPI: +2.8% YoY, +0.4% MoM · Energy +3.8% drove 40%+ of the gain · Gasoline +28.4% YoY · Food +3.2% YoY · Highest headline since May 2023 · Real wages fell 0.5% MoM — no rate cuts expected in 2026 |
| Wall St — 12 May close CNBC / TheStreet · 12 May 2026 | S&P 500 ~7,389 ▼ –0.16% · Dow 49,760 ▲ +0.11% · Nasdaq ~25,900 ▼ ~–1% · Hot CPI triggered tech sell-off; defensives (Walmart +2.15%, UnitedHealth +2.06%) offset losses · VIX: 18.38 |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve · Apr 29, 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold) · Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair · CME FedWatch: zero cuts priced in for 2026 · Hot April CPI cements no-cut consensus · BofA: no cuts until H2 2027 |
| Bitcoin Fortune / CoinDesk · 12 May AM | ~$80,600–$80,900 · Down 1.2% after hot CPI · Holding $80K support · Down ~22% over past year · Market cap ~$1.33T · Kevin Warsh's pro-Bitcoin reputation provides mild tailwind |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran EIA STEO / Reuters · May 12, 2026 | Effectively closed · Week 11+ · EIA assumes closure until late May, partial recovery June · 10.5M b/d Gulf production shut in April · Trump discussing military resumption with NSC · Iran demands end to naval blockade + sanctions relief. No deal in sight |
| BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka · May 2026 | 19% base rate · ART implementation talks concluded May 5–7 · Trump appealed May 8 against court ruling on Section 122 tariff — if appeal fails, BD exporters may reclaim 10% tariff paid since Aug 2025 · Former adviser claims interim govt pre-negotiated terms with BNP-Jamaat — politically sensitive |
| US–China Trade Yahoo Finance · 12 May 2026 | US tariffs on China ~45% · Trump–Xi Beijing summit ongoing · BD RMG ranked #2 US apparel supplier but captured zero incremental Q1 share from China's exit — Vietnam and Cambodia winning that race · Watch for any tariff signal from the summit |
| India–BD Relation Daily Star / ADB | India supplying diesel via pipeline amid LNG shortage · BD seeking $3B additional ADB budget support for energy overruns · Hormuz closure driving energy import bill up an estimated $4.8B annually · ADB $100M pension loan adds to BD–multilateral partnership track |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA IEA / Reuters · May 12, 2026 | IEA: largest oil supply shock on record · Goldman: energy shock is inflationary for 2026 globally · JPMorgan economists: "demand destruction beginning as consumers adjust to rising energy prices" · Supply buffers eroding — EIA projects Brent at $89/bbl by Q4 if Hormuz reopens |
| Asian Markets TradingEconomics · 13 May AM | Tracking Wall St mixed close; hot US CPI headwind for EM equities · Japan Nikkei supported by AI earnings momentum · Copper near record $6.46 · South Asian EM markets facing dual pressure from strong USD + oil shock · Bangladesh DSE outperformed on Tuesday after 5-day dip |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6 "Advisor Tool" — now in beta on the Claude Platform — introduces a two-model architecture where a smaller, faster Sonnet handles execution while the larger Opus model acts as a strategic advisor, reviewing outputs before they ship. The practical translation for Dhaka professionals: if you are using Claude via API for financial analysis, credit memo drafts, or any structured document workflow, this architecture cuts cost and latency while adding a senior-review step you used to have to prompt manually. The advisor model only triggers when it would meaningfully change the output — not on every call. For bank product teams and compliance analysts building on Claude, the specific win is on multi-language coding tasks: TBS benchmarks show Sonnet+Advisor outperforming Sonnet-solo across nine languages. The beta header to enable it:
anthropic-beta: advisor-tool-2026-03-01. If your team is still using single-model API calls for complex financial workflows, test this week.ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Yesterday the US printed its hottest CPI in three years. Wall Street sold off — briefly — then recovered almost completely. Stocks ended flat. This is the market telling you that it does not believe the energy inflation is structural; it believes Hormuz will reopen and the shock will pass. I am not sure that bet is right. What I am more interested in this Wednesday morning is what happened here in Dhaka: 39 banks launched a Tk425 crore startup fund while the same banking sector carries Tk30+ lakh crore in bad loans. The question is not whether BSIC's capital is real — it is. The question is whether the same institutions that produced Islami Bank's Tk94,000 crore NPL problem have built the internal culture to make rigorous VC decisions. Venture capital is not a charity window. It requires the courage to say no to politically connected founders. That test has not come yet. The optimistic read is that BSIC's international advisors and transparent mandate create a different incentive structure. I hope so. Bangladesh's entrepreneurs deserve better than another instrument captured before it deploys.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 12 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Finance Minister breaks with IMF — "conditions not suitable for our economy or our people"
Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury made Bangladesh's most direct public confrontation with the IMF on Sunday, saying the conditions attached to the ongoing $4.7 billion loan programme are "not suitable for Bangladesh's economy or its people." Speaking at a Bonik Barta discussion on rebuilding the economy amid global instability, he said the government cannot comply with all IMF demands because "we are an elected government and remain accountable to the public." The minister did not elaborate on which specific conditions are being rejected, but the IMF's three core demands — full removal of tax exemptions and subsidies, and a market-based exchange rate — all carry direct cost-of-living implications. Talks are ongoing and may continue for 15–20 more days, he said. The IMF has already blocked the combined $1.3B fifth-sixth tranche due by June, leaving Bangladesh with $1.86B uncollected before the programme expires in January 2027. Separately, Bangladesh Bank is simultaneously buying dollars from commercial banks — purchasing $45 million on Sunday at Tk 122.75 — to keep reserves from slipping further after the $1.51B ACU payment on May 7.
Bangladesh's banking crisis deepens on three fronts — former directors may return, Islami Bank's bad loans hit Tk94,322cr, owners seek NPL cap relaxation
Three simultaneous developments yesterday paint a worsening picture of Bangladesh's banking sector. First, the Bangladesh Association of Banks (BAB) formally warned BB Governor Mostaqur Rahman that the Bank Resolution Act 2026 creates a legal pathway for former owners — including those who allegedly looted banks — to return by paying just 7.5% upfront of government funds injected, with the remaining 92.5% paid over two years. BAB chairman Abdul Hai Sarker said: "People know who took money from the banks. If they are allowed to return, public confidence will weaken further." Five former directors of Social Islami Bank have already applied to reclaim it. Second, Islami Bank Bangladesh disclosed that its classified loans surged 44% to Tk94,322 crore in 2025 — the highest bad loan volume ever recorded by a single Bangladeshi bank, representing 51% of its total portfolio and 17% of the entire sector's NPLs. Its provision shortfall is Tk84,615 crore; without BB forbearance, its actual loss would have been Tk84,507 crore. Third, the BAB simultaneously wrote to BB requesting the NPL eligibility cap for refinance schemes be raised from current levels to 20% and general provisioning for rescheduled loans be cut from 5% to 1% — moves that would ease access to cheap credit for high-NPL banks at the cost of tighter safeguards.
Sources: TBS — "Bank owners fear return of former directors," May 11, 2026 · TBS — "Islami Bank's bad loans soar 44% to record Tk94,322cr," May 11, 2026 · TBS — "Bank owners seek refinance liquidity support by easing 20% NPL cap," May 11, 2026 · The Daily Star — BAB opposes former owner return, May 12, 2026
Bangladesh Bank launches commercial e-Loan framework — Tk50,000 cap, 100% digital, no branch visit required
Bangladesh Bank issued comprehensive guidelines on Sunday for the commercial launch of "e-Loan" by all scheduled banks — a 100% end-to-end digital lending product covering onboarding, authentication, disbursement, monitoring, and recovery entirely via smartphone, with no physical branch visit. The cap is set at Tk50,000 per borrower for the first year. Interest rates remain market-based; where banks use BB's refinancing facility (BRPD Circular 11/2022), the lending rate cannot exceed 9%. The initiative targets underserved and marginal populations who have been excluded from formal banking. All data must be stored in Bangladesh-based data centres under the Personal Information Security Act, 2026, and the National Data Protection Act, 2026.
