ORAWEK
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TUESDAY, 19 MAY 2026
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Bangladesh Business & Economy
NEC approves Tk 3 lakh crore ADP for FY27 — largest development budget in Bangladesh's history, up 50% from revised FY26
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman chaired the maiden NEC meeting of the new elected government on Monday (May 18), approving a Tk 3,00,000 crore Annual Development Programme for FY2026-27 — a 50% jump over the revised FY26 ADP of Tk 2,08,936 crore, and the largest in the country's history. Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said the budget includes Tk 1,90,000 crore from government sources and Tk 1,10,000 crore from project loans and grants. The full FY27 budget framework stands at Tk 9.30 lakh crore. The ADP is built around a Five-Year Strategic Framework for Reform and Development covering state restructuring, judicial reform, administrative digitalisation, and employment generation. Khosru acknowledged the government inherited around 1,300 projects — many linked to inefficiency, wastage, or corruption — and pledged to cancel those lacking economic justification. Critical context: FY26 ADP implementation stood at only 36.19% through July–March — the lowest in five years. The government is betting that political legitimacy and stronger institutional accountability will close that gap in FY27.
BB purchases another $100M on May 18 — FY26 cumulative dollar buying now ~$5.98 billion
Bangladesh Bank purchased $100 million from six commercial banks on Monday (May 18) at a rate of Tk 122.75 per dollar, confirmed by BB Executive Director and Spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan. The purchase brings Bangladesh Bank's total dollar buying in FY2025-26 to approximately $5.98 billion — up from $5.88 billion as of May 14. BB has been systematically buying dollars since July 2025 to prevent taka appreciation from dampening remittance and export incentives. Implication for treasurers: the Tk 122.75 auction rate continues to serve as the effective market floor for USD/BDT. The taka is stable but deliberately managed — not freely floating.
Experts warn: Bangladesh must reform business environment or job crisis will deepen
A new analysis published Tuesday warns that policy uncertainty, a weak banking sector, and excessive protectionism are blocking investment and job creation in Bangladesh. The expert assessment identifies three structural barriers holding back private-sector hiring: unpredictable regulatory changes that deter long-term capital allocation; the banking sector's capital hole (negative CRAR, 30.60% NPL ratio) that constrains trade finance; and high protective tariffs that shield incumbents but suppress competition and productivity growth. The warning lands the same week the government announced a Tk 3 lakh crore ADP, highlighting the tension between public-investment ambition and the private-sector enabling environment it requires to succeed. Without business environment reform, the government's 1 crore jobs target over 18 months faces structural headwinds that no budget size can overcome alone.
📌 ADP Reality Check — Tk 3 lakh crore is an extraordinary ambition. Bangladesh has never implemented more than 63% of any annual ADP. Project directors with accountability dashboards and cancellation of "zombie" projects are the right moves — but the test is execution from July 1. Watch the July–August 2026 implementation numbers.
📌 Dollar Auction Signal — BB's continued daily dollar purchases at Tk 122.75 cap taka appreciation. Importers should not bet on a stronger taka in H1 FY27; budget USD costs at current rates or marginally weaker.
Economy Watch
Data Point · Updated 19 May, 8 AM
USD / BDT
~122.75 ৳
BB auction rate, 18 May · Xe mid-market: ~122.79 · 30-day range: 122.67–123.18 · Taka stable; BB buying at 122.75 floor daily
YUAN / BDT (CNY)
~18.03 ৳
Xe mid-market · 19 May AM · 30-day range: 17.94–18.09 · CNY slightly softer vs May 17; BD–China importers: marginally unchanged
DSEX Close — May 18
5,203.11 pts
▼ −23.07 (−0.44%) · Banking sector overhang continues · 2nd straight session decline · Watch banking-reform news for floor signal
Gold 22K / Bhori
2,38,121 ৳
▼ Still at May 7 BAJUS rate · International gold ~$4,549/oz (May 18 futures) · Gold easing slightly on tentative US–Iran signals; watch for BAJUS revision mid-week
Inflation Rate (Apr '26)
9.04%
▲ Up from 8.91% in Mar · Food inflation: 8.24% · Hormuz-linked fuel costs add upward pressure for May print
Policy Rate (BB)
10.0%
BB repo rate · Unchanged · Business lobby pushing for 12% lending cap · Next MPC review pending
Bad Loans (NPL) Dec '25
30.60%
▼ Down from 35.73% peak (Sep '25) · Decline partly from relaxed rescheduling rules (2% down-payment) · Sector CRAR: −2.9%
GDP Growth FY26
3.7–4.7%
Fitch: 3.7% · WB: 3.9% · ADB: 4.0% · IMF: 4.7% · FY25 actual: 3.49%
Global Signal
Overnight — What Reaches Dhaka by Tuesday Morning
| Brent Crude — May 18 TradingEconomics / OilPrice.com · 18 May 2026 | ~$107–108/bbl ▼ · Pulled back from Mon AM high of $111+ after Iranian media reported US proposed a temporary oil-sanctions waiver · Settled ~$107.71 Monday · Still +8% on the week prior · Hormuz remains largely closed · Trump warned Iran: "the clock is ticking, get moving FAST" · Tehran communicating via Pakistani mediators · UAE nuclear facility attacked over the weekend · IEA: global oil inventories declining at record pace |
| WTI Crude — May 18 TradingEconomics / OilPrice.com · 18 May 2026 | ~$105–107/bbl · Swung between $105–108 Monday on Iran sanctions-waiver reports · Current OilPrice.com reference: $107.35 · 52-week range: $54.98–$117.63 · US gasoline avg ~$4.52/gal · Oil demand destruction signals beginning; JPMorgan notes consumer adjustment |
