ORAWEK
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THURSDAY, 21 MAY 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
NBR set to miss tax target for the 10th year in a row — and FY27's Tk 6.04 lakh crore goal is being called "near-impossible"
The National Board of Revenue is on course to miss its FY26 revised tax target of Tk 5.54 lakh crore for the tenth consecutive fiscal year, according to reports published Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite 12–13% year-on-year growth in collections, cumulative July–February receipts of Tk 2.54 lakh crore fell 28% short of the period target. Net deficit financing in the same period rose 67% year-on-year to Tk 1.05 lakh crore, with Tk 88,309 crore drawn from the banking system. CPD's Additional Director called the proposed FY27 target of Tk 6.04 lakh crore — implying 42% growth — a "near-impossible revenue challenge." The NBR is weighing new tools for FY27: a wealth tax, an inheritance tax on high-value property transfers, and phasing out ad hoc exemptions. Meanwhile, the government is considering reintroducing an amnesty for undisclosed income invested in selected sectors — drawing sharp criticism from economists and anti-corruption groups, but support from the real estate lobby, which warns the housing sector could collapse without it.
Falsely listed firms trade most — Khosru and PM's Finance Adviser declare zero tolerance on fraudulent reporting
At the FAR (Financial Accounting and Reporting) Summit 2026 on Tuesday (May 20), Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury alleged that several companies entered the stock market through false disclosures and misleading financial representations, which has discouraged fundamentally strong companies from listing and weakened price discovery. He warned that unreliable financial reporting and manipulated valuations had pushed both the banking and capital markets into crisis. PM's Finance Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir declared zero tolerance against fraudulent financial reporting, saying the Financial Reporting Council has been empowered with full legal and administrative independence. The summit follows separate reports that global investors — including JPMorgan-linked funds — are eyeing Bangladesh but cite the need for credible audits and trustworthy financial data as the primary prerequisite for capital deployment.
Draft Import Policy 2026–29 proposes doubling garment value-addition threshold to 30% — RMG leaders push back hard
The government's draft Import Policy Order 2026–2029 proposes sharply raising minimum value-addition requirements for RMG exports made from imported raw materials: from 15% to 30% for children's garments, and from 20% to 30% for knit and woven garments. Exporters who fail to meet the new threshold would lose both cash incentives and duty benefits on raw material imports. A Commerce Ministry stakeholder meeting took place on Wednesday. BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan called the 30% target achievable for knitwear but entirely unrealistic for woven garments under current market conditions. Separately, a new study presented on May 19 found rooftop solar could meet up to 14% of RMG factories' electricity demand, yet currently only 3% of factory power comes from solar — a gap with both cost and ESG implications as H&M and other major buyers demand 25% carbon reduction by 2030.
📌 Tax Signal — Ten consecutive misses and a 42% FY27 target tells you one thing: Bangladesh's fiscal space is structurally closed. Wealth and inheritance taxes are right in principle; collecting them is the harder problem. Watch for the black-money amnesty clause in the June budget — if it returns, it signals the government has already privately conceded on the formal tax base.
📌 RMG Signal — The value-addition push is the right long-term direction; the timeline is the problem. A blanket 30% threshold in woven garments without industry transition support could push orders toward Vietnam faster than any tariff deal. Watch the final policy wording closely in June.
Economy Watch
Data Point · Updated 21 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
~122.90 ৳
BB auction floor rate · Stable · 30-day range: 122.70–123.05 · BB continues daily dollar purchases; taka deliberately capped from appreciating
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.08 ৳
Xe / currency.wiki mid-market · 20 May AM · 30-day range: 17.99–18.10 · Stable for BD–China importers
DSEX Close — May 20
5,222.38 pts
▲ +10.84 (+0.21%) · Modest recovery from May 18 close of 5,203 · Banking sector overhang persists · FAR Summit transparency signals could be a mild positive catalyst
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,35,963 ৳
▼ BAJUS rate effective 16 May · Down Tk4,374 from previous rate · International gold ~$3,250/oz range as Hormuz hopes ease safe-haven demand · Watch for BAJUS revision this week
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
9.04%
▲ Up from 8.91% (Mar) · Food inflation: 8.24% · May print likely to reflect Hormuz-linked fuel cost pressure
Policy Rate (BB)
10.0%
BB repo rate · Unchanged · Business lobby pushing for lending cap relief · Next MPC review pending
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Partly reflects relaxed rescheduling rules · Sector CRAR: −2.9% (negative)
GDP Growth FY26
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Thursday Morning
| Brent Crude — May 20 TradingEconomics / OilPrice.com · 20 May 2026 | ~$105.54/bbl ▼ −5.16% · Fell sharply Wednesday on Trump's "final stages" deal comments and satellite data showing three supertankers crossing Hormuz · Still +62% year-on-year · Supply optimism rising but ADNOC CEO warns full recovery of ME oil flows unlikely before late 2027 · Global inventories declining at record pace (IEA) |