Sources: Dhaka Tribune — "e-Loan facility opens up," May 11, 2026 · BSS — BB guidelines for commercial e-Loan launch, May 11, 2026 · The Daily Star — "Banks cleared to launch e-loan up to Tk50,000," May 12, 2026
📌 Opinion Watch — FY27 Budget Debate (Financial Express)
On tax burden: With April inflation rising back to 9.04%, business chambers are pressing the NBR to raise the tax-free income threshold from Tk3.75 lakh to Tk5 lakh in the FY27 budget. Experts argue Bangladesh should move toward a family-based taxation model — one that accounts for dependent children, elderly parents, and unemployed siblings — rather than taxing individual gross income alone. [FE Opinion, May 9, 2026]
On package VAT: The government is reportedly considering reintroducing "package VAT" — a fixed annual VAT for small retail traders abolished in 2019. A Financial Express analysis argues the move is unnecessary: traders with annual turnover below Tk30 lakh are already VAT-exempt under current law. Package VAT's peak contribution was only Tk238 crore/year (FY2016) — a rounding error against total VAT collections. The real case is for better enforcement, not a new regime. [FE Opinion, May 9, 2026]
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.75 ৳
BB interbank purchase rate · 11 May 2026 · +45 paisa from 122.30 (Apr 15)
DSEX (last close, 11 May)
5205.26 pts
▼ -15.68 pts · -0.30039% · Last update 11 May, 2:30 PM
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
Effective 7 May · Unchanged through 12 May
Inflation Rate (Apr '26, BBS)
9.04%
▲ Rising again — up from Mar's 8.71% · Energy & supply chain pressure
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · via rescheduling · Islami Bank alone: 51%
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Monday Morning
| Brent Crude TradingEconomics · Live, 12 May 2026 | $104.97/bbl ▲ +0.73% today · +5.65% past month · +57.54% vs year ago · Trump called Iran's peace response "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" Sunday — Hormuz closure now entering 11th week. Saudi Aramco CEO: market losing ~100 million barrels/week |
| WTI Crude TradingEconomics · 11 May close | $98.71/bbl ▲ +3.45% Monday · Jumped over $97–99 range after Trump rejected Iran's proposal · US gasoline now averaging $4.52/gallon (AAA) · Trump announced temporary suspension of federal gasoline tax |
| Strait of Hormuz TradingEconomics / IMO · 12 May | Effectively closed · 11th week · Drone attacks struck cargo vessel near Qatar Monday · UAE and Kuwait intercepted hostile drones · ~20,000 seafarers stranded · IEA: largest supply shock on record. Full recovery 90–120 days minimum even if deal reached today |
| Iran War / Ceasefire Yahoo Finance / CNBC · 11 May 2026 | Ceasefire on "massive life support" — Trump on Truth Social Sunday: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Iran offered to transfer enriched uranium to third country but refused to dismantle nuclear infrastructure. Netanyahu: "conflict with Iran is not over." No deal |
| IEA / Saudi Aramco IEA / Aramco CEO via TE · May 12 | IEA: largest oil supply shock on record · Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser: market losing ~100M barrels/week · Prolonged disruption could delay normalization to 2027 · Refined product shortages sharpest in South Asia |
| Wall St (11 May close) CNBC · 11 May 2026 | S&P 500 +0.19% → 7,412.84 (new record) · Dow +0.19% → 49,704.47 · Nasdaq +0.1% → 26,274.13 (new record) · Copper hit record close at $6.46 · 10Y Treasury yield rose to 4.41% · Stocks rose despite oil +3% and ceasefire collapse |
| US CPI — Today BLS · Tue 12 May, 8:30 AM ET | April CPI releases TODAY 8:30 AM ET · March CPI: 3.3% YoY · Consensus forecast: 3.7% YoY, +0.6% MoM · Core forecast: +0.4% MoM · S&P Global chief economist forecasts 5% headline CPI for full 2026 · Result will set tone for Warsh's first week as Fed chair |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve · Apr 29, 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd hold; historic 4-dissent vote) · Kevin Warsh takes over Thursday May 15 · Market assigns 45% chance of no cuts all of 2026 · BofA: no cuts until H2 2027. CPI today is the key input |
| Trump → China Today Yahoo Finance · 12 May 2026 | Trump begins China trip today — meeting Xi Jinping · 16 executives invited including Elon Musk and Tim Cook · Agenda: technology, rare earths, trade · Could shift US–China tariff trajectory. BD exporters watching closely for any tariff relief signal |
| Bitcoin Yahoo Finance · 12 May AM | $82,227 ▲ +1.95% · VIX at 17.19 · Recovering from $80K floor. Down 7.2% YTD and 22% over past year despite recent rebound |
| US–China Trade Yahoo Finance · 12 May 2026 | US tariffs on China ~45% · Trump–Xi summit today in Beijing · BD RMG ranked #2 US apparel supplier but captured zero incremental Q1 share from China's exit · Vietnam and Cambodia are winning that race |
| BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka · May 4 | 19% base rate · ART implementation talks completed May 5–7 · Trump appealed May 8 against court ruling on Section 122 tariff — if appeal fails, BD exporters may claim refunds on 10% tariff paid since Aug 2025 |
| India–BD Relation Daily Star / ADB | India supplying diesel via pipeline amid LNG shortage · BD seeking $3B additional ADB budget support for energy overruns · Trump's gas tax suspension in the US may reduce global refined product pressure marginally |
| Asian Markets TradingEconomics · 12 May AM | Tracking Wall St record close; crude +3% Monday a headwind · Japan Nikkei near record highs on AI earnings · Copper at record $6.46 signals strong industrial demand · US–China summit today is a key catalyst to watch |
| Israel–Lebanon Yahoo Finance / Reuters · 11 May | Iran's foreign ministry linked Lebanon ceasefire to broader Iran deal conditions — Hormuz, sanctions, frozen assets. Netanyahu: "not over." Lebanon track stalled pending Iran resolution |
| Saudi / RMG YTD Aramco / TradingEconomics · 12 May | Saudi Aramco warning: market losing 100M barrels/week — "normalization could slip to 2027" · Iraq offering steep Hormuz-transit discounts · BD garment YTD tracking strong on China diversion despite Q1 share miss |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Bangladesh Bank's e-Loan framework — launched yesterday — opens a lane for AI-powered credit scoring to finally work in Bangladesh. The directive requires fully digital onboarding and allows banks to use alternative data sources for creditworthiness assessment, not just traditional CIB reports. For fintech founders, bank product teams, and credit analysts in Dhaka: this is the signal to build. The Tk50,000 cap and 9% rate ceiling are modest for now, but the legal and regulatory foundation is in place. The practical move this week: if you are in financial services or fintech, read the BB circular (BRPD) and identify the data sources your institution already has that could serve as scoring inputs — mobile recharge history, MFS transaction records, utility payments. The framework rewards those who move first.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Monday night in Washington, Trump posted "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" on Truth Social after reading Iran's peace proposal. Oil hit $105. Stocks still closed at record highs. That contradiction is the sentence that defines this market right now. Here in Dhaka this Tuesday morning, Brent is at $104.97 — up 57% from a year ago. Bangladesh's Finance Minister publicly says the IMF conditions are not suitable for our people. He may be right. But Islami Bank just disclosed Tk94,000 crore in bad loans. The same morning that he pushed back on IMF conditionality, Bangladesh's own banking association was writing to the central bank asking for the NPL cap to be relaxed. You cannot hold both of those positions simultaneously and expect anyone to take the reform commitment seriously. Today two things happen at once: the US April CPI prints at 8:30 AM Eastern — forecast 3.7% — and Trump lands in Beijing to meet Xi. Both events will move markets that directly affect Bangladesh's export economics and energy cost. Watch both.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 11 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh overtakes China in US apparel rankings — but fails to capture the opportunity
Bangladesh moved into second place among US apparel suppliers in Q1 2026, overtaking China for the first time — with exports of $2.04 billion against China's $1.70 billion in January–March. But here is the uncomfortable truth: Bangladesh's own exports to the US fell 8.38% over the same period, while the overall US apparel market contracted nearly 12% year-on-year to $17.76 billion. The "win" over China is a statistical side-effect of China's collapse (down 53%), not a capture of market share. The countries actually gaining from China's exit are Vietnam (+2.77%) and Cambodia (+18%) — both of which benefit from deeper backward linkage to Chinese raw materials and yarn. Bangladesh lacks this. Industry experts point to the same structural gap: without man-made fibre capacity and faster backward integration, Bangladesh will watch rivals absorb the orders that Chinese factories can no longer fill. Export growth is expected to remain subdued until at least July 2026.
Bangladesh's premium consumer market is quietly collapsing — inflation above 8% for four years has broken the middle class
From Gulshan to Dhanmondi, Chattogram to Uttara, retailers selling imported and premium goods are describing the same scene: empty footfall, unsold stock, and shelves that once held Gillette razors, Ferrero chocolates and Oral-B toothbrushes now sitting half-empty or replaced with local substitutes. P&G — present in Bangladesh for nearly three decades — ended its key distribution arrangements in early 2025. Inflation has stayed above 8% for nearly four years; wages have trailed prices for 50 consecutive months. Prices of many imported goods have doubled or more due to a combination of taka depreciation, LC restrictions, and duty revisions — a skincare item once assessed at $8/kg for customs is now valued at $20/kg, pushing total duty incidence to 130–140%. Lifestyle chains like Sundora are offering discounts of up to 70%. Luxury watch retailer Timezone reports declining mall footfall. Even upper-middle-income professionals — once the bedrock of premium spending — are now hesitating. This is what four years of inflation looks like on the ground.
↩ Last month in brief — Key economic headlines from April 2026
IMF blocked the $1.3B tranche at the Spring Meetings (Apr), citing failures in revenue, banking reform, subsidies and exchange rate flexibility — $1.86B remains uncollected before the programme expires Jan 2027. · Forex reserves (BPM6) crossed $30B for the first time since 2022, driven by record remittance inflows. · All three LNG long-term suppliers invoked force majeure (Qatar, Oman, US), pushing Bangladesh onto the volatile spot market at ~$21/MMBtu — double the contracted price. · Inflation eased to 8.71% in March from February's 9.13% peak, though April is estimated above 9% again due to energy costs. · NPLs fell to 30.6% (Dec 2025) from the 35.73% September peak via rescheduling — economists call it cosmetic relief, not structural recovery.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.25 ৳ buying
Selling: 123.25 · DBBL SL 81/2026 · Mon 11 May AM
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.98 ৳ buying
Selling: 18.23 · DBBL SL 81/2026 · Mon 11 May AM
DSEX (close, 10 May)
5,220.95 pts
▼ −13.15 pts · −0.25% · Last update 10 May, 2:30 PM
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 vs prev · Effective 7 May · Unchanged 11 May
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from Feb's 9.13% · Food infl: 8.24%
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · via rescheduling
GDP Growth FY26
3.5–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Monday Morning
| Brent Crude TradingEconomics · May 8 close | $101.29/bbl ▲ +1% Fri; weekly loss of ~6% as Trump insisted ceasefire holds despite fresh US–Iran clashes. Iran fired on UAE twice this week; US struck two Iranian tankers violating naval blockade |
| WTI Crude CNBC · May 8, 2026 | $95.42/bbl ▲ +marginal Fri; weekly loss >6%. ANZ: "risk of peace deal breaking down will keep markets volatile" |
| Strait of Hormuz Al Jazeera · May 5, 2026 | Effectively closed · ~11th week · ~14M bpd disrupted · ~20,000 seafarers stranded on ~2,000 vessels · IMO: "no precedent for the stranding of so many seafarers in the modern age" |
| Iran War / Ceasefire CNBC · May 8, 2026 | Ceasefire technically in force; US struck two Iranian tankers Friday. Iran fired missiles and drones at UAE twice this week. Trump: "just a love tap." Tehran awaiting US counter-proposal through Pakistan — no deal reached over weekend |
| IEA Warning IEA via TradingEconomics | War disrupting ~14M bpd from global supply · Post-conflict recovery will be slow: infrastructure damage, insurer reluctance, mine-clearing backlog. Chevron CEO: "fuel shortages a growing concern in some regions" |
| Goldman Sachs Goldman note via CNBC | Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 days by end-May. Sharpest product scarcity risks: South Africa, India, Thailand, Taiwan. Refined product buffers "being depleted rapidly" |
| Wall St (8 May close) Yahoo Finance · May 8 close | S&P 500 +0.84% → 7,398.93 (record) · Dow +0.02% → 49,609.16 · Nasdaq +1.71% → 26,247 · AI infrastructure and earnings drove weekly gains; week's best: +2.4% S&P |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve · Apr 29, 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold; historic 4-member dissent, first since 1992) · New Chair Kevin Warsh takes over Thursday, May 15. Markets price zero cuts for rest of 2026. BofA: "no cuts expected until H2 2027" |
| US CPI (this week) BLS · Release: Tue 12 May, 8:30 AM ET | March CPI: 3.3% YoY (energy +10.9%, gasoline +21.2%) · April CPI due tomorrow (Tue May 12) · Forecast: ~3.7–3.8% YoY · Core CPI forecast: ~2.7%. JPMorgan: inflation stays above 3% until Feb 2027 regardless of scenario |
| Bitcoin Yahoo Finance · May 10 futures | ~$81,595 ▲ +1.15% Sunday futures; recovering after dipping below $80K on Iran strikes last week. VIX at 17.19 |
| US–China Trade Reuters / TradingEconomics | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD RMG exporters positioning for order diversion. Garment investment into Bangladesh tracking higher this quarter on China tariff opportunity |
| BD–US Tariff US Embassy Dhaka · May 4 | 19% base rate · ART implementation talks held May 5–7 (USTR Brendan Lynch, Dhaka) · Legal challenge to ART before High Court. Zero-tariff on US-cotton apparel terms still being finalised |
| India–BD Relation Daily Star / ADB reports | India supplying diesel via pipeline · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy cost overruns · West Bengal state elections closely watched in Dhaka |
| Asian Markets Yahoo Finance · May 9–10 | Japan Nikkei at record highs on AI earnings and ceasefire extension optimism · Monday open expected to track Wall St record close; crude futures +3% weekend suggests oil pressure returning |
| Israel–Lebanon CNBC / Reuters · Apr 9 | Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon · Fragile parallel front to Iran ceasefire — no deal yet. Iran's Parliament Speaker accused US of violating 3 elements of the 10-point truce proposal |
| Saudi / RMG YTD Bloomberg / CNBC · May 5 | Iraq offering steep crude discounts for Hormuz-transit buyers · BD garment exports tracking strong YTD on China order diversion |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's ChatGPT for Excel and Google Sheets became generally available on May 5 for all plan levels, including free. You type plain-language instructions in a sidebar inside your spreadsheet — "build a 3-year cash flow model," "find the error in this VLOOKUP," "summarise this 40-tab sales file" — and it edits your cells directly. No copy-paste. Runs on GPT-5.5. For Dhaka's finance, consulting, and operations professionals who spend hours in spreadsheets, this is the most immediately practical AI release of 2026. The productivity gap between people who learn this early and those who do not will be visible to managers within weeks. How to access: Excel ribbon → Add-ins → search "ChatGPT", or sheets.new → Extensions → ChatGPT for Sheets.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Monday morning. Two stories from TBS this weekend sat next to each other on the homepage and almost nobody is connecting them. Bangladesh has overtaken China in the US apparel rankings — and in the same data, our own exports fell 8.38%. We ranked higher because China collapsed, not because we gained. Vietnam and Cambodia took the orders. Meanwhile, the premium consumer market at home is in a quiet recession. Shops in Gulshan are running 70% discounts. P&G left. Shelves that used to carry Ferrero chocolates are now empty or replaced. Inflation has been above 8% for four years, and wages have trailed for 50 months in a row. The same economy that cannot capture an export opportunity abroad is losing purchasing power at home. Both stories point to the same structural gap: Bangladesh needs to move up the value chain — in garments, in consumer goods, in everything — and it is not moving fast enough. Kevin Warsh takes over the US Federal Reserve on Thursday. The April CPI prints tomorrow. A big week for global numbers. But the numbers that matter most are already on the page.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 10 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh is in an "energy trap" — $12 billion in fuel imports annually, and the renewable transition is stalled
Business leaders and energy experts delivered a blunt diagnosis this week: Bangladesh has moved past a crisis into a structural "energy trap." The country spends ~$12 billion annually on fuel imports — and with global prices elevated by the Hormuz disruption, that bill is projected to rise by a further $4.8 billion, equivalent to 1.1% of GDP. The Bangladesh Chamber of Industries warned of a daily electricity shortfall of 1,500–2,000 MW, with 71 of 143 power plants either idle or underperforming. The structural failure is a decade of delay on renewables: Bangladesh needs 760 MW of new renewable capacity annually to hit its 2030 targets, but only 358 MW was in the pipeline as of February. Renewables account for just 2.3% of power generation against a global average of 33.8%. IEEFA has warned that additional LNG subsidies for April–June could exceed $1.07 billion — at a time when the IMF is pressing Dhaka to cut subsidies, not expand them.