| Wall St — Monday 18 May close CNBC / TheStreet · 18 May 2026 | Dow 49,686 ▲ +0.32% · S&P 500 7,403 ▼ −0.07% · Nasdaq 26,091 ▼ −0.51% · Tech sector led declines (−1.1% intraday) · Seagate −7%, Micron −6% on memory capacity concern · 10Y Treasury yield hit 52-week high surpassing 4.13% · 20Y/30Y at highest since 2007 · Nvidia earnings expected Wednesday · Walmart earnings Thursday |
| US Fed Rate Federal Reserve / CME FedWatch · May 2026 | 3.50–3.75% · Held Apr 29 (3rd consecutive hold) · Kevin Warsh now Fed Chair · US CPI +3.8% YoY (Apr) · PPI +6.0% YoY — largest monthly MoM jump since Mar 2022 · CME FedWatch: 45% chance of a hike now priced; zero cuts expected in 2026 |
| Bitcoin — May 18–19 Fortune / ycharts · 18–19 May 2026 | ~$76,900–77,350 ▼ · Down from $80,120 (May 15) · Fell below $77K on Monday on macro headwinds (oil surge, bond selloff) · US 10Y yield spike dragging crypto · Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Fear zone) · ATH: $126,200 (Oct 2025) |
| Strait of Hormuz / Iran War OilPrice.com / Reuters · 17–18 May 2026 | Effectively closed · US–Iran talks continuing via Pakistan mediators · Iran dropped demands for US financial compensation; now seeking economic concessions and international guarantees · UAE energy infrastructure attacked over the weekend · IEA: supply shock largest on record · G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris Monday called Hormuz reopening "of utmost importance" · Eurogroup President: global economy "severely exposed" · No ceasefire timeline visible |
| US–China Trade / BD Tariff US Embassy Dhaka / CNBC · May 2026 | US–China tariffs remain ~45% post Trump–Xi summit · BD–US: 19% base tariff rate still in effect · BD still ranked #2 US apparel supplier but capturing zero incremental China-diversion share; Vietnam and Cambodia winning that race · Trump Section 122 appeal still live · BD–US trade talks continuing |
| US CPI & Core CPI — Apr '26 BLS · Released 12 May 2026 | Headline CPI +3.8% YoY (+0.6% MoM) · Core CPI: +2.8% YoY · Gasoline +28.4% YoY · Real wages fell 0.3% YoY · PPI (Apr): headline +6.0% YoY, +1.4% MoM — largest monthly jump since Mar 2022 · Zero Fed cuts priced for 2026; 45% chance of hike |
| Goldman Sachs / IEA Warning IEA / Reuters · May 2026 | IEA (Monday, May 18): confirmed global inventories declining at record pace · EIA projects Brent $89/bbl by Q4 if Hormuz reopens · Goldman: energy shock inflationary throughout 2026 · JPMorgan: demand destruction beginning · Saudi output at lowest since 1990 · BD risk: LNG costs, jet fuel, shipping insurance all rising — key variable for May inflation print |
| Asian Markets / India–BD TradingEconomics · 18–19 May AM | US futures flat-to-soft Tuesday AM · Nikkei under pressure from oil/yield surge · EM dual squeeze: firm USD + oil shock · India supplying diesel via pipeline amid BD LNG shortage · BD seeking $3B additional ADB support for energy overruns · Nvidia earnings Wednesday — key AI-sector signal for Asian tech stocks |
| Middle East / Israel–Lebanon Reuters · 17–18 May 2026 | Netanyahu coalition crisis deepening — ultra-Orthodox draft dispute threatens early elections · Dubai airport still recovering (passenger traffic down ~two-thirds since UAE attacks) · US and China issued joint Hormuz statement but no enforcement mechanism · Conflict entering 13th+ week with no ceasefire timeline · G7 finance ministers statement calls for "lasting end to conflict" as economic priority |
AI This Week
Practical Intelligence — Never Hype
Happening Today
Google I/O 2026 keynote is today (May 19, 10 AM PT / 10:30 PM Dhaka time) — and "Gemini Intelligence" is the shift that matters most for Bangladeshi professionals this week. The keynote is expected to go deeper on Gemini Intelligence, Google's new agentic AI system already previewed at the Android Show last week. Gemini Intelligence is not a chatbot you open. It is an always-on AI layer embedded in Android 17, Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Chrome, and new Googlebook laptops — it works in the background, prepares meeting briefs from your emails, monitors tasks, and handles multi-step delegation without waiting for you to type a prompt. Google is also expected to announce a new flagship Gemini model (possibly Gemini 3.5 Pro or a Gemini 4 designation), upgraded Veo video generation, agentic developer tools, and Android XR smart glasses. For a finance manager or operations lead in Dhaka: these tools are already available in Bangladesh via Gemini on Android. The practical shift — from reactive AI (you ask, it answers) to proactive AI (it acts without being asked) — is beginning now. One important caution before enabling always-on access: Google's own screens warn that Gemini Intelligence "may share sensitive information with third parties." Before connecting your work Gmail or Drive to any agentic AI, check whether your employer's data policy permits it.
ORAWEK Note
A Real Observation. From a Real Person.
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This Tuesday morning I keep thinking about the gap between the size of a plan and the machinery required to execute it. A Tk 3 lakh crore ADP is extraordinary on paper — up 50% from what we barely spent two-thirds of last year. The government is right that ambition is a precondition for recovery. But Bangladesh has never had a budget execution problem that more money alone solved. The problem has always been the same: project directors without accountability, procurement cycles that outlast political will, and ministries that move in their own time regardless of what the dashboard says. The good news is this government seems to know this. The accountability criteria, the cancellation of zombie projects, the IMED dashboards — these are the right moves. The test is not the announcement. It is July 1.
— Founder · Tuesday morning · Dhaka