| WTI Crude — May 20 TradingEconomics · 20 May 2026 | ~$97.33/bbl ▼ −6.55% · Fell below $100 Wednesday — second straight session of losses · US SPR depleted 6.6% year-on-year · Crude inventories fell 4th straight week · Three supertankers exited Hormuz with full cargoes (Chinese & South Korean-flagged vessels) |
| Wall St — Wednesday 20 May TradingEconomics / CNBC · 20 May 2026 | Dow ▲ +1.2% · S&P 500 ▲ +1.0% · Nasdaq 100 ▲ +1.2% · Stocks rallied on falling oil prices and optimism about US–Iran deal · TJX surged 6% on earnings · Nvidia posted Q1 FY27 results after close: EPS $1.87 (beat est. $1.76), revenue $81.62B (beat est. $79.18B) · Q2 revenue guidance $89.1B–$92.8B vs est. $87.3B · 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.19% — highest in 19 years |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve · Apr 29, 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held at Apr 29 meeting (3rd consecutive hold) · US CPI +3.8% YoY (Apr); Core CPI +2.8% · PPI +6.0% YoY (Apr) — largest MoM jump since Mar 2022 · CME FedWatch: zero cuts expected in 2026; 45% chance of a hike priced in |
| Bitcoin — May 20 Fortune / Yahoo Finance · 20 May 2026 | ~$77,070–77,430 · Opened Wed at $76,757, rose to $77,428 by 7 AM ET · Down ~$30K from Oct 2025 ATH of $126,025 · Fear & Greed: Fear zone · Iran deal hopes gave modest crypto lift; bond yield pressure a drag |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran Deal Al Jazeera / Yahoo Finance · 20 May 2026 | Most significant development in weeks — Trump told US lawmakers deal will happen "very quickly." VP Vance confirmed active Tehran–Washington talks. Three supertankers (2 Chinese, 1 South Korean) crossed the strait Wednesday, carrying ~4M barrels of crude — the highest-volume day since war began (Feb 28). Iran evaluating Washington's latest proposal draft; deal framework includes Hormuz reopening, nuclear moratorium, US lifting sanctions & releasing frozen funds. Senior Iranian official rebuffed deal initially but talks continuing. No ceasefire announcement yet. BD implication: if Brent stays near $100 post-deal, LNG costs ease — key for the May–June inflation print. |
| US–China Trade / BD Tariff US Embassy Dhaka / CNBC · May 2026 | US–China tariffs remain ~45% · BD–US: 19% base tariff rate still in effect · Section 122 appeal live · BD still #2 US apparel supplier but capturing minimal China-diversion share; Vietnam and Cambodia gaining · BD–US trade talks ongoing |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA IEA / Reuters · May 2026 | IEA: global inventories declining at record pace despite partial Hormuz reopening signals · Goldman Sachs: energy shock inflationary throughout 2026 · JPMorgan: demand destruction beginning at $100+ Brent · Saudi Arabia output lowest since 1990 · EIA projects Brent ~$89/bbl by Q4 if Hormuz fully reopens |
| Asian Markets / India–BD TradingEconomics · May 21 AM | Asian markets expected to open positive Thursday on Nvidia beat + oil decline · India supplying diesel via pipeline amid BD LNG shortage · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy overruns · Nvidia results key signal for Asian tech stocks — beat may lift sentiment broadly |
| Israel–Lebanon / Middle East Reuters · 19–20 May 2026 | Netanyahu coalition under strain from ultra-Orthodox draft dispute · Dubai airport still recovering from UAE infrastructure attacks · US–China issued joint Hormuz statement but no enforcement mechanism · Conflict 12th+ week with no formal ceasefire timeline · G7 finance ministers: economic recovery requires "lasting end to conflict" |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
This Week
Nvidia just confirmed that the global AI infrastructure boom is not slowing down — and that matters directly for every Bangladeshi company thinking about AI tools in the next 18 months. After Wednesday's market close, Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.62 billion (beating estimates of $79.18B) and guided Q2 revenue to $89–92.8 billion, well above Wall Street's $87.3B target. The four largest hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta — have collectively committed $725 billion in AI infrastructure capex for 2026. In plain terms: the cloud providers powering every AI tool from ChatGPT to Gemini to Copilot are spending at a level that virtually guarantees cheaper, faster, and more capable AI services over the next 12–18 months. For a procurement officer, finance manager, or operations lead in Dhaka: the AI tools you're evaluating today will be significantly more capable and cheaper to run by Q1 2027. The practical takeaway is not to wait for the "final" version — it's to build the internal skill of evaluating and integrating AI tools now, so your team is ready when costs drop further. One specific action: if your company uses Microsoft 365, Copilot features are already being embedded into Excel, Word, and Teams at no extra cost for many enterprise plans — check with your IT lead this week whether they're activated.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
“
Ten years in a row. Not nine. Ten. The NBR has missed its tax target every single fiscal year for a decade, and we are still setting the next target 42% higher than the one we just missed. There is something almost ritualistic about it — the announcement, the ambition, the miss, the revision, the repeat. What I keep thinking about this Thursday morning is not the number. It is the signal that number sends to every investor, every CFO, every professional in this country who has to plan around government policy. Predictable revenue shortfall means unpredictable borrowing, which means unpredictable interest rates, which makes every business plan a guess. The wealth tax and inheritance tax ideas are worth trying. But the real reform is not a new tax — it is making the existing ones stick.
— Founder · Thursday morning · Dhaka