US trade envoy visits Dhaka — ART implementation talks, BD garment sector seeks tariff clarity
A US Trade Representative delegation led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch visited Dhaka on May 5–7 — the first US trade envoy visit since the BNP government took office in February. Talks focused on implementing the US–Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART). Under the deal, Bangladesh has committed to import significant US agricultural volumes including 700,000 tonnes of wheat annually for five years, plus soybeans and cotton. Bangladesh's garment exporters used the visit to press for clarity on how the promised near-zero reciprocal tariff will apply to apparel made with American cotton inputs. The current BD–US tariff stands at 19%, down from the threatened 37%, but terms remain contested. Commerce Minister Muktadir said the agreement must generate "win-win" outcomes; a legal challenge to the deal's constitutional validity is simultaneously before the High Court.
IMF blocks Bangladesh's $1.3 billion tranche — reform failures cited, new programme proposed
The IMF declined to disburse the next $1.3 billion tranche of Bangladesh's $5.5 billion loan programme at the April IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, citing four failures: weak revenue collection, poor banking sector discipline, slow subsidy reduction, and no market-based exchange rate. The IMF's Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan said publicly: "With a new government holding a significant majority, this is the right time to undertake ambitious reforms — we will wait to see how they respond." Bangladesh still has $1.86 billion uncollected before the programme expires in January 2027. The IMF has proposed negotiating a new programme with stricter conditions. The government rejected media reports of a "suspension," calling them "completely false" — but acknowledged key issues remain unresolved, with further talks planned within 15–20 days of the Spring Meetings.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
BB interbank close · Fri 8 May · Market closed Sun
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.06 ৳
Xe mid-market · 10 May 8 AM
DSEX (last close, 7 May)
5,234.10 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · Last update 7 May, 2:30 PM
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Effective 7 May 2026
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 8.9%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ ~25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (8 May) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Down ~7% on week as Trump confirmed ceasefire held despite US–Iran clashes; floor above $100 holds |
| WTI Crude (8 May) | ~$94.7/bbl ▲ US gasoline stocks down 12 consecutive weeks; distillate fuel stocks down 9 weeks |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · ~10th week · ~14M bpd disrupted · ~20,000 seafarers stranded on ~2,000 vessels — IMO calls it unprecedented |
| Iran War / Ceasefire | Ceasefire technically in place; US struck Iranian military targets after Hormuz attacks. Iran sent updated peace proposal via Pakistan. Trump: "not satisfied." Awaiting counter-response this week |
| IEA Warning | War disrupting ~14M bpd · Post-conflict recovery will be slow: infrastructure damage, insurer reluctance, mine-clearing required |
| Goldman Sachs | Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 days by end-May · Sharpest product shortage risks: South Asia, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Wall St (8 May close) | S&P 500 +0.84% → 7,398 (record) · Dow +0.02% → 49,609 · Nasdaq +1.71% → 26,247 · AI infrastructure stocks led all week |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold, 4 dissents — first since 1992) · New Chair Kevin Warsh takes over May 15 |
| Bitcoin (8 May) | ~$80,350 Dipped below $80K briefly on US–Iran strikes; recovered to close above |
| US CPI & Jobs | April payrolls +115K (vs ~60K expected) · Unemployment 4.3% · Markets pricing zero Fed changes rest of 2026 · Rate hike risk persists if energy inflation stays elevated |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD RMG exporters watching for order diversion · Garment investment into BD tracking higher this quarter |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% base rate held · ART implementation talks completed May 5–7 in Dhaka · Legal challenge to ART before High Court |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy cost overruns · West Bengal state elections closely watched in Dhaka |
| Asian Markets (9 May) | Japan Nikkei at new records for the week (+~5.7%) on AI earnings and ceasefire optimism · Monday open expected to track Wall St record close |
| Israel–Lebanon | Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon · Fragile parallel front to Iran ceasefire — no deal yet |
| Saudi Arabia / RMG | Iraq offering Hormuz-transit buyers steep crude discounts · BD garment exports tracking strong YTD growth on China tariff diversion |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's ChatGPT for Excel and Google Sheets became generally available on May 5 for all plan levels including free. You type plain-language instructions in a sidebar inside your spreadsheet — "build a 3-year cash flow model," "find the error in this VLOOKUP," "summarise this 40-tab sales file" — and the AI edits your cells directly, without copy-pasting. It runs on GPT-5.5 and is available globally. For Dhaka professionals who work in finance, operations, and consulting and spend hours in spreadsheets, this is the most immediately practical AI release of 2026. The gap between people who use this fluently and those who do not will be visible to managers within weeks. Install it from the Excel ribbon under Add-ins → search "ChatGPT."
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Sunday morning in Dhaka, and the week opens with three things that don't fit together neatly. The remittance numbers are extraordinary — $30 billion in ten months. The energy numbers are alarming — $12 billion going out annually on fuel, and barely 2% of power coming from renewables. And now the IMF has walked away from the table, telling a brand-new government with a large majority: the time for reform is now. These three things are connected. The dollars coming in from workers abroad are financing an energy system that is structurally fragile. If oil stays above $100 for another year, those inflows will not be enough. What happens in the next two months — the FY27 budget, the IMF negotiations, the energy commission's report — will define more of Bangladesh's economic trajectory than anything in the past five years.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SATURDAY, 9 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Remittances cross $30 billion in under 11 months — FY26 may set an all-time record
Bangladesh has already received $30.08 billion in remittances in just the first ten months and six days of FY2025–26 — nearly matching the entire $30.33 billion received in all of last fiscal year. The first six days of May alone brought in $752 million, up over 20% year-on-year. April added $3.13 billion, the fifth consecutive month above the $3 billion mark. If the current pace holds for the remaining 55 days, total inflows could reach $35 billion by June 30 — a new record for Bangladesh by a wide margin. The previous monthly record, set in March, was $3.75 billion. The practical read: Bangladesh Bank is absorbing excess dollars to keep the taka from appreciating too sharply, protecting export competitiveness. Foreign reserves are rebuilding fast. The vulnerability has shifted — it is no longer the balance of payments. It is energy costs and stubborn inflation.
FY27 budget signals: NBR eyes wealth tax, inheritance tax, and 20% higher revenue target
With the FY27 budget expected in June, the National Board of Revenue is floating its most ambitious reform signals in years. NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan has indicated the government is considering reintroducing a wealth tax (abolished in 1999), introducing a new inheritance tax, and raising income tax rates for those earning over Tk 1 crore annually. The revenue target for FY27 is being set at Tk 6.04 lakh crore — a 20% jump from the current year's revised target. The tax-to-GDP ratio target is 9.2% for FY27, up from last year's 6.8%. Economists are sceptical: NBR sets ambitious targets every year without structural reform to back them. This FY27 budget is the first of the new BNP-led government and is expected to signal its economic philosophy.
NBFI depositors demand Bangladesh Bank action on frozen funds
An alliance representing over 12,000 depositors of six distressed non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) has formally urged Bangladesh Bank to take immediate steps to return their long-frozen funds. The issue adds to the growing pressure on the financial sector — Bangladesh's NPL ratio remains near a 25-year high of around 36% of total credit. Bangladesh Bank has not announced a formal mechanism yet.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.25 ৳
DBBL ready buying · May 7
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.96 ৳
▲ Mid-market · May 7
DSEX (last close, 7 May)
5,234 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · 2nd session decline
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Updated 7 May
Inflation Rate (Feb '26, BBS)
9.13%
▲ 10-month high · IMF FY26 est: 8.9%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ ~25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (8 May) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Fell ~7% on week as Iran ceasefire held; fresh clashes keep floor above $100 |
| WTI Crude (8 May) | ~$94.7/bbl ▲ Yahoo Finance close · Conflict premium intact |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · ~10th week · Iran controlling passage; 14 million bpd disrupted — IEA |
| Iran War / Ceasefire | Ceasefire technically in force; US struck Iranian military targets after Iranian fire on destroyers. Iran sent updated peace proposal via Pakistan mediators. Trump: "not satisfied with the offer" · No full deal yet |
| IEA Warning | War removing ~14 million bpd from global supply · Post-conflict production recovery expected to be slow due to infrastructure damage and insurer reluctance |
| Goldman Sachs | Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 days by end-May · Refined product shortages sharpest in South Asia, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Wall St (8 May close) | S&P 500 +0.84% → 7,398 (record) · Dow +0.02% → 49,609 · Nasdaq +1.71% → 26,247 · AI infrastructure stocks led gains |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held (Apr 29 decision) · 3rd consecutive hold · 4 dissents — most since 1992. New Chair Kevin Warsh set for May 15 |
| Bitcoin (8 May close) | ~$80,350 ▲ Off recent highs; US strikes on Iran pushed it below $80K briefly |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion opportunities |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% BD exporters met US trade officials in Dhaka this week to clarify zero-tariff terms on US-cotton apparel |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline; BD sought $3B additional ADB support for energy cost overruns from Hormuz disruption |
| Asian Markets (8 May) | Tracking Wall St recovery; Japan Nikkei rose ~5.7% in the week to new records amid AI earnings and Iran ceasefire extension hopes |
| Israel–Lebanon | Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon; parallel front to Iran ceasefire — outcome still uncertain |
| US CPI & Jobs | April payrolls +115K (nearly 2x expectations) · Unemployment 4.3% · Markets pricing no Fed change rest of 2026 · Rate hike risk if oil-driven inflation persists |
| RMG Export YTD | Strong growth tracking; garment investments rising with US tariff diversion opportunity from China |
| Saudi Arabia | Iraq offering steep discounts to term buyers willing to transit Hormuz; Saudi supply constrained by war-era rerouting |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
OpenAI's ChatGPT for Excel and Google Sheets became generally available to all users on May 5 — including the free tier. You can now type plain-language instructions directly inside a spreadsheet sidebar: "build me a 3-year cash flow model," "find the error in this VLOOKUP," "summarise this 40-tab sales report." The tool is powered by GPT-5.5 and edits cells directly rather than requiring copy-paste. For Dhaka's finance, operations, and consulting professionals who live in spreadsheets, this is the most practically useful AI release of the year. The practical signal: if you report to someone who uses Excel, start practising with this today. The people who figure it out first will look dramatically faster than those who don't — and the gap will be visible within months.
OpenAI · May 5, 2026 · chatgpt.com/apps/spreadsheets
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh has sent home $30 billion in remittances in under eleven months. That is not a statistic — that is a quiet structural shift. The people leaving Dhaka for Riyadh, Dubai, and Kuala Lumpur are now the country's most reliable economic engine. Meanwhile, 12,000 depositors of distressed NBFIs cannot access their own savings. Both of these things are true at the same time. A record dollar inflow and a frozen financial system. The war in the Gulf is still not resolved — oil above $100, the Hormuz still controlled by Iran, and the Fed chair changing on May 15 for the first time in years. This Saturday morning has more moving parts than most weeks. Pay attention to the FY27 budget signals — the wealth tax and inheritance tax proposals are the first serious redistribution conversation Bangladesh has had in a generation.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 8 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM
Weekend edition
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
New Deposit Protection Act: Tk 200,000 guarantee — but 12,000 frozen depositors are still waiting in the street
Bangladesh's new Deposit Protection Act, 2026 (Act No. 75 of 2026) was gazetted on May 6, replacing the 2000 law. It doubles the insurance ceiling from Tk 100,000 to Tk 200,000 per depositor, brings payout time down from 180 to 17 working days, and — for the first time — formally brings NBFIs into the protection framework (by July 2028). The law covers approximately 93% of all depositors nationally. On the same day it was gazetted, more than a hundred depositors of six distressed NBFIs — FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing, and International Leasing — gathered in silent protest in front of Bangladesh Bank wearing black cloth over their faces. Their funds have been frozen for nearly seven years. A total of Tk 15,370 crore remains locked in nine troubled NBFIs: Tk 3,525 crore from individuals, Tk 11,845 crore from banks and corporates. At least 35 depositors have reportedly died waiting for their money. A Tk 5,600 crore funding gap is stalling the liquidation process. The government has a July 2026 deadline on paper; it has no funded plan to meet it.
Financial account surplus hits $3.81B in Jul–Mar — a structural improvement in Bangladesh's external position
Bangladesh's financial account posted a surplus of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of FY26 (July–March), according to Bangladesh Bank data. This reflects a significant improvement in portfolio and FDI-linked inflows, driven partly by remittance-backed liquidity and multilateral loan disbursements. The current account has also returned to a modest surplus. Together, these two shifts represent the clearest structural improvement in Bangladesh's balance of payments since FY21. The risk: the ACU payment of $1.51 billion this week and higher energy import costs going forward will test whether the surplus holds into Q4.
US trade court strikes down Trump's 10% global tariff — Bangladesh's 19% deal now has a legal question mark
A US Trade Court ruled on May 7 that President Trump's broad 10% global tariff — the IEEPA authority underpinning it — violated federal law. The ruling creates a legal question over all tariff-related agreements signed under that executive order, including the Bangladesh ART deal of February 9. Malaysia had already declared its equivalent deal void. Bangladesh has not moved, and the government insists the 19% rate remains operative. But if the ruling is upheld on appeal, the foundation of Bangladesh's most important bilateral trade agreement is in legal jeopardy. Dhaka's commerce lawyers are watching the US appeals process very closely.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.82 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 8, 8 AM (09:03 UTC May 7)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.06 ৳
▲ Xe mid-market · May 8, 8 AM (09:34 UTC May 7)
DSEX (Last Close, 7 May)
5,234.10 pts
▼ −14.27 pts · −0.27% · 5th consecutive loss
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪৪,৭১১ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,216 · Updated May 7 (effective May 7, 2026)
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gross Forex (May 6, BB)
~$33.8B
▼ Post-ACU est. · $35.33B pre-payment · BPM6 ~$29.2B est.
Financial Account Surplus
$3.81B
▲ Jul–Mar FY26 · BB data
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Iran–US Hormuz Clash (May 7 night) | US Central Command says it "intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes" as three US Navy destroyers transited Hormuz · Iran claims US struck Qeshm Port and civilian areas · Both sides dispute who fired first · Peace deal talks now collapsed · NFP jobs report due 8:30 AM ET — market opens into live war escalation |
| Brent Crude (After-hours) | ~$104–106/bbl ▲ +2–4% in overnight futures after Hormuz clash — had been near $100 on peace hopes · Goldman: $140–150 scenario back on table if escalation continues |
| Brent / WTI (May 7 close) | Brent $100.06 (−1.19%) · WTI $94.81 (−0.28%) · Had fallen to ~$96–97 intraday on Iran peace deal optimism before partial recovery on Iranian official's hard line |
| Wall St (May 7 close) | S&P 500 −0.38% → 7,337.11 · Nasdaq −0.13% → 25,806.20 · Dow −313 pts → 49,596.97 · Pullback from records after Iranian official said Iran "will not let US leave without paying reparations" · Futures slipping overnight |
| April NFP (Today, 8:30 AM ET) | Forecast: +55,000 jobs (very weak) · ADP April: +109,000 · Jobless claims last week: 200,000 (better than expected) · Any miss will compound the already-volatile overnight session |
| US Fed (Confirmed) | Held at 3.50–3.75% · 8–4 split vote — first 4-way dissent since 1992 · Powell confirmed staying on Board as Governor after May 15 term end · Kevin Warsh Senate committee advanced; full vote pending |
| US Trade Court Ruling | US Trade Court struck down Trump's 10% global tariff (IEEPA authority unconstitutional) · Ruling covers the same executive order framework underpinning Bangladesh's ART deal · BD government has not commented yet · Malaysia declared its deal void months ago |
| Gold (International) | Gold +2%+ on May 6 amid Iran deal optimism · Brent-WTI spread near $12/bbl · Gold futures near $4,725/oz on May 6 · BAJUS raised BD gold 22k to ৳2,44,711/bhori (+Tk 2,216) effective May 7 |
| Bitcoin | ~$80,200+ · Higher amid risk-on from peace hopes earlier this week; overnight session now reversed |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent could fall to $75–80 if Hormuz reopens · BUT: $140–150 scenario fully revived if overnight Hormuz clash escalates into resumed hostilities |
| Asian Markets (May 8 open) | Opening cautiously lower; energy stocks recovering; markets tracking overnight Hormuz clash and pre-NFP uncertainty |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% rate · US Trade Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs creates new legal risk for ART deal · USTR delegation left Dhaka without activating zero-tariff clause · BD government watching US appeals process |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Weekend Read
Datadog — a software company most Bangladeshi professionals have never heard of — beat Q1 earnings by 18% and surged 28% this week because its AI-powered monitoring and observability tools are being embedded into every major cloud infrastructure buildout. What Datadog does is watch AI systems in real time and flag when they break. The practical implication: AI systems need AI managers. As your firm adopts AI tools — whether Microsoft Copilot, ChatGPT, or any workflow automation — the hidden cost is monitoring whether the AI is actually working correctly, consistently, and securely. In Bangladesh, this is still an unseen risk. Most teams deploying AI assistants have no process for checking whether the output has degraded, drifted, or started hallucinating over time. A simple rule for the weekend: if your team uses an AI tool for regular work, assign one person to audit a random sample of outputs monthly. You do not need Datadog to do that. You need a habit.
CNBC · Datadog Q1 2026 Earnings · TheStreet · May 7, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
On Wednesday, Brent fell 8% on a peace deal. On Thursday night, US and Iranian ships fired at each other in the Strait of Hormuz. The peace deal that oil traders were pricing in lasted about 36 hours. That is the tempo of this conflict. Meanwhile, 12,000 Bangladeshi depositors stood in front of Bangladesh Bank in black cloth, their faces covered, their savings frozen for seven years. A new law was gazetted on the same day. The law protects Tk 200,000 per depositor. The frozen amount per depositor, in many cases, is Tk 20 to 80 lakh. The law protects 93% of depositors nationally. These particular 12,000 are in the other 7%. The weekend arrives with the Strait unresolved, the IMF tranche still pending, and a US trade court having just struck down the legal basis of Bangladesh's most important tariff deal. Every number that matters is still in motion.
— Founder · Friday morning, weekend edition · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 7 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Last issue before weekend
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
This week in Bangladesh economy — May 4–7
Mon: ERL crude ship arrived · GDP slowed to 3.03% in Q2 ·
Tue: IMF blocks $1.3B tranche · PM named TIME 100 ·
Wed: USTR in Dhaka — zero tariff still unactivated · ADB commits $1.4B ·
Thu: ACU payment $1.51B — reserves to dip · DSEX 4-day losing streak · Iran deal hopes shift everything globally
Bangladesh pays $1.51B ACU import bill — reserves to dip below $35B today
Bangladesh Bank on May 6 confirmed the country has settled $1.51 billion in import bills under the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) — the bimonthly payment mechanism that clears regional trade dues with India, Iran, Sri Lanka and six other member states. Gross reserves stood at $35.33 billion at close of May 6; under the IMF BPM6 standard, they were at $30.67 billion. The ACU payment will cause both numbers to fall in the coming days, as settlement lag typically takes 2–3 business days to reflect. The previous ACU bill (Jan–Feb) was $1.36 billion, so this cycle's payment is higher — consistent with the higher crude import costs from the Hormuz crisis and alternative-route freight premiums. The timing is notable: Bangladesh is simultaneously receiving $1 billion in ADB budget support and awaiting the release of the delayed IMF tranche. Reserves are holding, but the margin is being tested from both sides at once.
DSEX loses Tk 6,300 crore in market cap over three days — four-session losing streak
The Dhaka Stock Exchange closed Wednesday at 5,248 points, extending its losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. Market capitalisation fell by approximately Tk 6,300 crore over three trading sessions. The DS30 blue-chip index dropped 8 points to 2,009. The NBFI (non-bank financial institution) sector was hit hardest — Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance and International Leasing all fell 8.69%. The CSE saw a 37% jump in turnover even as prices declined. EBL Securities noted broad-based selling pressure, absence of fresh catalysts, and investor caution over the IMF tranche delay, fuel crisis uncertainty and austerity measure fears. The DSEX has now fallen ~90 points in a week from its recent high of ~5,337.
Bangladesh seeks crude refining deal with India — Hormuz crisis forcing energy diplomacy
With Eastern Refinery running on alternative-route crude and Fujairah now a war-zone port, Bangladesh is in active talks with India to explore a crude refining arrangement — sending raw crude to Indian refineries and receiving refined products in return. This is a significant structural shift: Bangladesh has historically imported finished petroleum, not crude for domestic refining. The talks reflect the depth of the Hormuz supply shock and the government's acknowledgment that a single refinery and a single alt-route is not a durable solution for a country that imports 95% of its fuel.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.59 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 7, 8 AM (03:33 UTC)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.96 ৳
Live · May 7, 8 AM (01:00 UTC)
DSEX (Last Close, 6 May)
5,248.37 pts
▼ −18.86 pts · −0.36% · 4th consecutive loss
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Gross Forex (May 6, BB)
$35.33B
▼ ACU $1.51B payment — reserves to dip
IMF BPM6 (May 6)
$30.67B
▼ Pre-ACU adjustment · Will fall in 2–3 days
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Iran–US Deal (BREAKING) | Axios: US and Iran near preliminary agreement — framework for nuclear talks · Iranian FM: Tehran "evaluating" US 14-point proposal · Trump: deal "not certain" but "great progress" · Wall St surged; Brent crashed 8%+ on peace hopes |
| Brent Crude (May 6 close) | ~$101/bbl ▼ −8.1% on day — biggest single-day drop since March · Trading range May 6: $96.77–$110.84 · Down from $114.44 peak on May 4 · Early May 7: ~$100 |
| WTI Crude (May 6 close) | ~$93/bbl ▼ −9%+ · Trump paused "Project Freedom" citing deal progress · US emptying strategic reserves to cap prices |
| Strait of Hormuz | 23,000 seafarers still stranded · Two US-escorted ships successfully transited · If deal signed, Hormuz reopening expected in weeks, not days · Goldman: full shipping normalisation takes weeks |
| Wall St (May 6 close — RECORDS) | S&P 500 +1.46% → 7,365 (record) · Nasdaq +2.02% → 25,839 (record) · Dow +612 pts → 49,911 · AMD +18% · Disney +6.6% on Q2 beat · Micron +11% · Corning +17% (Nvidia optical deal) · Russell 2000 +1.75% · Best day since Feb |
| AMD · Disney · Corning | AMD Q1: Revenue $10.3B (+38%) · Disney Q2: EPS $1.57 beat; revenue $25.17B · Corning +17%: Nvidia partnership for AI optical fibre · Micron surpassed $700B market cap · Arm +8% after-hours on beat |
| US FOMC Result (May 7) | Decision today — market pricing 100% hold at 3.50–3.75% · Likely Powell's final FOMC as chair · New chair Kevin Warsh favours lower rates over time · No cut expected in 2026 |
| US CPI / Jobs (Upcoming) | April CPI due May 12 · NFP (non-farm payrolls) due May 8 · ADP April jobs: +109,000 — below expectations; labour market softening |
| Bitcoin (May 6) | ~$79,500 · Tracking equity recovery · Gold futures $4,530/oz (−1.1% on Iran deal hopes) |
| Asian Markets (May 7 open) | Opening sharply higher · Kospi +6.45% yesterday → 7,385 (record); Samsung +14%, crossed $1T market cap · Asia tracking Wall St records + oil price crash + Iran deal optimism |
| Spirit Airlines | In bankruptcy liquidation — forced to shut down by Iran-war jet fuel spike · Last flights Friday · 8,000 jobs lost · US aviation absorbing another low-cost collapse |
| BD–US Tariff | USTR delegation final day in Dhaka (May 5–7) · Zero tariff for US-cotton RMG still unactivated · Commerce Minister meeting today · NFP and ADB reports next week |
| Goldman Sachs | Iran deal: Brent could fall to $75–80 if Hormuz reopens and inventories rebuild · Downside scenario: demand destruction already in pipeline; correction likely regardless of war outcome |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Week's Signal
This week confirmed something important about AI's direction. Nvidia partnered with Corning to build dedicated optical-fibre AI infrastructure in the US. AMD reported 38% revenue growth driven entirely by AI data centre chips. Disney's new CEO used AI to cut content costs and streaming improved margins by 50% YoY. The common thread: AI is now a manufacturing and infrastructure story, not just software. For Dhaka's professionals, the practical translation is this — every company in your supply chain that supplies to the US, Europe or East Asia is now building AI into procurement, design, or quality control. Bangladesh's RMG sector will face buyers in 2027 who expect AI-assisted compliance documentation, factory sustainability reporting, and production forecasting as table stakes — not innovations. The time to start is not when buyers ask. It's now, when starting costs you nothing but time.
CNBC · TheStreet · AMD / Disney / Corning Q2 Reports · May 5–6, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The week started with a ship arriving with crude. It ends with a potential peace deal that could make that ship's alt-route unnecessary. Brent fell 8% in a day on a rumour. The stock market hit a record. Oil analysts who spent last Tuesday warning of $140 crude are now modelling $75. The thing about energy crises is that they can end faster than they begin — one agreement, one paragraph, one Axios story. But the structural damage stays: Bangladesh borrowed over $1.13 billion in redirected development funds to cover energy costs. The ACU bill just came in at $1.51 billion. We are paying for the crisis even as the crisis potentially ends. Friday before the weekend. Next week, April CPI arrives May 12. The IMF question does not go away. The USTR left Dhaka without activating the zero tariff. The numbers that matter are still outstanding.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Last issue this week · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
WEDNESDAY, 6 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
BGMEA asks visiting USTR delegation: where is our zero tariff? — the garment sector's real test begins now
A three-member delegation from the US Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch, arrived in Dhaka on May 5 for a two-day visit. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) had one central demand at Tuesday's meeting: clarify and activate the zero reciprocal tariff on apparel made with US-sourced cotton — promised in the February 9 Agreement on Reciprocal Trade but not yet operational. BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan was direct: "We will raise this issue with the USTR high-ups." At stake: Bangladesh exports $9.5 billion to the US annually, with garments accounting for 86%. The US trade deficit with Bangladesh reached $7.1 billion in 2025. The zero-tariff mechanism is the RMG sector's biggest prize from the deal — but the volume will be linked to how much US cotton Bangladesh actually imports. The USTR delegation will also meet Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir today for broader talks on labour rights, intellectual property and the two ongoing USTR investigations covering Bangladesh. The deal's credibility is being tested this week in the very meetings that were supposed to be a formality.
ADB commits $1 billion in budget support — Bangladesh's pivot away from IMF gains momentum
With IMF's $1.3 billion tranche now delayed indefinitely, Bangladesh has secured a separate commitment: the Asian Development Bank will provide $1 billion in budget support for FY26. Finance Minister Amir Khosru confirmed the ADB has committed $1.4 billion total for the fiscal year, with additional counter-cyclical financing available if the Middle East war deepens. Bangladesh made the case at ADB's 59th Annual Meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, arguing that the Iran conflict has raised its energy-related costs by an estimated $3 billion. ADB President Masato Kanda's $50 billion Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative — launched at the same meeting — puts Bangladesh's India grid interconnection at the centre of a regional energy security frame. The broader picture: Bangladesh is managing a multilateral financing triage, replacing the delayed IMF tranche with ADB support and World Bank emergency redirections.
Dubai airport passenger traffic fell two-thirds in March — the regional ripple for BD workers
Dubai International Airport saw its passenger traffic plunge by two-thirds in March 2026 — the direct consequence of Iran's attacks on UAE facilities. For Bangladesh, this is not an aviation statistic. Over 43% of Bangladeshi remittance workers are in Gulf countries. Dubai is the primary transit and employment hub. A sustained collapse in Gulf aviation and commerce does not stay in the Gulf — it arrives in Mirpur and Sylhet as lower remittance inflows within two to three months. The record April remittance numbers were built before the Fujairah attacks. May's number will be the first real signal.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.73 ৳
Exchange-rates.org · May 6, 8 AM (10:00 UTC May 5)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Xe · May 6, 8 AM (20:08 UTC May 5)
DSEX (Last Close, 5 May)
5,267.23 pts
▼ −10.58 pts · −0.20% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪০,৩৩৭৳
Last updated May 6 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ IMF: banking reform unmet
ADB Budget Support FY26
$1.4B
▲ Confirmed · Partial IMF tranche substitute
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 5 close) | $109.87/bbl ▼ −4% · US confirmed ceasefire "still holds" despite UAE attacks · Hegseth: Iran's actions fell "below threshold" of restarting major combat · Brent early May 6: ~$112, still elevated |
| WTI Crude (May 5 close) | $102.27/bbl ▼ −4% on ceasefire reassurances · Goldman: product shortages acute in South Africa, India, Thailand, Taiwan |
| Strait of Hormuz | Trump paused "Project Freedom" May 5, citing "progress" in Iran negotiations · Iran insists Hormuz stays shut until US lifts naval blockade on Iranian ports · US sank Iranian vessels Monday; ceasefire technically holds |
| Iran War Status | Ceasefire holds but strained · Two US commercial ships transited Hormuz with military escort · Iran: any further US "interference" is ceasefire violation · Global oil stocks ~101 days of demand; could fall to 98 by end of May — Goldman |
| Wall St (May 5 close) | Dow +0.73% → 49,298 (+356 pts) · S&P 500 +0.55% → 7,240 · Nasdaq +0.90% → 25,293 · Full Monday recovery · AMD +15% after-hours on Q1 beat · Russell 2000 +1.41% · 59.7% of US issues advanced |
| AMD Q1 2026 | Revenue $10.3B (+38% YoY) · EPS $1.37 beat $1.25 estimate · Q2 guidance $11.2B — beats again · Stock +15% after-hours · Data Center now primary revenue driver · Lisa Su: "inferencing and agentic AI driving accelerating demand" |
| US FOMC (May 6–7) | Meeting underway today · Market pricing 100% hold at 3.50–3.75% · Fed likely Powell's final meeting in chair role · No cut expected in 2026; rate hike odds now at 8% |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · April data due May 12 · Goldman: global demand down 3.6M bpd vs Feb · Oil product shortages building in Asia |
| Bitcoin (May 5) | ~$78,600 · Stable · Tracking equity recovery · Gold futures $4,579/oz |
| BD–US Tariff | USTR delegation in Dhaka May 5–7 · Zero tariff for US-cotton RMG still not activated · Key week for implementation talks · USTR also probing BD on forced labour and industrial overcapacity |
| Asian Markets | Opening higher Wednesday tracking Wall St recovery and oil pullback · Energy stocks mixed as Brent stayed above $110 |
| Dubai / Gulf Impact | Dubai airport −66% passenger traffic in March · Regional Gulf commerce slowing · First real remittance impact on BD expected in May figures |
| Goldman Sachs | Product shortages acute in India, Thailand, Taiwan, South Africa · $140–150 Brent scenario still live if disruptions persist |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
AMD just reported that its Data Center revenue grew 38% in Q1 2026, driven by demand for AI chips from hyperscalers. CEO Lisa Su named "inferencing and agentic AI" as the primary growth drivers. This is the practical signal: agentic AI — AI that takes multi-step actions on your behalf without being prompted at every step — is no longer a research concept. It is now the reason semiconductor companies are beating earnings estimates by double digits. For Dhaka's professionals, the most actionable version of this right now is in Microsoft 365 Copilot Actions (launched May 1), Google Workspace AI Agents, and Anthropic's Claude for computer use — all of which can now automate repetitive multi-step workflows like invoice processing, report compilation, and email triage. If your firm has not yet piloted one agentic workflow, the window before competitors do is measured in months, not years. AMD's numbers confirm the underlying infrastructure buildout is real and accelerating.
CNBC · AMD Q1 2026 Earnings · May 5, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The BGMEA walked into a meeting with the USTR yesterday and asked one question: why are we not getting what was promised? That is the entire Bangladesh-US trade story in a single room. The deal was announced with fanfare in February. Four months later, the mechanism for zero tariffs on US-cotton garments has not been activated. Our exporters are still paying what they were paying before the deal. Meanwhile, Dubai's airport lost two-thirds of its passengers in March. Nobody announced that here. It just happened. Remittances held in April. We will know what May looks like in a few weeks. A Wednesday morning in Dhaka, and we are watching two numbers very carefully: the date the zero tariff activates, and the date remittance data for May arrives.
— Founder · Wednesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
TUESDAY, 5 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
IMF blocks Bangladesh's $1.3B tranche — reform failure on revenue, banking and exchange rate
Bangladesh went to Washington for the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings expecting to lock in a $1.3 billion combined tranche by June. It came back empty-handed. The IMF told the Finance Ministry delegation directly that the next payout under the existing $5.5 billion programme will not come by June — the country has failed to meet agreed conditions on revenue collection, banking sector reform, withdrawal of electricity and gas subsidies, and a genuinely market-based exchange rate. Bangladesh has received $3.64 billion in five instalments; $1.86 billion remains. The IMF has instead proposed negotiating a new, stricter lending arrangement. Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said discussions are ongoing and that "we have not yet reached the stage of yes or no." The delegation also held talks with the World Bank about softer alternative financing. The signal from Washington is unmistakable: the BNP government's first major economic credibility test has not gone well, and development partners are watching closely.
ERL crude ship arriving today — Bangladesh's refinery to restart after 22-day shutdown
The vessel 'MT Ninemia', carrying 100,000 tonnes of Murban crude loaded at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, is expected to arrive at Chattogram outer anchorage today, May 5. The crude will be lightered to Eastern Refinery in Patenga for a restart of both main processing units, shut since April 13. Two more cargoes are lined up for May. The timing is tight: on May 4, Iran attacked UAE's Fujairah oil hub — the same port Bangladesh used as an alternative loading point. The alt-route via the Red Sea that Bangladesh has been using remains viable, but yesterday's escalation adds a new layer of risk to every future cargo.
PM Tarique Rahman named in TIME 100 Most Influential People of 2026
Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has been named among TIME magazine's 100 Most Influential People of 2026. The recognition comes three months after his BNP-led government was elected in the February 12 general election. Internationally, the listing lends profile to the new government's reform narrative. Domestically, critics note that IMF reform targets remain unmet, banking NPLs are near a 25-year high, and the cost of fuel imports has jumped significantly. Influence is easier to earn than macro credibility.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.72 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 5, 8 AM (12:05 UTC)
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.98 ৳
Xe mid-market · May 5, 8 AM (05:03 UTC)
DSEX (Last Close, 4 May)
5,277.81 pts
▲ +12.41 pts · +0.24% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ IMF: banking reform conditions unmet
GDP Growth FY26
3.03%
▼ Q2 FY26 (Oct–Dec '25) · BBS provisional
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 4 close) | $114.44/bbl ▲ +5.9% — Iran missiles hit UAE's Fujairah oil hub + tanker struck · Intraday high $114+ · 4-year high · Up ~65% since war Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (May 4 close) | $106.42/bbl ▲ +4.4% · Briefly surged above $107 then pulled back after US denied Iranian claims of striking a US frigate |
| Iran / UAE Escalation | Iran fired 12 ballistic missiles + 3 cruise missiles + 4 drones at UAE on May 4 · Fujairah oil hub hit, fire reported · Tanker struck by drones · UAE air defense intercepted missiles · 3 people injured · Iran fired "warning shots" at US Navy · US denied frigate was struck |
| Strait of Hormuz | Trump launched "Project Freedom" May 4 — US to escort stranded ships through strait · Iran warned any US "interference" violates the ceasefire · Two US-flagged ships transited successfully |
| Wall St (May 4 close) | Dow −1.13% → 48,942 (−557 pts) · S&P 500 −0.41% → 7,201 · Nasdaq −0.19% → 25,068 · Only Energy (+0.95%) and Tech (+0.02%) rose · Materials & Industrials worst hit |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Market pricing 100% chance of hold at May 6–7 FOMC meeting · Hawkish dissents last week; rate hike odds at 8% by year-end |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy +10.9% driving surge · April data due May 12 · Mortgage rates back above 6.5% on Middle East inflation fears |
| Fujairah Impact (BD) | BD's ERL rescue crude was loaded at Fujairah as alt-route port · Yesterday's attack adds risk to future alt-route cargoes · No disruption to MT Ninemia which already departed April 21 |
| Bitcoin (May 4) | ~$78,600 · Slight uptick · Gold futures $4,579/oz (−1.4%) as risk-off rotation was muted |
| Morgan Stanley Warning | Economist: "This is a massive, massive energy crisis. Markets are sleepwalking into recession." — Q1 earnings strong; Q2 will look very different |
| Goldman Sachs | Oil could spike to $140–$150/bbl if disruptions persist; global demand down ~3.6M bpd vs Feb levels; Hormuz exports at 4% of pre-war normal |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% rate intact · Malaysia "null and void" precedent stands · No BD parliament debate yet |
| Asian Markets | Opening lower Tuesday tracking Dow decline and Fujairah attack; energy and material sectors under pressure across Asia |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
On May 4, Palantir Technologies reported record Q1 revenue and profit — and its stock rose while the rest of the market fell. The reason matters for Dhaka's professionals: Palantir builds AI tools specifically for governments and large enterprises managing crises — energy supply chains, military logistics, risk triage. In a world where oil infrastructure is now literally being bombed, AI tools that help organizations model disruption and make decisions under uncertainty are the fastest-growing segment in enterprise software. The practical angle: your firm does not need Palantir-scale tools to benefit from this shift. Scenario-modeling tools, supply chain dashboards, and AI-assisted procurement risk tools are now available as mid-market SaaS. The energy crisis is making the business case for "decision intelligence" software undeniable — and the window to implement before a competitor does is narrowing.
TheStreet · Palantir Q1 2026 Results · May 4, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Yesterday Iran bombed Fujairah. That is the same port Bangladesh loaded its rescue crude from. Our ship had already left — it arrives today. But next month's ship? We do not know yet. The IMF blocked our loan. The government came back from Washington without the $1.3 billion it was expecting. Two things, one morning: the energy supply chain we depend on is being attacked at the port we rerouted to, and the financial lifeline we were counting on has conditions we have not yet met. Bangladesh is holding. But "holding" is not the same as stable. A Tuesday in May, and the margin is thinner than the headlines suggest.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
MONDAY, 4 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Eastern Refinery's crude rescue ship arrives this week — 75 days without a drop from the Gulf
Bangladesh's only state-owned refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL), has been shut since April 13 — the longest crude stoppage since the refinery opened. The last shipment arrived February 18. Two originally scheduled cargoes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE were cancelled when the US-Israel war closed the Strait of Hormuz. After 75 days of zero crude imports, the government secured 100,000 tonnes of Murban crude loaded from Fujairah, UAE — bypassing the Persian Gulf entirely via the Red Sea. The vessel 'MT Ninemia' departed Yanbu, Saudi Arabia on April 21 and is expected to anchor at Chattogram outer anchorage on May 5 or 6. Two additional 100,000-tonne cargoes are lined up for later in May. Officials confirm there is no immediate fuel shortage — the government pre-purchased 600,000 tonnes of refined diesel, octane and furnace oil in April at elevated spot prices. The bill for keeping the lights on just got bigger. The ERL's restart, once crude arrives, is the clearest signal yet that Bangladesh is building a workaround to the Hormuz blockade — one cargo at a time.
Bangladesh GDP slows to 3.03% in Q2 FY26 — industrial sector at its weakest in years
New BBS data (released April 6) shows GDP growth slowed to 3.03% in October–December 2025, the second quarter of FY26 — down from 3.53% a year earlier. The industrial sector, which expanded 6.82% in Q1, collapsed to just 1.27% growth in Q2. Services also slowed. Agriculture held up at 3.68%. Q1 was brighter at 4.96%, but the Q2 number raises questions about whether the BNP government's investment story can revive the momentum. Energy disruptions from the Iran war and still-elevated borrowing costs are the structural anchors pulling growth lower.
Visa–Asia Foundation MoU signals push for digital finance inclusion in Bangladesh
Visa has signed a memorandum of understanding with The Asia Foundation to advance digital financial inclusion across Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. The partnership will focus on economic empowerment and digital innovation. With Bangladesh's mobile financial services (MFS) sector already the most active in the region — bKash processes more transactions daily than most banks — the question is no longer whether digital finance works here. It is who gets left out of it.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.82 ৳
xe.com · May 4, 8 AM
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · May 3, 2:30 PM
DSEX (Last Close, 3 May)
5,265.39 pts
▼ −21.48 pts · −0.41% · DSE
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Last updated Apr 30 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high · 5 banks under BB watch
GDP Growth FY26
3.03%
▼ Q2 FY26 (Oct–Dec '25) · BBS provisional
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 3) | ~$108/bbl ▼ Eased on Iran peace proposal; weekly close below $110 after wild swings · Up ~60% since war began Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (May 3) | ~$101/bbl ▼ Iran reviewing US response to 14-point proposal · WTI fell toward $101 on optimism |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · OPEC+ agreed symbolic June output increase after UAE exit · Goldman: exports at 4% of pre-war normal |
| Iran War Status | Iran reviewing US response to its 14-point peace proposal · Ceasefire holds but Hormuz remains shut · Trump: naval blockade continues · War Powers 60-day clock — US argues ceasefire "terminated" hostilities |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Best month for S&P & Nasdaq since 2020 · Apple +3% on earnings beat |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC — likely Powell's final meeting · New Fed chair expected mid-May |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy +10.9% driving headline · April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin (May 1) | ~$78,178 Steady · ETF outflows last week · Still ~$18K below year-ago |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · ART deal signed Feb 9 · Parliament review demanded · Malaysia declared equivalent deal null and void · BD has not followed |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · BD RMG tracking US-China order diversion opportunity |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg $83/bbl forecast 2026 · Global oil demand may fall in 2026 for first time since COVID |
| Asian Markets (May 1) | Nikkei 225 +0.38% → 59,513 · Markets open Monday tracking Wall St records & Iran deal cautious optimism |
| BD Crude Shipment | 100,000T Murban crude (MT Ninemia) → due Chattogram May 5–6 via Red Sea alt-route from Yanbu · Two more 100K-tonne cargoes due later in May |
| India–BD | Diesel imports via India pipeline continuing; BD FM in Delhi this week for bilateral talks |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
Anthropic just connected Claude to Blender, Adobe, SketchUp and Splice — creative software used by designers, architects and music producers worldwide. The practical shift: AI is no longer a separate tab you switch to. It is now embedded inside the tools that produce actual deliverables. For Dhaka's creative professionals — agencies, architects, fashion designers, video producers — this matters because it means the bottleneck is no longer "learning AI." It is whether your team's workflow software gets an AI connector before a competitor's does. The broader signal from the week of April 26–May 2: AI tools are becoming AI workers inside existing software. OpenAI repositioned Sora into the GPT ecosystem rather than as a standalone product. Adobe deepened automation across its suite. The shift is from "generate content" to "complete workflows." If your firm is still using AI only as a writing assistant, you are one product cycle behind.
Anthropic.com · Boston Institute of Analytics · May 1, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Eastern Refinery stopped refining on April 13. The ship to restart it left Saudi Arabia on April 21. It arrives — if all goes well — on May 5. That is 22 days from shutdown to restart, covering roughly 2,400 km of alternative sea route because the normal one is a war zone. Somewhere in that number is the actual cost of the Hormuz crisis for Bangladesh: not a headline, not a press release. Just a ship taking the long way home to keep our petrol pumps running. Monday mornings should feel like a fresh start. This one feels like a stock-taking of how much we depend on things we do not control.
— Founder · Monday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SUNDAY, 3 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh's US trade deal faces parliament review demand — and a legal cloud from Washington
The agreement Bangladesh signed with the United States on February 9, 2026 — three days before the national election — is now facing two pressures at once. Domestically, independent MP Rumeen Farhana has demanded the deal be brought before parliament for scrutiny. The agreement fixed Bangladesh's reciprocal tariff at 19%, down from a threatened 37%, and commits Dhaka to purchasing $3.5 billion annually in US agricultural products (wheat, soy, cotton, corn) and $15 billion in energy over 15 years. Critics flag GMO import clauses and sovereignty constraints on digital and nuclear deals. Internationally, a US Supreme Court ruling in late February found the IEEPA authority underpinning such deals violated federal law — the same framework Malaysia used to declare its deal null and void. Bangladesh has not followed suit. For Dhaka's RMG sector, the 19% rate remains intact. For everyone else, the fine print is still being read.
City Bank posts 162% profit surge in Q1 2026 — but NPL backdrop remains severe
City Bank PLC reported a 162% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2026, driven by robust growth in core banking income. The result is one of the strongest quarterly performances among listed private banks. The contrast is sharp: while selective institutions are recovering, the sector overall still carries NPL levels around ~36% of total credit — a 25-year high. Bangladesh Bank has five banks under special observation. The banking picture in Bangladesh in 2026 is not one story; it is two very different stories told in the same room.
Boro paddy harvest threatened by extreme weather in haor region
The haor region had been on track for a strong Boro harvest in 2026. From late April, extreme weather disrupted the race to harvest, thresh, and dry paddy before floodwaters arrive. This matters for food security: the haor crop is a major annual contribution to the national grain stockpile. With food inflation still at 8.24% in March and soybean oil already at Tk 199/litre, any supply disruption from the domestic crop would add direct pressure on low-income households. One to watch closely through May.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.70 ৳
BB interbank close · Apr 30, 2:30 PM
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~17.97 ৳
Mid-market · Apr 30
DSEX (Last Close, 30 Apr)
5,286.87 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.57%
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,158 · Updated 30 Apr
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% · Food: 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high · 5 banks under observation
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 1 close) | ~$108/bbl ▼ Iran sends updated peace proposal via Pakistan; down from $114+ intraday high on Apr 30 |
| WTI Crude (May 1 close) | ~$102/bbl ▼ −3% on day · Trump: "not satisfied" with Iran's offer · Blockade stays |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vows Tehran retains control; oil up ~60% since war began Feb 28 |
| Iran War Status | Iran sent revised peace proposal via Pakistani mediators · Trump: "made strides but not satisfied" · US faces 60-day War Powers deadline · No deal signed |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Apple +3% on earnings beat |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 FOMC — likely Powell's final meeting · New chair expected mid-May · Markets pricing no cuts in 2026 |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core 2.6% · Energy drove surge; April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin (May 1) | ~$78,178 +2.4% on day · Still ~$18K below year-ago levels · ETF outflows last week |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% · ART deal intact; parliament scrutiny demanded · Malaysia declared its equivalent deal "null and void" · BD has not followed |
| US–China Trade | US tariffs on China ~45% · BD RMG watching for order diversion as Chinese exports reroute |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg $83/bbl for 2026; Hormuz closure upside risk vs. demand destruction downside |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all growth |
| Asian Markets (May 1) | Nikkei 225 +0.38% → 59,513 · Kospi: Japan holiday; markets tracking Wall St record & Iran deal hopes |
| Saudi Arabia | BD loading Murban crude from Aramco for May arrival via Red Sea alt-route; Brent-WTI spread at multi-year highs |
| Middle East / Israel | Israel defense minister signals possible fresh Iran strikes; war now entering week 10 |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
A Nebraska attorney was suspended from practice last month after his appellate brief contained 57 defective citations out of 63 — including 20 fabricated cases, fake quotations, and nonexistent statutes generated by AI. He denied using AI. The court didn't believe him. US courts have now imposed over $145,000 in sanctions against lawyers for unverified AI-generated filings in Q1 2026 alone. The signal for professionals in Dhaka is not "avoid AI." It is: AI output is your responsibility, not the tool's. Whether you are writing a tender document, a board note, or a legal brief — AI drafts require human verification before submission. The tool generates. You own the result. This is now being enforced, not just advised.
crescendo.ai · Nebraska Supreme Court · Q1 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
The Bangladesh-US trade deal was signed three days before a national election by an outgoing government, in secret, with a non-disclosure clause. Now parliament wants to see it. Malaysia already tore its equivalent deal up. Our RMG sector needs the 19% tariff to hold. But 700,000 tonnes of American wheat per year — for five years — is a commitment that will outlast this parliament, this government, and possibly this decade. Nobody was told. A Sunday morning in early May, and the most consequential trade agreement in a generation is still being read by the people it governs. That is the texture of this week.
— Founder · Sunday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
SATURDAY, 2 MAY 2026
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh repurposes $1.13 billion in WB & AIIB loans — the energy & food crisis is being priced in
In a decision that tells you more than any press release, the Finance Ministry on April 27 quietly redirected $1.135 billion from existing World Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank projects toward emergency energy and food imports. That is not a borrowing increase — it is a triage: funds already committed to development are now being diverted to keep fuel, gas, and fertiliser flowing as Middle East prices remain elevated. $785 million comes from 12 World Bank projects; $350 million from one AIIB project. Bangladesh activated the WB's Rapid Response Option on April 5, which allows up to 10% of ongoing funds to be redirected. Economists caution that hard-term borrowing now makes up a growing share of budget support — at interest rates of SOFR + 0.50% to 1.45%, these are not concessional loans. The underlying message: the Hormuz closure is no longer a global headline. It is now a line item in Bangladesh's budget.
April remittance on track for another record — $2.58 billion in 25 days
Bangladesh received $2.578 billion in the first 25 days of April 2026, averaging $103 million per day — up 14.5% year-on-year for the same period. Total FY26 remittance (July–April 25) has reached $28.79 billion, up nearly 20% over last year. The March all-time monthly record of $3.755 billion now looks like a new floor. The risk economists flag: over 60% of workers are in the Gulf — the very region where the war is being fought. Diversification into Europe is now a policy priority; a government seminar this week targeted sending one million skilled workers to Europe by 2031.
Soybean oil up again — Tk 199/litre as import costs bite
The government raised the retail price of bottled soybean oil by 2%, from Tk 195 to Tk 199 per litre, citing rising international prices for the heavily import-dependent commodity. This is the second edible oil adjustment in two months and adds to food inflation pressure that had already eased to 8.24% in March after peaking at 9.30% in February. With the Middle East conflict keeping freight costs elevated, non-food inflation actually rose slightly to 9.09% even as the headline number eased.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.80 ৳
Mid-market rate · May 2
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~16.92 ৳
▲ Mid-market · May 2
DSEX (Last Close, 30 Apr)
5,286 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.57%
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
▲ +Tk 2,158 · Updated 30 Apr
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Eased from 9.13% in Feb · Food 8.24%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
~36%
▲ 25-year high of total credit
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: ↓ revised · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (May 1) | ~$110/bbl ▲ Iran deal uncertainty; down from $114+ intraday high |
| WTI Crude (May 1) | ~$101/bbl ▲ Iran peace proposal via Pakistan; WTI fell ~2% on the news |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · US naval blockade continues; Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vows Tehran will retain control of the strait |
| Iran War Status | Iran sent peace proposal through Pakistani mediators; Trump faces 60-day War Powers deadline · Ceasefire holds but no deal signed; Trump vows blockade continues |
| US–China Tariff | US tariffs on China ~45%; BD manufacturers watching for order diversion opportunity into RMG |
| BD–US Tariff | 19% Deal intact · ART signed Feb 12; MP demands parliamentary review |
| Wall St (May 1 close) | S&P 500 +0.29% → 7,230 (record) · Nasdaq +0.89% → 25,114 (record) · Dow −0.31% → 49,499 · Apple +3% boosted tech |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% Held at Apr 29 meeting · Powell era ends mid-May; markets pricing no cuts in 2026 |
| US CPI (Mar '26) | 3.3% annual · Core CPI 2.6% · Energy up 10.9% driving headline; April data due May 12 |
| Bitcoin | ~$78,178 +$1,861 from yesterday · Down ~$18,000 YoY; ETF outflows last week |
| Goldman Sachs | Brent avg forecast $83/bbl for 2026; two-way risk — Hormuz closure upside vs. weaker demand downside |
| IEA Warning | Global oil demand set to decline in 2026 for first time since COVID — conflict wiping out all demand growth |
| India–BD Relation | India supplying diesel via pipeline; BD seeks to diversify crude sources amid Hormuz closure |
| Saudi Arabia | Key crude supplier to BD; BD loading Murban cargo from Aramco for May arrival via Red Sea alt-route |
| RMG Export YTD | FY26 remittance up ~20% YoY; RMG ~$40–42B/year; tariff diversion from China being watched closely |
| Middle East Situation | US naval blockade on Iranian ports in force; Iran supreme leader rules out giving up nuclear/missile capability; peace talks via Pakistan ongoing |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The AI model race moved so fast this year that the model you chose three months ago may already be outdated. As of May 2026, OpenAI shipped GPT-5.5 in April, Anthropic has released four major Claude updates since January, and Google's Gemini 3.1 now integrates natively inside Docs, Sheets and Gmail. The practical signal for Dhaka's professionals: stop picking one tool and being loyal to it. The firms getting value right now are using Claude for quality writing, Gemini for Google Workspace tasks, and GPT-5.5 for complex multi-step document work — mixing them by task. More importantly, Microsoft Agent 365 launched May 1, 2026, bringing autonomous multi-step AI workflows inside Excel, Word and PowerPoint. If your team uses Microsoft 365, that is the most immediate upgrade available this week — no new app required.
DataNorth AI · blog.mean.ceo · May 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Bangladesh just quietly redirected over a billion dollars of existing loans to pay for fuel. Not new borrowing — existing development money, pulled from roads and schools and hospitals, rerouted to energy imports. That is the war reaching us without a single bomb. Wall Street closed at a record last night. Nasdaq hit 25,000 for the first time. Apple beat earnings. And somewhere in our Finance Ministry, someone is calculating how many months of diesel we can afford before the next shipment. The Strait of Hormuz is not on the front page here. But it is in the budget. May arrives with the same unresolved tension: record remittances propping up reserves while every import costs more. We are holding, but not moving forward.
— Founder · Saturday morning · Dhaka
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
FRIDAY, 01 MAY 2026 · MAY DAY
5 sections
Under 300 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
Free forever
✊ Bangladesh Labour — May Day 2026 Snapshot
4.4M
RMG workers
82% of all exports
Tk 12,500
Min. monthly wage
~$102 · set Nov 2023
8.71%
Inflation (Mar '26)
Real wages: still falling
$47B
RMG exports FY25
World's 2nd largest
Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy · May Day
On May Day 2026: the worker who keeps Bangladesh running earns $102 a month — and real wages are falling
Today Bangladesh observes International Workers' Day — a public holiday, the stock exchange is closed, banks are shut. The country that is the world's second-largest garment exporter ($47 billion in FY25, 82% of total exports) employs 4.4 million workers in its RMG sector, more than 80% of them women. The minimum wage, set in November 2023, is Tk 12,500 per month — roughly $102. Against March 2026's 8.71% inflation, that wage has lost significant real purchasing power since it was set. Workers have repeatedly demanded Tk 25,000 as a living wage. The government approved Tk 12,500. This gap — between the value of the labour and the wage it earns — is the structural story that Bangladesh Day reports, budget speeches, and economic outlook documents tend to discuss in aggregate but not in the specific: the woman in Ashulia running a sewing machine for $102 a month is the reason Bangladesh's exports exist. On May Day, her name does not appear in any of the dashboards we track.
Oil touched $126 yesterday. Pulled back to $114. Both things are dangerous for Bangladesh.
Brent crude surged intraday to $126.41 on Thursday — a four-year high — driven by reports that the US was considering expanded military action in Iran. It then retreated to close at $114.01 as investors took profits. WTI closed at $105.07. The intraday spike is its own story: markets are pricing in the possibility of escalation beyond the current blockade. Even the "pullback" level of $114 is catastrophic for Bangladesh's import bill. Every $10 rise in Brent adds approximately $1.5 billion to Bangladesh's annual energy import cost. The Saudi crude cargo is due to arrive Chattogram today or tomorrow. Diesel stock remains at ~10 days. The cargo's arrival, if on schedule, is the single most operationally important event happening in Bangladesh this weekend — not any May Day rally.
Wall Street posts its best April since 2020. Apple beats. S&P crosses 7,200 for the first time.
The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,209.01 (+1.02%) — its first ever close above 7,200 and the best monthly performance since 2020. Nasdaq reached 24,892.31 (+0.89%). The Dow gained 790 points to 49,652.14 (+1.62%). Apple reported Q2 FY26 after market close: EPS $2.01 (beat $1.96), revenue $111.2B (beat $109.7B), iPhone revenue $57.0B, Services $31.0B. Separately, Tim Cook announced he will step down as CEO later in 2026; hardware chief John Ternus named as successor. Apple shares rose ~2% after-hours. US PCE inflation (Mar): 3.5% YoY. US GDP Q1: 2.0% (below 2.3% est.). Both confirm the Fed was right to hold.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
122.725 ৳
XE.com · BD market CLOSED — May Day holiday
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
17.95 ৳
XE.com · Apr 30, 01:40 UTC — most recent
DSEX (Apr 30, 2:30 PM)
5,286 pts
▼ −30.49 pts · −0.573% · Exchange CLOSED today
Gold 22k / Bhori (BAJUS)
২,৪২,৪৯৫ ৳
Unchanged · Eff. Apr 29 · BAJUS
Inflation Rate (Mar '26, BBS)
8.71%
▼ Down from 9.13% (Feb) · Q3 FY26 avg: 8.8%
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Bad Loans (NPL)
36%
▲ 9 NBFIs in liquidation
GDP Growth FY26
3.9–4.7%
WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7%
🏖 May Day — Public Holiday · DSE & CSE closed · Banks closed · BDT forex market inactive today · Rates carry forward from Thursday close
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude (Apr 30 close) | $114.01/bbl ▼ −3.5% — pulled back from intraday spike of $126.41 (4-year high) · still up 60% since war started Feb 28 |
| WTI Crude (Apr 30 close) | $105.07/bbl · US gasoline hit national avg $4.30/gal (4-yr high) · California $6.01/gal · ING: "only Hormuz reopening brings sustained relief" |
| Brent — Intraday Spike $126 | Hit $126.41 briefly Thursday on reports Trump considering further military action · pulled back as traders took profits · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz closed to mid-May · structural supply gap: 14.5M bpd Persian Gulf losses |
| Strait of Hormuz | Effectively closed · daily tanker transits in single digits (was ~3,000/month pre-war) · IEA: "largest supply disruption in history" · even ceasefire today = 4–6 months to market normalisation · ADNOC out-of-Gulf loadings for June confirmed |
| Iran War — 10th Week | Trump: blockade until nuclear deal · Iran: refuses nuclear talks as precondition · US CENTCOM requesting hypersonic missiles (first-ever deployed by US Army) · ceasefire holding but no talks · UAE exited OPEC today (May 1) |
| BD Energy TODAY | Saudi crude cargo expected Chattogram today or tomorrow · 25,000t diesel + crude · ERL on 2 of 4 units · Red Sea rerouting adds $3–4/bbl logistics cost · delivery is Bangladesh's most critical operational event this weekend |
| Wall St (Apr 30 close · Record) | S&P 7,209.01 (+1.02%, first close above 7,200, record) · Nasdaq 24,892.31 (+0.89%, record) · Dow 49,652.14 (+1.62%) · April: best month for US stocks since 2020 · Alphabet +9%, Qualcomm +16%, Caterpillar +10% · Meta −9%, Microsoft −4% |
| Apple Q2 FY26 BEAT | EPS $2.01 (beat $1.96) · Revenue $111.2B (beat $109.7B) · iPhone $57.0B · Services $31.0B (new record) · Tim Cook to step down later 2026 · John Ternus named CEO-designate · stock +2% after-hours |
| US PCE + GDP (Apr 30) | PCE Mar: +3.5% YoY (above Fed's 2% target) · Core PCE: +3.2% YoY · US GDP Q1: +2.0% (below 2.3% est.) · Fed's hold confirmed as correct call · rate cuts still unlikely in 2026 |
| UAE exits OPEC TODAY | Effective May 1 (today) · 59-year OPEC membership ends · UAE targets 5M bpd output unconstrained · Saxo: "removes the production quota straitjacket" · short-term irrelevant while Hormuz closed |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% (held unanimously Apr 29) · Powell's final meeting · 4 dissents (first since 1992) · Kevin Warsh cleared Senate Banking Committee · term ends May 15 |
| Goldman / JPMorgan | Goldman Q4 Brent avg: $90 (base) · JPMorgan: $150+ if Hormuz closed to mid-May · Goldman demand: April consumption ~3.6M bpd below February level · "extreme inventory draws" |
| BD–US Tariff / Trade | 19% · Trade deal intact · Boeing deal expected by Apr 30 (3rd terminal opening by Dec) · US wheat deal confirmed · RMG order diversion from China-tariff rerouting remains a BD opportunity |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
For Your Work
The Big Tech AI verdict is now complete with Apple's results. The picture across all five Magnificent 7 reporters this week is clearer than expected: cloud AI (Google, AWS, Azure) is generating real, accelerating revenue. Enterprise customers are paying. Google Cloud grew 63%, AWS 28%, Azure 40%. Consumer AI (Meta's Reels, Microsoft's Copilot consumer tier) is generating less certainty — hence the capex concern. Apple's AI story is entirely different: Tim Cook stepping down, with John Ternus (hardware) taking over, signals Apple is betting its next decade on device-level AI, not cloud AI. For Dhaka professionals: if you use Google Workspace, AWS, or Azure at work — the AI inside those tools is being invested in heavily and will improve faster. If your AI workflow is mostly ChatGPT consumer or Meta's tools — watch the guidance more carefully. The AI investment cycle is real. The returns are concentrating in enterprise cloud, not consumer interfaces. That is the May 1 morning signal.
CNBC · Yahoo Finance · Schwab · 24/7 Wall St. · April 30, 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
May Day. I think about her every year on this day — the woman in Ashulia who wakes up before five, boards a bus that is already overcrowded, operates a machine for ten hours, earns Tk 12,500 a month, and goes home to a family living on that. The brands she sews for have market capitalisations that dwarf Bangladesh's entire GDP. Apple just reported $111 billion in a single quarter. One quarter. She made $102 last month. I am not saying this to perform outrage. I am saying it because this newsletter is supposed to be honest about what Dhaka's professionals need to understand. And the most important thing to understand is that the economy we track every morning — the DSEX, the exchange rate, the Brent price, the Big Tech earnings — is built on a foundation that we almost never look at directly. Today we do. Happy May Day. The cargo from Saudi Arabia should arrive today. The diesel situation is still critical. We are back Monday.
— Founder · May Day morning · Dhaka · শ্রমজীবী মানুষদের প্রতি শ্রদ্ধা
ORAWEK
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ
THURSDAY, 02 APRIL 2026
5 sections
Under 280 words
8:00 AM · Weekdays
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Top Story
Bangladesh Business & Economy
Bangladesh hunts for fuel worldwide as energy crisis deepens
The government approved emergency imports of 2.60 lakh tonnes of diesel and crude — from Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and a UAE-based trader — to contain a worsening fuel crunch triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. Long queues persist at pumps across Dhaka despite official assurances of no shortage.
Energy import bill to surge $4.8B this year
Annual fossil fuel import costs are projected to rise 40% from 2025 levels — equal to 1.1% of GDP — if oil prices stay elevated. The country’s only refinery holds crude for just 17–18 days at current pace, per Zero Carbon Analytics.
Trump signals Iran wind-down; Brent dips below $100
Trump said overnight the US would leave Iran “in two to three weeks,” pushing Brent below $100/barrel for the first time in a week — a rare relief for Dhaka’s import bill and inflation outlook.
Economy Watch
Data Point or Policy Update
USD / BDT
123.00 ৳
▲ Taka at 52-wk high
DSEX Close (01 Apr)
5,203.96 pts
Prev. session close
Inflation
9.13%
▲ 10-month high
Policy Rate
10.00%
Held — Bangladesh Bank
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Morning
| Brent Crude | $112–115 ▲ +55% Mar |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 ▲ +53% Mar |
| USD / BDT | 122.70 ▲ Taka weak |
| US Fed Rate | 3.50–3.75% — held |
| BD Jet Fuel | Tk 202/L ▲ +80% Mar |
| US–China Tariff | 33.9% ETR ▲ probe on BD |
| RMG Export YTD | $10.69B ▲ Jan '26 |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Use This Now
Google’s NotebookLM (now on Gemini 3) supports a 1 million token context window — upload 50 PDFs, reports, or policy docs and query them all at once. For Dhaka professionals dealing with regulatory filings, BB circulars, or earnings reports, this is a free, practical research tool worth trying today: notebooklm.google.com
google labs · march 2026
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Every morning this week I’ve woken up to a fuel crisis getting worse and an oil price getting slightly better. The gap between what the government says and what people feel at the pump is enormous. That gap is where trust goes to die — and where smart professionals should be paying attention.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka
ORAWKE · DIGEST
ভোরের সংক্ষেপ · The Morning Brief · The Aura of Waking.